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March 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Looks like the hailer to the sw. is still producing hail and just now is severe warned again as it moves closer. Lightning is increasing once again. Only had outflow winds from the first storms.

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At the end of the day, Nature will always have the final say...I learned a lot of valuable lessons as I'm sure many professional mets did this season.  While you only came on here touting how bad the

Up here in Canada we woke up to a temperature just below the freezing point and 4" of super fluffy snow sprinkled straight down.

New York State homes are coping with inches to feet of ice after storm. Now, aren't you glad you aren't chiseling out of your home? _________________   https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-

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While it's a chilly morning here (44F) in Fountain Hills, AZ...I'm keeping an eye on back home as the season's first big severe wx threat targets the Midwest. It was a matter of time we saw one of these signature LRC storms to track out of the Rockies and produce some severe wx. Hopefully these storms don't cause a lot of damage.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

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Nice soaking rain coming today, and the threat of snow has been shifting east over the last few model runs. A Winter Weather Advisory now slices through the MSP metro for tonight into tomorrow morning. Of course the evolution of this storm up this way is highly dependent on what transpires downstream. If things get out of control with convection it’s going to rob us of moisture. Interesting weather day on tap nonetheless. Stay safe peeps.

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There was plenty of action overnight, but everything went around me again.  I picked up only 0.20" of rain.  As with our last storm event a week or so ago, the Iowa City/North Liberty area was the hot spot where heavy rain and a bit of hail fell.  The Quad Cities area was crushed by training storms.  There are many reports of 3.0-4.5" of rain in that area.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I was in the midst of the main t. storm activity, but was right in between two heavy swaths with around 1.50" just nw. and se. Don't like getting brushed repeatedly, but was nice seeing all the lightning. I still ended up with 0.61". I'm over 4" for this month so I'm expecting monthly amounts are approaching 6" just to my nw. as they got a lot more from the previous system as well.

 

Currently there is dense fog north of the warm front here.

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Strong thunder woke me and driving rain hitting the windows. We officially have "green-up"and the T-showers will really make things green going into April. Looks like nearly 1.5" here and not so much as a Flood Watch. Back yard is a pond and ofc that means water in my basement. With a risk of stronger T-storms overnight I'm not too thrilled. Hopefully I get missed more than not. Don't need severe or power outages at this time either. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

425 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-290830-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

425 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight

with large hail being the primary severe threat. There is also a low

chance of a tornado, particularly south of I-94. Storms will move

from southwest to northeast at about 50 mph. Heavy rain and minor

flooding may also occur with any storms.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 

Strong southwest winds with gusts from 35 to 45 mph are likely

during the day Sunday.

 

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The last of this batch of thunder showers just moved through with an additional three or four tenths. Now we wait and see what happens this afternoon! The sun is trying to break through.

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Caught the southern end of a hailstorm this morning. Yard is flooded.

I saw that cell on the radar loop and it hit my back yard back him also. Gotta call my neighbor to see if all is ok.

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Seems to be a big bust again for Cedar Rapids. Just had some brief downpours. No signs of any severe weather around here.

 

Yes, CR did not do very well overnight and this morning, but the severe stuff won't fire til later this afternoon.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That new cell in sw. Iowa probably is part of what could develop into that next band of storms later judging by the visible satellite of a band of clouds developing there. Still cloudy here, but it should clear soon.

 

FCADC5-AF-1-CD7-48-D0-81-C6-0-F5-EF0-D73

 

EC5-B1-EA6-F25-A-4725-8-B40-8-C686-C518-

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That new cell in sw. Iowa probably is part of what could develop into that next band of storms later judging by the visible satellite of a band of clouds developing there. Still cloudy here, but it should clear soon.

 

FCADC5-AF-1-CD7-48-D0-81-C6-0-F5-EF0-D73

 

EC5-B1-EA6-F25-A-4725-8-B40-8-C686-C518-

I am hoping for some sunshine to break through the clouds this afternoon, so that it can stir up some energy in the atmosphere for big storms. So far, zilch. Under a thick layer of clouds. Pretty soggy out there from what I am seeing. Next week looks splendid w plentiful sunshine and temps near or slightly BN for mby.

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Looks busty here. If I get anything severe, it'll be hail.

 

2020032812_NAMNST_015_41.66,-83.73_sever

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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A PDS tornado watch just went up for the expected area (IA/MO/IL).

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The front is only a few counties to the sw. and storms are having trouble developing further south. Things will need to pop quickly for any storms here. Windy from the sse. attm.

 

Edit: that’s a potent dry line wedging into southern Iowa.

31435603-2-D55-492-B-905-B-53-B6-B3452-E

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The temp is finally rising steadily, now at 63º here and 70º in Iowa City.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Call me crazy, but to me this seems like a bust. That or it’s just starting much later — the HRRR has very little development. Definitely potential with all the shear in place but I don’t know. Lack of instability might be the hindering factor of all of this.

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It looks like Cedar Rapids isn't going to get any strong to severe storms today. The sun is out and temps have warmed up, but the radar suggests everything will be to the west of here.

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It looks like Cedar Rapids isn't going to get any strong to severe storms today. The sun is out and temps have warmed up, but the radar suggests everything will be to the west of here.

 

The warm section in Iowa and northern Missouri has been silent so far.  Clearly, it has not panned out as expected.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The warm section in Iowa and northern Missouri has been silent so far. Clearly, it has not panned out as expected.

Yeah a big bust. There was plenty of time for development here. I was thinking the dry line might be moving through to soon.

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Cue the sad trombone.  That's it for everyone through Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.   :(

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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 A lot of lightning last night, but that's about it. It was a lightning show. No flooding and no wind or hail damage at all. Now, its windy w sunshine. Temp is a balmy 59F.

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2.31" per the airport unit for this weekend's system. Based on the small pond IMBY yesterday, I would not be surprised if I had a bit more here. Glad last night didn't materialize as was expected.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My rain total for the entire event (Thursday through Saturday) is 0.39".

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Getting some wind blown rain here at this time with a temperature of 43.

Here is today's updated Michigan virus totals. State wide confirmed cases 5468 that is a increase of 836. Deaths 132 a increase of 21. Some city/county totals Detroit city 1542. Detroit metro 4494. Genesee (Flint) county 127  Washtenaw (Ann Arbor) County. 231. Kent county 72 and Ottawa county 25.

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While the 90's have disappeared (I don't mind) in the extended forecast, #realspring will be arriving here this week in the Valley of the Sun....

 

 

 

10dayforecast.jpg

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While the 90's have disappeared (I don't mind) in the extended forecast, #realspring will be arriving here this week in the Valley of the Sun....

 

 

 

10dayforecast.jpg

Feels like spring here as well. Finally have a beautiful sunshiny day!
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The 1.3” of rain on Saturday put a massive dent in the lake ice. About 80% of the lake is open water as of this morning. I’d expect the ice to be totally gone tomorrow. That would be exactly one month earlier than last year. First kayakers paddling by as I type this.

 

Seeing clear water, wildlife returning, and people exploring nature breathes life into my soul during these trying times.

527EF736-999C-49C6-A13E-B006C4F45E7E.jpeg

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