Jump to content

March 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Wow, the latest Euro is up to 73º here on Saturday.  The models are wrapping the system up pretty good, and slowing it.  The GFS isn't quite as warm here, but still gets 70s into southeast Iowa.

 

In addition, the Euro has us no lower than mid 50s for the next ten days.  I'll gladly take that.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, the latest Euro is up to 73º here on Saturday.  The models are wrapping the system up pretty good, and slowing it.  The GFS isn't quite as warm here, but still gets 70s into southeast Iowa.

 

In addition, the Euro has us no lower than mid 50s for the next ten days.  I'll gladly take that.

Hope you score some much needed warmth and higher DP's!  I love the smell of Spring warmth that has a touch of humidity and esp after freshly cut grass.  Taking cruises out in the country side has that "smell" in the air that I yearn for each year while going through the spring shoulder season.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven’t checked it out, but is it as prevalent in the tropics?

It's every where, but the numbers in the tropics are lower. But the issue is a majority of those countries around the tropics also have terrible health networks. I will note more than anything sun gives our bodies vitamin D which is a huge immune booster.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this time the mean here at Grand Rapids for March is at 37.2 that is a departure of +2.9. At Muskegon the mean is 36.6 and that is a departure of +2.8. To the east at Lansing the mean there is 37.6 for a departure of +4.0. While here in our area the snow is all gone. (there may be a few parking lot snow piles yet. The last time I was at the store early last week there were still some parking lot piles left) anyway there is still a lot of snow on the ground in the UP Sault Ste Marie is still reporting 18” and over at Marquette they report 32” on the ground and at Munising they reported 35” on the ground. It looks like the snow on the ground is not very good looking here are the web cams from Munising

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

And at Houghton there looks to be a lot of dirty snow with bare spots

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

The sun is now out here with a temperature of 37 the grass is now starting to turn green and my crocuses are in bloom.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For anyone who wants what I have found to be very good up to the minute information on the world wide number of the Coronavirus with out the BS here is a link. Note this in for numbers only no write ups or such and as I said it is updated and no BS

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news

 

Really random list there. It will be interesting to see how Britain fares. Last I heard they had decided on "herd exposure" vs quarantine measures. Unless that has changed, you would expect their numbers of infected to be exponentially higher than places like MI where social isolation is in effect. Also, are we to presume that every country no matter how small/backwards has the proper "test kits" to verify cases? If we're having trouble getting enough, how are 3rd world nations doing it?

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really random list there. It will be interesting to see how Britain fares. Last I heard they had decided on "herd exposure" vs quarantine measures. Unless that has changed, you would expect their numbers of infected to be exponentially higher than places like MI where social isolation is in effect. Also, are we to presume that every country no matter how small/backwards has the proper "test kits" to verify cases? If we're having trouble getting enough, how are 3rd world nations doing it?

Jaster220 look over all the information there. This is the most up to date information that I have found. As the the the "test" kits that is a question that most of us can not answer. I can say that my youngest son and his wife both work at Spectrum Health here in Grand Rapids and as for getting a test in west Michigan well good luck. as for how the UK is handling this issue well here is some information from the BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52014472

 

As for the information on the site that I posted that is the most up to date information you will find on the numbers if you fine one that is more up to date you should post it. The top counties to look keep track of are the US., Italy, Spain, and of course the UK. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lotta rain coming for the weekend..........

 

Some possible severe weather as well as my area will be in the warm sector b4 that CF comes crashing in late

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope you score some much needed warmth and higher DP's!  I love the smell of Spring warmth that has a touch of humidity and esp after freshly cut grass.

 

While we are obviously in the beginning stage of spring, with slowly-greening grass and daffodils popping, what I really look forward to each year is the first day of both warmth AND humidity.  I want to see 70º with a low 60s dew.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings disco: snowstorm?

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

345 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020

 

...A Windy Storm Fri Night into Sat with Some Potential for Heavy

Wet Snow in Some Areas...

 

The big wx maker of this fcst package will affect the CWA Fri night-

Sat. Deep sub 990 low pres will eject out of CO... crossing KS

into Ern NEB Sat. Sat will be very windy. Gusts up to 55 mph could

occur. We need to watch this system. With the deformation zone

moving acrs the CWA during the nighttime and morning hrs...it is

very possible it could become just cold enough to snow. There

could be a swath of hvy wet snow for parts of the CWA...plastered

onto objects by the strong winds. And it could accumulate...espcly

on non-pavement/non-concrete areas. If the snow does not

materialize...then it`s just a windy/rainy event. Can`t rule out

some thunder on the Srn fringe of the deformation zone close to

the dry slot.

 

The fcst currently does not depict much snow. That is due to the

temps in the fcst. Watch the fcst. If temps trend downward as we

get closer...more snow will be in the fcst.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we'll fall short of the 58F showing in my grid. Still, it's downright pleasant out there so I decided to pull my garden hose out and hand wash my new car on the driveway. A little exercise and sunshine was a nice change after day 4 of homebound conditions. My work-from-home may turn into a lay-off scenario as we got word today of two major project cancellations. Initial step was just to shorten the work week to 4 days but my position is likely one of the more fragile in the mix. Gonna "party like it's 2009" all over again..yay!  :(

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At Tom

 

When I was outside enjoying the nice evening I got to thinking what a perfect time for some solo hiking. Are you able to do much of that?

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At Tom

 

When I was outside enjoying the nice evening I got to thinking what a perfect time for some solo hiking. Are you able to do much of that?

Trails here are packed due to schools and businesses closed for the time being. I’ve gone hiking many times already. It’s usually a busy time of year but this year it’s even busier. It’s nice to see so many people outside and getting some exercise.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took a look at the JMA weeklies this morning and they don't appear to be showing any "real" sustained spring time warmth for the eastern Sub as we open up April.  The Plains states have a much better chance of seeing warmth poke into the region as the west coast ridge fires up during the early part of April.  Nearly all the global/climate models showing an expansive ridge to blossom and lock in for a better part of next month.

 

 

Week 2...

 

Y202003.D2512_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...

 

Y202003.D2512_gl2.png

2.png

3.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saturday's temperature around here is a bit of a mystery.  The locals are keeping us in the 50s to low 60s.  Meanwhile, last night's Euro has upper 70s surging into central Iowa.  I'm guessing that is way overdone, but if the surface low tracks nw of me then 50s seems low.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Locals have upper 50s and thunderstorms for Saturday. That would be awesome

 

Thunderstorms, yes, but I would hope we can do better than upper 50s in late March.

 

Update:  The GFS has low 70s and the Euro has upper 70s into part of Iowa.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for the update, Tom.

 

It’s been really wet in KC the last 15 days, everything is green and growing.

 

You thinking KC could see a drier stretch starting in early April, plus warmer?

I'm thinking from your area and points west stand a better chance of warmer weather as we get into early April.  Does it get dryer?  Ehhh, hard to say at the moment but I do feel there will be some dryer periods mixed in between active ones.  We haven't see an amplified North American pattern in quite some time.  In fact, I think since Oct/Nov of last year.  The west is going to "cook" while the east cools down...#nationdivided

 

We may be approaching 90F mid next week as the ridge fires up.  Should get pretty toasty around the deserts.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saturday's temperature around here is a bit of a mystery. The locals are keeping us in the 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, last night's Euro has upper 70s surging into central Iowa. I'm guessing that is way overdone, but if the surface low tracks nw of me then 50s seems low.

NWS point forecast was (and still is) saying upper 60°s for here on Saturday for a few days already.

 

Updated SPC forecast has me on the northern fringe of a marginal risk of severe tomorrow and over much of eastern Iowa on Saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking from your area and points west stand a better chance of warmer weather as we get into early April.  Does it get dryer?  Ehhh, hard to say at the moment but I do feel there will be some dryer periods mixed in between active ones.  We haven't see an amplified North American pattern in quite some time.  In fact, I think since Oct/Nov of last year.  The west is going to "cook" while the east cools down...#nationdivided

 

We may be approaching 90F mid next week as the ridge fires up.  Should get pretty toasty around the deserts.

 

Those govt entities with the real "crystal ball" say it will be a hot spring and summer in the US. I'm not talking about NOAA just to be clear. If we go by lunar calendar, springs just begun and goes deep into June. Plenty of time for this cool start to turn-around.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The op GFS has gone pretty cold for the first half of April.  Yuck.  I sure hope not.  I hate cold in April.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The potential severe wx outbreak this Saturday reminds of a set up we saw a few years back in May I believe it was that sparked numerous large and very strong tornado's across N IL, esp near Rockford.  This weekend looks to be rocking for the first time this season.

 

 

1.jpg

2.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

430 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280830-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

430 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight near the Ohio

border. Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night

with large hail being the primary severe threat. Storms will move

from southwest to northeast at about 50 mph. Heavy rain and minor

flooding may also occur with any storms.

 

Strong southwest winds with gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible

during the day Sunday.

 

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is now cloudy and 52 here.

While this is not weather related it is some news from here in Michigan

Michigan has reported 801 new cases today for a total of 3657 confirmed there have been a reported 32 new deaths for a total of 92. At this time most of the cases are in SE Michigan with the city of Detroit have a reported 1075 and Wayne county have a total of 1810. The 4 county area that is metro Detroit now has a total of 3188. Outside of the metro Detroit area Genesee (Flint) has 91 Kent(Grand Rapids) 45 with Ottawa at 21 for a total in the Grand Rapids metro area of 66. Remember these are confirmed cases and not the number that may be sick.
Stay safe

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little lightning and thunder here recently.

 

It’s looking more likely that I’m going to get dry-slotted. Models are showing less rain. My guess is severe wx will fire up just to my east Saturday afternoon as I’ve seen that occur many times over the years. We’ll see.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flash flooding reported in the Quad Cities just now. A nice cell also just fired to my sw. Bad time for storms as just crawled into bed.

 

A new nice cell is about to pass south of me.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man nicest cell in a long time about to move in. Davenport got up to 3.77" of rain!

 

Edit: problem is it may scrape by to my nw. Not sure why this cell is heading more northeast then the ones out east. It's headed for Bud again like the last time. Arrg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...