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March 2020 Observations and Discussion


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At the end of the day, Nature will always have the final say...I learned a lot of valuable lessons as I'm sure many professional mets did this season.  While you only came on here touting how bad the

Up here in Canada we woke up to a temperature just below the freezing point and 4" of super fluffy snow sprinkled straight down.

New York State homes are coping with inches to feet of ice after storm. Now, aren't you glad you aren't chiseling out of your home? _________________   https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-

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70 degrees the last 2 days.  Right now at 8 AM, it is 32 degrees with a heavy sleet falling with winds gusting to 30 MPH.  Life on the Central Plains.  

 

I also see that the 0Z Ukie and Euro want to paint a snow storm across Nebraska this Saturday.  We'll see.

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I am up to around 0.80" of so far. That heavy rain early on gave me a head start. Didn't really have that much since 5am.

 

I missed out on the heavy rain band, so I'm at only 0.32".  The rain has been very light since I woke up.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What a disappointment. So far only have .07" of rain. 34 degrees

 

It has been a rough couple of months if you crave exciting weather... especially if you live in Nebraska.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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At least we are getting some rain. We have been so dry. Looks like a return to normal temps for March for the next two weeks. Well a couple dips but also some moisture. I will say yesterday.was very enjoyable. First time this year I got to play some paintball which was nice.

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Forecasted amounts of rain just keep going up. They are claiming over an inch now. We're in trouble for snowboarding.

 

Warm weather also sent 15 people through the ice on my lake last night. No one died but it was quite the ordeal, they had the air boat out and a lot of rescue people here.

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This graphic pretty much sums up the difference compared to this years open vs March '19....my goodness, that was a frigid open last year and I think we did not have much snow OTG iirc.

 

Edit: Yup, we had bare ground back then...

 

nsm_depth_2019030405_Northern_Great_Lake

 

Wow at that map. We sure were the sad zone of snowlessness eh? 

 

Yesterday at Marshall only managed a 61F high, but as others have said, we haven't gotten this early warmth the past two years so it was nice for a change. Certainly beats the 40F and rain stuff that's on deck going forward. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Interesting majority of the models showing some snow. Lol might even the best we have seen this year.

Only need 1.9” to claim that title in Lincoln lmao

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Euro, UKIE, CMC and GFS all want to bring a snow event to the Central Plains this weekend.  I'd guess a wet snow scenario with not much accumulation unless it occurred at night.  Won't turn down any moisture chances.  Looks fairly active into next week as well.

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Picked up over 1" of rain so far now. Looking at the radar I might end up with around 1.50". Another band of an inch or so just nw of the CR area.

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We've now made it up to .29" of rain with the rain this afternoon. Now down to 32.4 degrees so might get some snowflakes mixed in at the end. Right now seeing some reports of ice pellets.

Should green up pretty decent with highs in the 50s to near 60 the next 3 days.

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It’s a forum for cold and snow fanatics to get together to post ways they may get the worst, most-destructive, weather possible. There’s no learning going on here; nobody is looking to get things right. Just looking for the 1 percent chance of “epic” or the “b word”.

 

I stumbled upon this place years ago looking for info as to when the lake in my backyard was going to thaw and I could get my boat ready. Instead, I found what appeared to be what I thought were well-argued reasons why it would stay cold. It took a bit, but I realized that well-argued meant cherry-picked models to confirm cold biases.

 

I am the voice of the voiceless. I am the guy who stops by looking for better info than what the news or weather app on the phone is offering. To all of those people: I will continue to fight for you as the winter-warrior-wishcasters try to present their dream scenarios as facts.

BE the change you want to see or quit being a coward and move on.

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Sounds like another wasted, wet, nasty weekend coming up for me. Oh yay. Lol.

 

Got about an 80 percent chance of moderate flooding risks here by mid-May. This sounds like the start of it.

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Amazingly here in Iowa we’ve had our nicest weather over the weekends in pretty much all of February, and so far in Mar!

 

Ended up with with 1.45” here today. It really wasn’t all that dry yet and now it’s a little squishy already. My brother finished planting cover crop just before it rained after midnight (most of it was planted on Saturday, but he couldn’t finish when he couldn’t make it up the hills) and still did some spinning going up the steepest hills, so it was just dry enough. Probably the earliest he planted anything in March? Cover crops will be worked back into the soil later this spring for added fertility and organic matter.

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Amazingly here in Iowa we’ve had our nicest weather over the weekends in pretty much all of February, and so far in Mar!

 

Ended up with with 1.45” here today. It really wasn’t all that dry yet and now it’s a little squishy already. My brother finished planting cover crop just before it rained after midnight (most of it was planted on Saturday, but he couldn’t finish when he couldn’t make it up the hills) and still did some spinning going up the steepest hills, so it was just dry enough. Probably the earliest he planted anything in March? Cover crops will be worked back into the soil later this spring for added fertility and organic matter.

I have the itch to plant too. Ground was not only workable but passed "the clump" test already. I put in snap peas, arugula and radish seeds today. This is likely my second earliest first planting (first was on February 28th, though I struggle to remember the year). Got the seeds in the ground just in time for our evening rain.

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I have the itch to plant too. Ground was not only workable but passed "the clump" test already. I put in snap peas, arugula and radish seeds today. This is likely my second earliest first planting (first was on February 28th, though I struggle to remember the year). Got the seeds in the ground just in time for our evening rain.

My brother also planted peas with the cover crop mix, but we're not planting any other crops or garden just yet! To early for this area as it could get really cold yet. You are kind of protected by the lakes.

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My rain total is 0.81".

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Only 0.35" total here. Wasn't watching super closely, but it seemed like we were supposed to get 3/4-1"

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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The "Nebraska Magnet" hasn't been used much this past winter, but as we flipped the calendar into met Spring, this may end up being the new "theme"....preview of what's to come out in the Great Plains???

 

00z GEFS next 10 days...

1.png

2.png

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The "Nebraska Magnet" hasn't been used much this past winter, but as we flipped the calendar into met Spring, this may end up being the new "theme"....preview of what's to come out in the Great Plains???

 

00z GEFS next 10 days...

You're correct there Tom.  The models still painting a snowy weekend around here.  I just saw one of my weather apps just showed

3-5" Friday night into Saturday morning.  That would surprise many I think.  Of course this Thursday-Saturday is the Boys State Basketball Tournament in Lincoln.  That seems to always stir up weather issues.  We go every year, regardless if our school is playing in the tournament or not, and we have either driven down or back in some rough conditions over the years.

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My brother also planted peas with the cover crop mix, but we're not planting any other crops or garden just yet! To early for this area as it could get really cold yet. You are kind of protected by the lakes.

You might be surprised by the cold hardiness of some veggies. Snap peas would need consecutive days in the teens to knock them out, for example. That being said, getting the soil consistently above 40 to germinate could be an issue.

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What rainstorm?  LOL @

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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What rainstorm?  LOL @

I live very close to a lake, not lakefront, but close. The last few years have been extremely wet and a lot of people are having serious water control issues. Last year was too wet for the farms around here to run their machinery to plant until it was late. We would have had a huge corn problem here if we didn't get that warm spurt where everything grew like crazy.

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I'm actually hoping we don't get a big winter storm here in March. I'm enjoying an almost bare ground.  Still have a bit of snow in my yard, but we're getting there. Also, before winter arrived a lot of places in Minnesota were already at flood stage.  As things melt, especially up north, it's only going to add to the waterlogged land, reservoirs, rivers, lakes, etc. The swamps surrounding our places are at the highest levels we have ever seen them, and they aren't even close to being done with melting. I love snow, I love rain, I love moisture.  It's good for a lot of things. But just like everything, in moderation :P  We need to dry out a bit around here. On the other side of things, I'm hoping this summer doesn't swing polar opposite from the last couple years and we barely get anything in terms of moisture.  I just have a weird gut feeling it's going to be a hot, dry one...

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I'm actually hoping we don't get a big winter storm here in March. I'm enjoying an almost bare ground. Still have a bit of snow in my yard, but we're getting there. Also, before winter arrived a lot of places in Minnesota were already at flood stage. As things melt, especially up north, it's only going to add to the waterlogged land, reservoirs, rivers, lakes, etc. The swamps surrounding our places are at the highest levels we have ever seen them, and they aren't even close to being done with melting. I love snow, I love rain, I love moisture. It's good for a lot of things. But just like everything, in moderation :P We need to dry out a bit around here. On the other side of things, I'm hoping this summer doesn't swing polar opposite from the last couple years and we barely get anything in terms of moisture. I just have a weird gut feeling it's going to be a hot, dry one...

 

 

I could not agree more. I just want thunderstorms and 70s for temps. I love waking up to subtle rumbles of thunder and rain on my window. The snow this year has been so tedious im just over all of winter and am beyond ready for warmth!

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The UK is becoming more bullish this weekend as well.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If the models verify, it will be a very wet snow.  All the models are now showing this snow from Friday night through Saturday.  Most are almost identical which seems to rarely happen.  If it does occur, it is March so it would melt very quickly.

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Odd day temp-wise. Had 53F at 3 am, 36F at 1 pm. Back up to 48F with full sun. Spring-time roller coaster mode on full display. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The UK is becoming more bullish this weekend as well.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Oh man if my ski hill is closed and we're getting snow to the north and snow to the south I am going to be one grumpy bastard this weekend.

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From DVN:  I guess winter isn't over

 

Friday night and Saturday: There will be a 1051 mb high setting up
in central Canada with a stalled frontal boundary from OK to TN. A
storm system should develop along this strong baroclinic zone. Both
the GFS and ECMWF spread snow across much of the dvn cwa with
several inches of accumulation possible. Where the heaviest band of
snow sets up is questionable at this time as the GFS suggests in our
southern counties, while the ECMWF indicates along I-80 give or take
50 miles. This may impact highs on Saturday which may be colder than
forecast.

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The 00z UK took a big step back with the weekend system.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Someone has dusted off the NE snow magnet...Looking more and more likely that NE members will see a formidable late season snowfall.  Most of the snow falls overnight Friday into Saturday so that will aid in higher snow totals.  Another potential cutter later next week???  The pattern setting up across the central CONUS looks more wintry than spring-like over the next week or more.  Gosh, you just knew mother nature would balance things out in the end when the nation overall had such a warm winter and it had to come during the Spring season.

 

As we inch closer towards meteorological Spring, what the heck is the Polar Vortex trying to do??? Uggh, is this going to be a March-April 2018 redux???  Not good if your seeking a warm start to Spring if the PV decides to set up shop in North America.  The last 10 runs off the GEFS showing a late season SSW and dislodging the entire Vortex into North America.  

 

 

Not only is the Blocking and the Polar Vortex showing signs of an ugly pattern in the extended, but the MJO appears to be amplifying into the "cold" phases with each run off the Euro.  Where the heck were you in the Winter????  

 

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

1.png

2.png

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh240_trend.gif

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Someone has dusted off the NE snow magnet...Looking more and more likely that NE members will see a formidable late season snowfall.  Most of the snow falls overnight Friday into Saturday so that will aid in higher snow totals.  Another potential cutter later next week???  The pattern setting up across the central CONUS looks more wintry than spring-like over the next week or more.  Gosh, you just knew mother nature would balance things out in the end when the nation overall had such a warm winter and it had to come during the Spring season.

 

As we inch closer towards meteorological Spring, what the heck is the Polar Vortex trying to do??? Uggh, is this going to be a March-April 2018 redux???  Not good if your seeking a warm start to Spring if the PV decides to set up shop in North America.  The last 10 runs off the GEFS showing a late season SSW and dislodging the entire Vortex into North America.  

 

 

Not only is the Blocking and the Polar Vortex showing signs of an ugly pattern in the extended, but the MJO appears to be amplifying into the "cold" phases with each run off the Euro.  Where the heck were you in the Winter????  

 

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Looks very wintry in this part of the country for awhile.  Thanks for the maps Tom.  I wonder if in the next day or two we see Winter Storm Watches hoisted?  Been a long time since we've seen one of those issued if it occurs.  Probably the post Christmas storm if I remember correctly.  

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