March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Really good article on what we can learn from Coronavirus in China: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

 

Does not support some of the notions that there are thousands of asymptomatic carriers out there:

 

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.

[Deweydog]

Haha...

 

Guangdong.

[MossMan]

Really good article on what we can learn from Coronavirus in China: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

 

Does not support some of the notions that there are thousands of asymptomatic carriers out there:

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.

Costco is apparently sold out of toilet paper...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Costco is apparently sold out of toilet paper...

Haha nuts! I sent one of my employees up to fred meyer to get some tp and he comes back and says there's none to be had.

[Front Ranger]

Costco is apparently sold out of toilet paper...

 

The problem is they sell everything in bulk. Stuff sells out quicker.

 

Dumb place to go when you're in a panic.

[GHweatherChris]

I wonder if the mood moderator will be online tonight....

[umadbro]

Came to read a weather forum and a Corona virus thread broke out. Unfortunately the only cure is Fred.

[MossMan]

Came to read a weather forum and a Corona virus thread broke out. Unfortunately the only cure is Fred.

UMADBRO?

[Front Ranger]

Came to read a weather forum and a Corona virus thread broke out. Unfortunately the only cure is Fred.

 

The first and hopefully last time that a non-weather related topic surfaces here.

 

People are talking about it everywhere. Don't be an a**.

[Jesse]

Came to read a weather forum and a Corona virus thread broke out. Unfortunately the only cure is Fred.

What weather related thing were you planning to post about? No one is stopping you...

[TT-SEA]

Haha nuts! I sent one of my employees up to fred meyer to get some tp and he comes back and says there's none to be had.

 

 

I saw stories on facebook of Safeway in NB being out of toilet paper as well... was just there and all the shelves were fully stocked liked normal including TP.     I did notice anything different anywhere in the store.

[Front Ranger]

I saw stories on facebook of Safeway in NB being out of toilet paper as well... was just there and all the shelves were fully stocked liked normal including TP.     I did notice anything different anywhere in the store.

 

FAKE NEWS

 

Just like dry precip maps.

[Christensen87]

Ummmm 00z GFS says holy snow in the mid-long range. Wow! Could we see a March miracle happen?

[GHweatherChris]

Still no drizzle here.

[GHweatherChris]

Ummmm 00z GFS says holy snow in the mid-long range. Wow! Could we see a March miracle happen?

Hour 270 and beyond is just straight up long range, no mid about it.

[TT-SEA]

FAKE NEWS

 

Just like dry precip maps.

 

 

I saw pics people posted... situation seems to have been remedied.  

[TT-SEA]

Hour 270 and beyond is just straight up long range, no mid about it.

 

 

Pretty much everything the GFS has promised in the long range since November has happened... many arctic blasts and huge snowstorms.   

 

Obviously people are going to talk about it and that is fine.   I will pay attention when the EPS shows something.   The only time the EPS consistently promised cold this winter is the one time it actually happened for the northern part of the region.

[Christensen87]

Hour 270 and beyond is just straight up long range, no mid about it.

Oh, sorry.

[MossMan]

Problem solved...

https://youtu.be/I3rORjNX5sE

[GHweatherChris]

Oh, sorry.

However, I would love to see it happen!!

[TT-SEA]

Problem solved...

https://youtu.be/I3rORjNX5sE

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Oh, sorry.

 

 

Its subjective of course... but usually 10-15 day is considered long range.     I think Andrew considers within 700 hours to still be short term though.    

[MossMan]

Major dumpage currently!

[MossMan]

Up to .31” on the day.

[Jesse]

That is one nice looking GFS run.

[Omegaraptor]

Cool down after the warm up after the cool down after the warm up.

[snow_wizard]

Freaking awesome ECMWF run.  Arctic outbreak signature at day 10!

[snow_wizard]

That is one nice looking GFS run.

 

I almost can't believe we have the ECMWF and GFS so gung ho with the trough late next week.  That one looks potentially historic for so late in the season.  It sure makes me think back to the way this cold season began with all of those crazy unseasonably cold troughs.

[Phil]

Well we certainly did see blockiness in late September and October. Only problem is that the PV screwed everything up afterward.

 

If we can stay ENSO-neutral as Phil says we'll be in a great position next winter. I've heard this solar minimum will last a decent amount of time.

ENSO neutral/very weak niña under mature -QBO/solar min conditions would have epic potential.

 

Of course, nothing goes right these days, so either a mod/strong niña or niño will probably swoop in to screw it up.

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive numbers showing up for next Friday on the ECMWF.  Sub zero temps in the inerior of BC and afternoon temps only near 40 for the Puget Sound region with an Arctic front undoubtedly moving south.  Truly something if this verifies.

 

In the shorter term we have good agreement for lowland snow this weekend.

[snow_wizard]

ENSO neutral/very weak niña under mature -QBO/solar min conditions would have epic potential.

 

Of course, nothing goes right these days, so either a mod/strong niña or niño will probably swoop in to screw it up.

 

Exciting times we are in right now.  Let's hope the details go our way!

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvment on the EPS 500mb anoms on this run.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty surprised people aren't talking about the coming cold a little bit more.  We have all models showing some snow this weekend.  I imagine if we have a few more runs like the 0z ECMWF this place will really pick up..

[ShawniganLake]

I'm pretty surprised people aren't talking about the coming cold a little bit more. We have all models showing some snow this weekend. I imagine if we have a few more runs like the 0z ECMWF this place will really pick up..

I like snow any time of the year but I think collectively the number of people excited about a slushy inch in March is much smaller than if the models looked promising a couple months ago. Also. Pretty much everyone has been burned by the models several times this winter.

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

Windy tonight. Probably gusting around 40mph.

[snow_wizard]

I like snow any time of the year but I think collectively the number of people excited about a slushy inch in March is much smaller than if the models looked promising a couple months ago. Also. Pretty much everyone has been burned by the models several times this winter.

 

True...but this looks like a potentially extraordinary situation coming up.  We can get real snow in March.  1955 has been a consistent analog the last few days.  No reason to think this isn't possible given the exceptional troughs we had early in the season.  Some seasons are all about the book ends.

[HighlandExperience]

Really impressive numbers showing up for next Friday on the ECMWF. Sub zero temps in the inerior of BC and afternoon temps only near 40 for the Puget Sound region with an Arctic front undoubtedly moving south. Truly something if this verifies.

 

In the shorter term we have good agreement for lowland snow this weekend.

Sounds nice but next Friday sounds like an eternity from now.

[ShawniganLake]

True...but this looks like a potentially extraordinary situation coming up. We can get real snow in March. 1955 has been a consistent analog the last few days. No reason to think this isn't possible given the exceptional troughs we had early in the season. Some seasons are all about the book ends.

I’m not sure how the troughs 6 months ago have any bearing on what’s coming. Some seasons are book ended and some aren’t. I would love to see some extraordinary cold verify but you’d have to extrapolate beyond day 10 on the euro to get anything that resembles 1955.

[MikeInEverett]

I saw stories on facebook of Safeway in NB being out of toilet paper as well... was just there and all the shelves were fully stocked liked normal including TP.     I did notice anything different anywhere in the store.

Up here my store completely ran out of tp and water for a short time this weekend.. Work has been hell the last four days. So much panic over something most of us won't even need to see a doctor for. It's just sad and unfortunate that an assisted living facility is getting hit the hardest.