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March 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Overall, a wet and warm start to Spring across the eastern Heartland and throughout the OHV...quite the battle zone shaping up over the Plains/Upper MW causing concern for late season snows up north.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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At the end of the day, Nature will always have the final say...I learned a lot of valuable lessons as I'm sure many professional mets did this season.  While you only came on here touting how bad the

Up here in Canada we woke up to a temperature just below the freezing point and 4" of super fluffy snow sprinkled straight down.

New York State homes are coping with inches to feet of ice after storm. Now, aren't you glad you aren't chiseling out of your home? _________________   https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-

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I'm ready for thunderstorms!

 

This x 100.

 

Even the 0.50-0.75" of general rain Monday will be a nice start.  We haven't had a rain event heavier than 0.20" since late December.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Overall, a wet and warm start to Spring across the eastern Heartland and throughout the OHV...quite the battle zone shaping up over the Plains/Upper MW causing concern for late season snows up north.

Don’t know the exact climo stats, but just speaking from experience I think it would be more unusual for parts of MN/WI not to have snow in Mach into April. Either way, hoping we don’t have to deal with it around these parts and can get a fast transition to spring and summmer. We are owed after the last several years

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Don’t know the exact climo stats, but just speaking from experience I think it would be more unusual for parts of MN/WI not to have snow in Mach into April. Either way, hoping we don’t have to deal with it around these parts and can get a fast transition to spring and summmer. We are owed after the last several years

March is already off to a much warmer start compared to the last couple March opens. You guys just need it to continue but I suspect a lot of back and forth due to storm enduced warmth followed by CF’s.

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Don’t know the exact climo stats, but just speaking from experience I think it would be more unusual for parts of MN/WI not to have snow in Mach into April. Either way, hoping we don’t have to deal with it around these parts and can get a fast transition to spring and summmer. We are owed after the last several years

March is typically our second snowiest month here in MSP, on average. Anyone up this way that thinks winter is completely done is in denial. Hell, we got 30” two April’s ago.

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March is typically our second snowiest month here in MSP, on average. Anyone up this way that thinks winter is completely done is in denial. Hell, we got 30” two April’s ago.

No winter isn't over, the EC has a snowy look, esp for Nebraska and Iowa.  Lezak is expecting 1 or 2 more accumulating snows in KC, we shall see.

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The volatility of March can produce some wild weather and temp swings, none moreso, than those who live in the Great Plains. Spring "Shoulder" season is fully underway and parts of our Sub are going to get "teased" by some Spring time warmth this weekend.  Does it last?  Quite an active pattern is setting up from the desert SW into the central CONUS this week into the following weekend.  Is there a late season winter storm on the horizon??? I haven't had much time to analyze the pattern and left my notebook back home, but I will say, there is growing model consensus that the EPO is to tank later this week which will allow the pattern to amplify and seed some late season arctic air into the Upper MW/Plains states where the potential for Spring Snows lies ahead.

 

Last nights 00z EPS turned significantly colder for the Plains and the GEFS/GEPS are not far behind on that idea.  

 

00z GEFS...

 

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The volatility of March can produce some wild weather and temp swings, none moreso, than those who live in the Great Plains. Spring "Shoulder" season is fully underway and parts of our Sub are going to get "teased" by some Spring time warmth this weekend.  Does it last?  Quite an active pattern is setting up from the desert SW into the central CONUS this week into the following weekend.  Is there a late season winter storm on the horizon??? I haven't had much time to analyze the pattern and left my notebook back home, but I will say, there is growing model consensus that the EPO is to tank later this week which will allow the pattern to amplify and seed some late season arctic air into the Upper MW/Plains states where the potential for Spring Snows lies ahead.

 

Last nights 00z EPS turned significantly colder for the Plains and the GEFS/GEPS are not far behind on that idea.  

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

The 16th-18th needs to be watched closely, if there is going to be a big dog in my area that would be the most likely time.

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The 16th-18th needs to be watched closely, if there is going to be a big dog in my area that would be the most likely time.

Should be a bumpy ride mid & late month for your area and a lot of the central CONUS. The weather out here in AZ will turn cooler later next week and the following. I’ve been enjoying the amazing weather over the past few days. Yesterday, we topped out at 84F and today it will be in the low 80’s before we “cool” down around 70F with rain chances Tue- Thu. I’m expecting a BN pattern for the reminder of this month over here. Average temps will be in the upper 70’s later next week and approaching 80F by months end so BN temps won’t be too terrible. We need the rain so that will be a bonus.

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It was a rather cold night last night. While the official low looks to be 18° here at my house the low as just 15°.  I think it is now safe to say the lowest low for Grand Rapids for the winter of 2019/20 will be a rather mild +4° That is in a 3 way tie for the 5th warmest minimum for a winter season. Also Grand Rapids is still at just 48.5" of snow for the season here is a list of some past lowest snow fall seasons at Grand Rapids 35.9" in 1982/83. 47.6" in 1986/87. 48.5" in 1979/80. In more recent times the winter of 2011/12 just 51.2" fell. So the next few weeks will tell just where this winter well set in for the lowest snow fall totals at Grand Rapids.

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This graphic pretty much sums up the difference compared to this years open vs March '19....my goodness, that was a frigid open last year and I think we did not have much snow OTG iirc.

 

Edit: Yup, we had bare ground back then...

 

nsm_depth_2019030405_Northern_Great_Lake

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The 16th-18th needs to be watched closely, if there is going to be a big dog in my area that would be the most likely time.

Fantasyland GFS drops 33" on Fargo in that one storm

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The GFS, Canadian, and Euro are all showing something similar.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another gorgeous spring day. Sunny and near 70. Light breeze.

 

Just perfection.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Welcome to Daylight Savings!  #SpringForward...while ya'll lost 1 hour of sleep, the state of AZ is one of the 2 states (including Hawaii) that does not participate in Daylight Savings Time. It's starting to look more likely that the idea of "Wasted Cold" will take hold starting later this week and the following week.  Where was this monster -EPO during the Winter???  Glad I made the trip out here to spend time with the fam and enjoy the warmth.

 

 

Where is that dude @IowaWx???  March 2012 redux = Fail...IMO

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Welcome to Daylight Savings! #SpringForward...while ya'll lost 1 hour of sleep, the state of AZ is one of the 2 states (including Hawaii) that does not participate in Daylight Savings Time. It's starting to look more likely that the idea of "Wasted Cold" will take hold starting later this week and the following week. Where was this monster -EPO during the Winter??? Glad I made the trip out here to spend time with the fam and enjoy the warmth.

 

 

Where is that dude @IowaWx??? March 2012 redux = Fail...IMO

I never called for it to be like March 2012. I am enjoying these ABOVE AVERAGE temps to start March, however. Actually has an early-spring feel to it which is nice since we haven’t had that the past few years.

 

I’ll take the high-road here and not mention the constant doubling down of your “epically” awful winter forecast. I’ll just say that I would be embarrassed to show my face around these parts had I been that bad.

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I never called for it to be like March 2012. I am enjoying these ABOVE AVERAGE temps to start March, however. Actually has an early-spring feel to it which is nice since we haven’t had that the past few years.

 

I’ll take the high-road here and not mention the constant doubling down of your “epically” awful winter forecast. I’ll just say that I would be embarrassed to show my face around these parts had I been that bad.

At the end of the day, Nature will always have the final say...I learned a lot of valuable lessons as I'm sure many professional mets did this season.  While you only came on here touting how bad the predictions were, not once did you make any forecasts.  It shows weakness when all you do is call someone out.  I hold my head up high every single day and appreciate hearing all the constructive criticism along the bumpy road this past cold season.  It's all good in my book...as they say, "live and learn"... 

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I never called for it to be like March 2012. I am enjoying these ABOVE AVERAGE temps to start March, however. Actually has an early-spring feel to it which is nice since we haven’t had that the past few years.

 

I’ll take the high-road here and not mention the constant doubling down of your “epically” awful winter forecast. I’ll just say that I would be embarrassed to show my face around these parts had I been that bad.

Maybe you should spend your time around more professional meteorologists instead of staying on a forum for people who want to learn and discuss the weather? Do you think this is some sort of secret place on the internet that's better than the major weather outlets? It's for people who want to learn and discuss their own theories and observations. Tom's always optimistic about winter, but even if his forecasts aren't right and can bust, you can learn a lot from his posts. Once I started to treat this place as a resource to learn about weather I grew on it far more.

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Today will be the warmest day of the year so far.  Enjoy it.  The GFS is cold and kinda snowy after mid month.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Maybe you should spend your time around more professional meteorologists instead of staying on a forum for people who want to learn and discuss the weather? Do you think this is some sort of secret place on the internet that's better than the major weather outlets? It's for people who want to learn and discuss their own theories and observations. Tom's always optimistic about winter, but even if his forecasts aren't right and can bust, you can learn a lot from his posts. Once I started to treat this place as a resource to learn about weather I grew on it far more.

It’s a forum for cold and snow fanatics to get together to post ways they may get the worst, most-destructive, weather possible. There’s no learning going on here; nobody is looking to get things right. Just looking for the 1 percent chance of “epic” or the “b word”.

 

I stumbled upon this place years ago looking for info as to when the lake in my backyard was going to thaw and I could get my boat ready. Instead, I found what appeared to be what I thought were well-argued reasons why it would stay cold. It took a bit, but I realized that well-argued meant cherry-picked models to confirm cold biases.

 

I am the voice of the voiceless. I am the guy who stops by looking for better info than what the news or weather app on the phone is offering. To all of those people: I will continue to fight for you as the winter-warrior-wishcasters try to present their dream scenarios as facts.

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It’s a forum for cold and snow fanatics to get together to post ways they may get the worst, most-destructive, weather possible. There’s no learning going on here; nobody is looking to get things right. Just looking for the 1 percent chance of “epic” or the “b word”.

 

I stumbled upon this place years ago looking for info as to when the lake in my backyard was going to thaw and I could get my boat ready. Instead, I found what appeared to be what I thought were well-argued reasons why it would stay cold. It took a bit, but I realized that well-argued meant cherry-picked models to confirm cold biases.

 

I am the voice of the voiceless. I am the guy who stops by looking for better info than what the news or weather app on the phone is offering. To all of those people: I will continue to fight for you as the winter-warrior-wishcasters try to present their dream scenarios as facts.

If your a "voice for the voiceless", then start speaking for that crowd and start stating your opinions or your long range predictions.  Until then, your "voice" or lack thereof, is meaningless....just my 2 cents...

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I'm really looking forward to tomorrow.  Models have increased rainfall totals around here, now up to 0.75-1.00", with a bit more in a few lucky spots.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It is a nice day outside today, but the winds are fairly gusty. I am looking forward to getting a good soaking rain tommrow. 

 

I see the GFS has another snowstorm next weekend. It has gotten to the point where I really don't want to see anymore snow this winter. March snowfall doesn't last very long and often has a hard time accumulating because of the stronger sun angle, so hopefully next weekend is just rain around here. 

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Careful Tom, we have been fooled by the MJO/EPO forecasts since Nov. Like you said, where were you this winter??? Maybe we have some fun the second half of the month.

 

I appreciate your energy and love your forecasting, yes, it was a bumpy winter with regards to some forecasts, but, you did accurately predict many weather changes dating back to October. I love reading your posts and will continue to do so. At least you own a bad forecast, Lezak has had a tough forecasting winter also, but he won’t own it, he’ll try to spin it to make it look accurate. He has a real problem with that.

 

Look forward to your future posts with this possible wintry change coming up. Who will score late in the game??

 

Clinton...fire up the snow maps, we haven’t had a chance to do so the last 3 weeks or so.

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The op Euro has backed off the mid-month cold again.  It continues to gradually sag the possible snow system farther south.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not excited for rain very often but this is one of those times. There hasn't been appreciable precipitation since the mid January slop show and I'm tired of the red flag warnings. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Several locations in southern Iowa are hitting 70º this afternoon.  We have a couple degrees to go here in CR.   B)

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It is now at 65 here at my house. Officially  62 at GRR Today will be at least the 5th (tie) warmest March 8 in Grand Rapids history.   (64 in 2012 is the 4th warmest) 78 in 2000 is the warmest, 71 in 2016 is the 2nd warmest and 70 in 1987 is the warmest.
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73.4 so far today. Looking forward to the rain tonight. Would be nice to get a 1/2” or more

Loving this weather! And I am also looking forward to seeing some decent rainfall later tonight and tomorrow. 

 

If we get some appreciable moisture, things should really start greening up around here in the next week or two. 

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Sorry, but I hope this rain can under-perform. Next weekend they are going to have a big raffle, log jam, and other stuff going on at my hill. But it's all going to be canceled if they can't salvage the snow after the rain. After next weekend I'm ready for rain and the lake to thaw out. I snowboarded so much this winter, I feel pretty content.

 

Today was quite nice though, Snowpants and a t-shirt for the afternoon. I feel like last spring I didn't get a very nice end, warm days like this are really bittersweet.But it's way better than it being cold and then the hill suddenly being closed.

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If I had a complaint, it would be the wind. Gusts to 40-45 mph both days kind of makes it unpleasant even with the warmer temperatures. In fact once the sun went behind the houses we put on sweatshirts bc of the wind even when it was still in the 60s.

 

Loving this weather! And I am also looking forward to seeing some decent rainfall later tonight and tomorrow.

 

If we get some appreciable moisture, things should really start greening up around here in the next week or two.

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Maxed out at 59.7*F here today. Went for a walk, as did the entire population it seems. A bit breezy, but it's worth it.

 

The trees look like they're trying to start up. Some even have buds. Might we have leaves by April? 55.9*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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We hit 70º this afternoon, beating pretty much every model.  The Euro had us maxing at 63º.

 

The rain is only 6-8 hours away.  The dewpoint is still only 28º, so it will moisten up in a hurry late tonight.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It hit 71° here today. Very nice except for the wind which was plenty strong. I also noticed that 4 years ago today it hit 72° with a low only in the 50°s. Was a little strange that the dew point dropped again in the late afternoon. Relative humidity was the lowest its been since last June.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Noticed a few lightning strikes just occurred in se. Ne. and e. Co. as I was checking out a map just now. It’s nothing much, but thought it’s neat that it happened just as I was looking for the first time.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Heard thunder quite a few times after 2:30am for the first time in over 3 months. Also was lucky enough to get a few little downpours with max wind gusts around 42 mph likely due to evaporational cooling or whatever you call it. Top gust yesterday was only 38 mph. I was up to 0.20” when I last checked after 3:00 am. with quite a bit more since then.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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I was awaken by one little rumble.  Unfortunately, the heavy rain veered northeast through the Iowa City/North Liberty area and bypassed Cedar Rapids.  It should just be light rain the rest of the day.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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