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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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About an inch of snow outside this morning! Roads have been melted off for over an hour. I think it started 6am.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Your eyes say thank you.

 

95qDqed.jpg

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Every run just comes out drier and drier.

 

So maybe I won't miss any huge snowstorms here while I'm gone 11th > 18th?  :lol:

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Holy crap the models are tantalizing.  The players are there and SOOOOO close to really delivering.  I still like our chances with the crazy high heights most runs are showing for much of AK during week 2.  Realistically speaking we are still in line for a bunch of solidly cold nights coming up and some well below high temps mixed in.  As it stands now some interesting possibilities are in play in the temperature department.

 

1. Lowest March average low in decades

2. Coldest post March 10 low temps in decades could be possible

 

If the details actually go our way an historic outcome for the middle third of the month is still possible.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At least this Euro run looks a little wetter for Northern California. And also the PSCZ prone Cascade foothills east of Stanwood, which is notable considering they have the same annual average precip as Portland Oregon.

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Quite remarkably the ECMWF has 850s below normal over the NW quarter of WA for each of the next 10 days with the pattern set to remain cold at day 10.  So much potential for greatness here.  We shall see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At least this Euro run looks a little wetter for Northern California. And also the PSCZ prone Cascade foothills east of Stanwood, which is notable considering they have the same annual average precip as Portland Oregon.

Good Lord.

 

Randy's area does have roughly the same annual rainfall as Portland.

 

He does not live in the foothills like me. He could walk to I-5. It takes him 3 minutes to get to work. Have you ever been in that area?

 

You just can't accept that fact that nature has focused the wetter than normal weather over the same areas once again this past winter.   It happened.    It's not Randy's fault.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At least this Euro run looks a little wetter for Northern California. And also the PSCZ prone Cascade foothills east of Stanwood, which is notable considering they have the same annual average precip as Portland Oregon.

 

Up here I'm pulling for as many cold / clear / frosty nights as we can get.  We have been plenty wet up here.  The Pacific basically gets shut down for the foreseeable future so I wouldn't expect a wet outcome.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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42/38 day today with a midnight high temp. Currently 39. It was also our coldest day since 2/4 when we had some snow.

 

The high temp yesterday was a pleasant surprise for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Quite remarkably the ECMWF has 850s below normal over the NW quarter of WA for each of the next 10 days with the pattern set to remain cold at day 10.  So much potential for greatness here.  We shall see.

Models have really been backing off... and looking much more tame. And continue to back off as things get closer. Not going to be warm... but probably quite pleasant overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point we are only fine details away from having a very cold outcome for the entire 6 to 12 day period so I'm kind of on pins and needles right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Western WA is one of the driest areas compared to normal in the entire country per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days and a good part of CA is quite wet... a really nice change of pace.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-qpf-anom-10day

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point we are only fine details away from having a very cold outcome for the entire 6 to 12 day period so I'm kind of on pins and needles right now.

Man, I don’t know what you are on but let me have some. This has been such a boring winter for everyone in the lowlands south of Seattle, and the models are gradually watering down the potential for anything interesting mid month. Really no way to sugar coat things right now.

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Man, I don’t know what you are on but let me have some. This has been such a boring winter for everyone in the lowlands south of Seattle, and the models are gradually watering down the potential for anything interesting mid month. Really no way to sugar coat things right now.

 

It's been hella boring here too.  :(

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By day 12... the 12Z EPS shows the ridging nudging into the PNW.     This would be a really nice pattern for us... sunny and increasingly warm days with cool, clear nights.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-45976

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Every run just comes out drier and drier.

Have to see what happens if/when the super +AO/+NAM terminates after the final warming (a dynamic FW could still shake up the MJO periodicity and low pass AAM recycle). But right now you have to acknowledge it’s a scary looking regime..very wide ITCZ/Hadley system with poleward subtropical anticyclones and a massive warm pool that’s highly constructive to said state at this point in the seasonal cycle.

 

The missed attempt at the NAM/EPO flip in Jan (TPV getting stuck over Beaufort/Yukon) may or may not have been spatiotemporal in nature, but it paved the way for a complete takeover of the super NAM/associated RWB-ERW feedback cycle enabled by the low level +QBO wrlies and muted ENSO state, which allowed the warm pool to grow and consolidate faster than it would have otherwise.

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Have to see what happens if/when the super +AO/+NAM terminates after the final warming. But right now you have to acknowledge it’s a scary looking regime..very wide ITCZ/Hadley system with poleward subtropical anticyclones and a massive warm pool that’s highly constructive to said state at this point in the seasonal cycle.

 

The missed attempt at the NAM/EPO flip in Jan (TPV getting stuck over Beaufort/Yukon) may or may not have been spatiotemporal in nature, but it paved the way for a complete takeover of the super NAM/associated RWB-ERW feedback cycle enabled by the low level +QBO wrlies and muted ENSO state, which allowed the warm pool to grow and consolidate faster than it would have otherwise.

I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west.

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At least you got some snow. Nothing down here.

yeah I’m glad to have seen a bit of snow atleast but it’s been a fairly uneventful winter compared to the last 3 winters.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Holy crap the models are tantalizing. The players are there and SOOOOO close to really delivering. I still like our chances with the crazy high heights most runs are showing for much of AK during week 2. Realistically speaking we are still in line for a bunch of solidly cold nights coming up and some well below high temps mixed in. As it stands now some interesting possibilities are in play in the temperature department.

 

1. Lowest March average low in decades

2. Coldest post March 10 low temps in decades could be possible

 

If the details actually go our way an historic outcome for the middle third of the month is still possible.

I could see a big cold air release in April or maybe the very end of the month in the ideal progression, but right now it seems to me the system state is still dominated by that polar vortex with rossby wave dispersion waning upstream. Sending any serious cold south might be difficult for several weeks yet.

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Almost all of it is melted now. lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Western WA is one of the driest areas compared to normal in the entire country per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days and a good part of CA is quite wet... a really nice change of pace.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-qpf-anom-10day

The presence of the STJ (still have the +ENSO lean) is a saving grace for folks in the SW. If this were a 2012 like Hadley/Walker system..I don’t even want to imagine. Not that we’d actually have an analogous AAM integral in that case, but still. Yikes.

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Got snow/ice pellets/rain mix currently. 38 degrees.

it’s 39 here with moderate rain maybe we will see some flakes mixed in today.
  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west.

We’ll know a lot more by mid/late April.

 

I could envision a powerful 4CH that roasts the Intermountain West and Southwest but spares the PNW similar to 1988 (or a muted version of the dust bowl years). An outcome like 1998, 2007 or 2016 is also possible.

 

On the fringes of the spectrum are 2009 (warm) and 2010 (less so).

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Hwy 18 traffic is bad enough... now its closed for 4 days.    Luckily the virus hysteria is making traffic non-existent in the Seattle area.    :lol:

 

hwy18.png

 

SR-18-damage.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The EPS looks a lot colder with the trough late next week than the 0z.  More continental as well.  Interesting all of the operational models and the EPS control show a crazy amplified GOA / AK block at day 10 with the potential for a major unloading of very cold air as that evolves.

 

Looking at the post March 10 period there were very few examples of cold continental air making into the Western Lowlands after that date during the 20th century and so far this century.  Being the cold anomaly lover that I am I think it would be super cool if we can pull that off this time!  Maybe a trip back to the 19th century?

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west.

 

Way too early to speculate on that.  IMO the super positive AO will be made up for.  It is happening in a context when it should not be.  In most cases when that happens there is a huge snap back / making up for in the longer range.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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