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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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I'm going to predict a -2F temperature departure for the month of March for the Puget Sound region.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I predict one round of snow 1 to 3 inches locally around the puget sound, 5 inches in Vancouver area. Then at the end of the month, 80s

That’s kind of how last year was...well not quite that much snow near the sound. Still we had snow in the first week and in the latter half of the month temps got into the upper 70s and lower 80s in spots. It looks chilly the first week of March this year but I doubt there will be much excitement below 500-1000’. Maybe if we get lucky and get precip at the right time.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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No doubt March is starting off cold.  This morning it was freezing at around 4am and by 6am we had some wet snow falling.  The models continue to play with fire in the week two period.  Some real potential for a period of much below normal temps at some point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 here this morning first spring freeze and freeze #23 this cold season.

 

I've had 47 days with freezing low temps.  Quite a difference!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No doubt March is starting off cold.  This morning it was freezing at around 4am and by 6am we had some wet snow falling.  The models continue to play with fire in the week two period.  Some real potential for a period of much below normal temps at some point.

looks chilly definitely for early March. Doesn’t look super great for snow down below 500’ though unfortunately.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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looks chilly definitely for early March. Doesn’t look super great for snow down below 500’ though unfortunately.

 

The models are putting a strong positive height anom near the sweet spot for part of week two.  Don't rule anything out yet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The models are putting a strong positive height anom near the sweet spot for part of week two. Don't rule anything out yet.

I was just talking about this weekend’s upcoming cold trough. Way too early to make an assumption about part of week two. We’ve all seen long range promise fizzle too many times this winter to get excited about anything past 5 days unfortunately.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Portland has not had more than 3” of snow in March since 1951.

 

EUG had a weird event back in late March 2012 that dropped several inches IIRC.

 

Got down to 32F berfore midnight overnight so 2 more freezes for EUG.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Posted this in the wrong thread earlier.

 

The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

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Definitely noticing the Sun angles intensifying over the last few weeks. It’s to the point where the ground feels warm to the touch even on chilly days like yesterday.

 

Hopefully a super volcano erupts tomorrow and there’s no summer this year. It’s just a pointless season.

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Definitely noticing the Sun angles intensifying over the last few weeks. It’s to the point where the ground feels warm to the touch even on chilly days like yesterday.

Hopefully a super volcano erupts tomorrow and there’s no summer this year. It’s just a pointless season.

Hope you get record snowfall in March and April.

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About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

eVWF1xD.jpg

DUKlwDP.jpg

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About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

eVWF1xD.jpg

DUKlwDP.jpg

 

The tropical Pacific seems to be releasing a lot of heat this season.  That is almost certainly the reason global temps have failed to react to the solar min yet.  Once the process is complete I think global temps will plummet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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All I can say is, I hope that zonal, -PNA-lite pattern was worth it for the Andrews and other zonal flow lovers.

 

Because that unfortunate midwinter pattern/forcing transition could have some serious consequences in the 4CH/death ridge department this summer.

 

Certainly not a given, but it could go to hell in a heartbeat if the wrong button is pushed.

 

We're used to it in the south valley.  30 or more days with 90F+ temps.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

eVWF1xD.jpg

DUKlwDP.jpg

It tells us the earth is warming?
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Hope you get record snowfall in March and April.

Thanks man, but I’m mostly rooting against it now.

 

We were due for a dud winter and now it’s off our backs.

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I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late.  It has happened before.  I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum.  In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.


 


I have no idea why the green background happened.


 


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

 

I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late. It has happened before. I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum. In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.

 

I have no idea why the green background happened.

Jim is feeling green today!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Nope. At least not directly. Because even if you set the global SST anomaly to zero, this is still the largest+most intense warm pool observed in the satellite era.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

 

I'm hoping this means a crash is coming.  Nature kind of likes to work in that way.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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