Timmy Supercell Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 About an inch of snow outside this morning! Roads have been melted off for over an hour. I think it started 6am. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Last day of early model runs for the next 8 months. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 About an inch of snow outside this morning! Roads have been melted off for over an hour. I think it started 6am.Your eyes say thank you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Your eyes say thank you.I’m sure you could lend him some eye drops otherwise. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Your eyes say thank you. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Every run just comes out drier and drier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Every run just comes out drier and drier. So maybe I won't miss any huge snowstorms here while I'm gone 11th > 18th? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Holy crap the models are tantalizing. The players are there and SOOOOO close to really delivering. I still like our chances with the crazy high heights most runs are showing for much of AK during week 2. Realistically speaking we are still in line for a bunch of solidly cold nights coming up and some well below high temps mixed in. As it stands now some interesting possibilities are in play in the temperature department. 1. Lowest March average low in decades2. Coldest post March 10 low temps in decades could be possible If the details actually go our way an historic outcome for the middle third of the month is still possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 At least this Euro run looks a little wetter for Northern California. And also the PSCZ prone Cascade foothills east of Stanwood, which is notable considering they have the same annual average precip as Portland Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Quite remarkably the ECMWF has 850s below normal over the NW quarter of WA for each of the next 10 days with the pattern set to remain cold at day 10. So much potential for greatness here. We shall see. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 At least this Euro run looks a little wetter for Northern California. And also the PSCZ prone Cascade foothills east of Stanwood, which is notable considering they have the same annual average precip as Portland Oregon.Good Lord. Randy's area does have roughly the same annual rainfall as Portland. He does not live in the foothills like me. He could walk to I-5. It takes him 3 minutes to get to work. Have you ever been in that area? You just can't accept that fact that nature has focused the wetter than normal weather over the same areas once again this past winter. It happened. It's not Randy's fault. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 At least this Euro run looks a little wetter for Northern California. And also the PSCZ prone Cascade foothills east of Stanwood, which is notable considering they have the same annual average precip as Portland Oregon. Up here I'm pulling for as many cold / clear / frosty nights as we can get. We have been plenty wet up here. The Pacific basically gets shut down for the foreseeable future so I wouldn't expect a wet outcome. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 42/38 day today with a midnight high temp. Currently 39. It was also our coldest day since 2/4 when we had some snow. The high temp yesterday was a pleasant surprise for sure. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Quite remarkably the ECMWF has 850s below normal over the NW quarter of WA for each of the next 10 days with the pattern set to remain cold at day 10. So much potential for greatness here. We shall see.Models have really been backing off... and looking much more tame. And continue to back off as things get closer. Not going to be warm... but probably quite pleasant overall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 At this point we are only fine details away from having a very cold outcome for the entire 6 to 12 day period so I'm kind of on pins and needles right now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Western WA is one of the driest areas compared to normal in the entire country per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days and a good part of CA is quite wet... a really nice change of pace. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 At this point we are only fine details away from having a very cold outcome for the entire 6 to 12 day period so I'm kind of on pins and needles right now.Man, I don’t know what you are on but let me have some. This has been such a boring winter for everyone in the lowlands south of Seattle, and the models are gradually watering down the potential for anything interesting mid month. Really no way to sugar coat things right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 12Z EPS looks just like the 12Z ECMWF with that ULL centered over Oregon in one week... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Man, I don’t know what you are on but let me have some. This has been such a boring winter for everyone in the lowlands south of Seattle, and the models are gradually watering down the potential for anything interesting mid month. Really no way to sugar coat things right now. It's been hella boring here too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 It's been hella boring here too. At least you got some snow. Nothing down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 By day 12... the 12Z EPS shows the ridging nudging into the PNW. This would be a really nice pattern for us... sunny and increasingly warm days with cool, clear nights. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Every run just comes out drier and drier.Have to see what happens if/when the super +AO/+NAM terminates after the final warming (a dynamic FW could still shake up the MJO periodicity and low pass AAM recycle). But right now you have to acknowledge it’s a scary looking regime..very wide ITCZ/Hadley system with poleward subtropical anticyclones and a massive warm pool that’s highly constructive to said state at this point in the seasonal cycle. The missed attempt at the NAM/EPO flip in Jan (TPV getting stuck over Beaufort/Yukon) may or may not have been spatiotemporal in nature, but it paved the way for a complete takeover of the super NAM/associated RWB-ERW feedback cycle enabled by the low level +QBO wrlies and muted ENSO state, which allowed the warm pool to grow and consolidate faster than it would have otherwise. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Have to see what happens if/when the super +AO/+NAM terminates after the final warming. But right now you have to acknowledge it’s a scary looking regime..very wide ITCZ/Hadley system with poleward subtropical anticyclones and a massive warm pool that’s highly constructive to said state at this point in the seasonal cycle. The missed attempt at the NAM/EPO flip in Jan (TPV getting stuck over Beaufort/Yukon) may or may not have been spatiotemporal in nature, but it paved the way for a complete takeover of the super NAM/associated RWB-ERW feedback cycle enabled by the low level +QBO wrlies and muted ENSO state, which allowed the warm pool to grow and consolidate faster than it would have otherwise.I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 At least you got some snow. Nothing down here. yeah I’m glad to have seen a bit of snow atleast but it’s been a fairly uneventful winter compared to the last 3 winters. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Just had a brief rain/snow mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Holy crap the models are tantalizing. The players are there and SOOOOO close to really delivering. I still like our chances with the crazy high heights most runs are showing for much of AK during week 2. Realistically speaking we are still in line for a bunch of solidly cold nights coming up and some well below high temps mixed in. As it stands now some interesting possibilities are in play in the temperature department. 1. Lowest March average low in decades2. Coldest post March 10 low temps in decades could be possible If the details actually go our way an historic outcome for the middle third of the month is still possible.I could see a big cold air release in April or maybe the very end of the month in the ideal progression, but right now it seems to me the system state is still dominated by that polar vortex with rossby wave dispersion waning upstream. Sending any serious cold south might be difficult for several weeks yet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Almost all of it is melted now. lol Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Western WA is one of the driest areas compared to normal in the entire country per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days and a good part of CA is quite wet... a really nice change of pace. The presence of the STJ (still have the +ENSO lean) is a saving grace for folks in the SW. If this were a 2012 like Hadley/Walker system..I don’t even want to imagine. Not that we’d actually have an analogous AAM integral in that case, but still. Yikes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Got snow/ice pellets/rain mix currently. 38 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 45 and still dry here for now. We had a fair amount of sun this morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Got snow/ice pellets/rain mix currently. 38 degrees. it’s 39 here with moderate rain maybe we will see some flakes mixed in today. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west.We’ll know a lot more by mid/late April. I could envision a powerful 4CH that roasts the Intermountain West and Southwest but spares the PNW similar to 1988 (or a muted version of the dust bowl years). An outcome like 1998, 2007 or 2016 is also possible. On the fringes of the spectrum are 2009 (warm) and 2010 (less so). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 I think the warmth has pretty much ended since global cooling kicked in 2017+ or - 1 year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 We had snow falling on this date last year as well, but got actual accumulation then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Hwy 18 traffic is bad enough... now its closed for 4 days. Luckily the virus hysteria is making traffic non-existent in the Seattle area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 The EPS looks a lot colder with the trough late next week than the 0z. More continental as well. Interesting all of the operational models and the EPS control show a crazy amplified GOA / AK block at day 10 with the potential for a major unloading of very cold air as that evolves. Looking at the post March 10 period there were very few examples of cold continental air making into the Western Lowlands after that date during the 20th century and so far this century. Being the cold anomaly lover that I am I think it would be super cool if we can pull that off this time! Maybe a trip back to the 19th century? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west. Way too early to speculate on that. IMO the super positive AO will be made up for. It is happening in a context when it should not be. In most cases when that happens there is a huge snap back / making up for in the longer range. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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