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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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The EPS continues it's favorable trend toward a well placed GOA / Aluetian block during week 2.  Could be something brewing there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm hoping this means a crash is coming. Nature kind of likes to work in that way.

That is true, but the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool is a massive heat engine and, with infrequent exceptions, it tends to cycle it’s preferred low frequency state over multiple centuries. Decadal/sub-centennial gyrations are triggered via completely different mechanisms and the changes to heat flow/budgeting associated with them are possibly inverted from those associated with the longer term/lower frequency variations, which is interesting.

 

The warm pool was monstrous + northern shifted during the MWP and throughout the early/middle Holocene during that warm climate optimum. And contracted/displaced to the southwest during the LIA and much of the late Holocene neoglacial. Those transitions didn’t occur overnight and even the flip from the mid-Holocene climate optimum to the late Holocene neoglacial period took at least a century or two.

 

Though, at the moment it’s not meridionally anomalous in its extent. It’s just longitudinally broad and very intense. Intriguing to say the least.

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The GFS and EPS control indicate a cutoff low over the GOA downstream of the blocking in the 10 to 15 day period is going to give the models fits on the details for a potential significant cold snap.  Looks like we have a shot though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That is true, but the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool is a massive heat engine and, with infrequent exceptions, it tends to cycle it’s preferred low frequency state over multiple centuries.

 

The warm pool was monstrous + northern shifted during the MWP and throughout the early/middle Holocene during that warm climate optimum. And contracted/displaced to the southwest during the LIA and much of the late Holocene neoglacial.

 

Though, at the moment it’s not meridionally anomalous in its extent. It’s just longitudinally broad and very intense. Intriguing to say the least.

 

That doesn't mean it won't have periods where it lets up though.  No way that thing sits there nonstop for years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That doesn't mean it won't have periods where it lets up though. No way that thing sits there nonstop for years.

Yes, I edited my post to clarify that. There’s higher frequency variability superimposed on the lower frequency variability. But it’s of a different nature, occurs through different trigger mechanisms, and has vastly different implications for heat flow/budgeting with respect to time.

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And they will blame it all on climate change if it does.

 

Well the climate does change...over long periods of time. The alarmists are unfortunately way too focused on. Actual atmospheric scientists will give a far more scholarly explanation.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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According to NWS Medford I had the 5th driest February on record. I would also have liked a comparison to other warm Februaries, this one was a tad warmer than the couple we had in the drought years last decade.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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45F and mostly cloudy but dry.  Nice, seasonable day.  :)

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Gusts around 30mph, a little breezy.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Not a fan of the coming pattern. Could see a very warm March here...at least February was good.

 

Since November has been a stretch of above average months. Due for a cool March.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This spring can’t be kold since I predicted it.

 

98.2

 

Probably a cool first half and then we get a couple warm ups come May.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Not a fan of the coming pattern. Could see a very warm March here...at least February was good.

Same. This pattern is oozing with bad vibes for the warm season. Fingers crossed that the Sun does it’s best Betelgeuse impression and abruptly decreases in luminosity, canceling summer and bringing back winter.

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One significant change on the 12z EPS vs earlier runs is it shows a considerably lower WPO than previous runs as the month unfolds.  Sometimes a WPO drop is good for amplifying the pattern over the NC and NE Pacific.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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According to NWS Medford I had the 5th driest February on record. I would also have liked a comparison to other warm Februaries, this one was a tad warmer than the couple we had in the drought years last decade.

 

A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Same. This pattern is oozing with bad vibes for the warm season. Fingers crossed that the Sun does it’s best Betelgeuse impression and abruptly decreases in luminosity, canceling summer and bringing back winter.

 

I would love to have control of the dimmer switch!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like it’s the time of year for Phil’s constant ominous this summer is gonna melt ur faces off in the PNW posts. Although sadly it’s not like he’s been wrong about that lately.

I call ‘em as I see ‘em. Not making a summer call until the final warming/seasonal transition is underway, but there are more doors to a very large 4CH vs last year.

 

And FWIW, last year I predicted a near average summer in the PNW, with more moisture and a smaller 4CH, and it largely verified, except for September (which I thought would be warmer). But seasonal transitions can be extremely difficult, so I’ll give myself a pass there.

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Looks like it’s the time of year for Phil’s constant ominous this summer is gonna melt ur faces off in the PNW posts. Although sadly it’s not like he’s been wrong about that lately.

 

Seems like Phil has actually been one of the "cooler" voices about several recent summers. He's been too cool in just about every summer forecast contest.

 

Last summer definitely was different, though. Considerably less heatwaves or even really warm stretches than the summers in the 2013-2018 period. Just look at the 95+, 90+, and 85+ numbers most places.

 

Also, on the bright side, almost every summer after 2014 has featured an abrupt end and turned fall-ish by mid to late September.

A forum for the end of the world.

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A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

 

You didn't even have to go very far south to hit the dryness. OLM was 36% below normal precip in Feb.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Yeah Feb was almost 4" below normal for precip here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I call ‘em as I see ‘em. Not making a summer call until the final warming/seasonal transition is underway, but there are more doors to a very large 4CH vs last year.

 

And FWIW, last year I predicted a near average summer in the PNW, with more moisture and a smaller 4CH, and it largely verified, except for September (which I thought would be warmer). But seasonal transitions can be extremely difficult, so I’ll give myself a pass there.

 

I think the correlation between a large/strong 4CH high and hot PNW summers is somewhat overplayed on here. It also depends on what part of summer you are talking about...the 4CH is much more of a factor in the first half.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Seems like Phil has actually been one of the "cooler" voices about several recent summers. He's been too cool in just about every summer forecast contest.

 

Last summer definitely was different, though. Considerably less heatwaves or even really warm stretches than the summers in the 2013-2018 period. Just look at the 95+, 90+, and 85+ numbers most places.

 

Also, on the bright side, almost every summer after 2014 has featured an abrupt end and turned fall-ish by mid to late September.

That’s mostly because I lack understanding of some of the local boundary layer dynamics and UHI at some stations. It’s why you guys throw in the pity DCA station in the summer forecast contest. I’m at a disadvantage already and am still learning how things work at the surface out there.

 

But I did mostly fine with large scale pattern projection, with the exception of 2017, when the Hadley/Walker/WP system flipped on me, well ahead of my expectations. I remember that bust like it was yesterday and have been careful to avoid making it again.

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A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

 

It could switch back, who knows. Nov-Dec-Jan featured quite a few storms in this section of the NW.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I think the correlation between a large/strong 4CH high and hot PNW summers is somewhat overplayed on here. It also depends on what part of summer you are talking about...the 4CH is much more of a factor in the first half.

Sure it depends, but there’s no consistent seasonal bias over time based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.

 

Under the systemic tendency of +PMM/+TNH or +NAM, a large 4CH directly affects the PNW. And under the inverse (-PMM/reverse TNH or -NAM) the 4CH tends to center farther SE and affect the Intermountain West and Plains more directly.

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A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

 

I made a post about NorCal precip earlier. Many 0.00" stations including some very wet foothill areas like Nevada City. San Francisco's 0.00" was the driest since 1864. Sacramento picked up a trace on the 29th but still broke the all time record of 0.04" in 1899. Redding finished 0.00" (previous record was 0.14" in 1988). Record smashing dryness down there.

 

You didn't even have to go very far south to hit the dryness. OLM was 36% below normal precip in Feb.

 

PDX was 42% of normal and HIO was just 34% of normal. The domination of NW flow really allowed the coast range to sponge most of the precip up before it reached the valley.

 

febpercentofaverageprecio.png

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All in all winter was a success...Especially the second half. If I lived from King Co south I would be disagreeing with myself however. About 16” of total snowfall, a big windstorm, and massive amounts of rainfall.

 

Anyway up to a whopping 42 degrees. Was just put pulling a few weeds, then got cold and tired.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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45 and mostly cloudy here. Looks like the models are still showing a cooler airmass moving in Saturday...we will see how cold it actually is on the models in a couple days.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Up to 48F down here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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A few of the gusts in the last 10 minutes sound like 40-45. Tonight is garbage night, so I'm gonna wait until dark before pulling out my bins.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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wa_swepctnormal_update.png

 

I know snowpack is good up in the WA mountains. NW flow means the WA mountains get lots of precip.

 

Mt Hood and Willamette basins are doing pretty okay for the most part. Southern OR basins are starting to run dry with Klamath basin under 70%. Trinity/Shasta/north Sierra basin is 51% and the central-southern Sierras are just above 40%.

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Nws. Disc. About cold trough next week. Cliff mass also posted a blog about it...still a couple days before it’s in the believable range on the models though. Would be marginal at best nothing to be too excited about still near the sound below 500’.

567836AC-6686-4D9F-94D5-6A52C4B06CA5.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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