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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Major hail!

To be expected... you live high up in the mountains that are within walking distance of I-5 in the Stanwood area. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Te 18z EPS is certainly looking chilly for late next week.  Looking like a legit cold shot.  This run only goes to day 6 so that' why it isn't quite across the border yet.

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-45348600-1583630410_thumb.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Major hail!

 

Is it large or just heavy?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing for sure....the neighborhood is absolutely dead today.  Nobody outside because it's so chilly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing for sure....the neighborhood is absolutely dead today.  Nobody outside because it's so chilly.

It is really nice when other people are not happy. Also good weather for thriving viruses.  

 

Better days ahead.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yet another way this generation is going to hell in a hand basket. Snow days build character. :angry:

There's a lot of other things gone wrong too, but I'm not going to distract everyone's hopes of a white March with the trouble our schools/kids are in.  Much more joyful to talk about bountiful snowfall chances here. 

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The 18z GFS delivers some legit continental cold before day 10. Still liking the chances of challenging the post March 10 benchmark for cold in the Western Lowlands in at least the past 50 years and possibly much further back than that.

I’m not seeing anything in the models that would be nearly as cold as March 2002 here. But maybe that didn’t penetrate very far south.
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Nothing measurable in the precip department here today. So another dry day. It was chilly but perfect for workout outside this time of year. Did some pruning and spread some bark mulch. I think you guys call it bark dust.

I call it bark mulch too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We’ve had 0.09” of rain so far today...briefly had a rain snow mix earlier this afternoon. Pretty chilly still for early March only hit 43 today and 42 yesterday. We’re at 0.73” for March.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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To illlustrate the model trends look at the difference for next weekend now that its within a week away...

 

This was the GFS just a few days ago for next weekend:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_45.png

 

 

And here is that the latest run shows for the same time:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_28.png

Vortex.

 

Look at it all bottled up over the pole like that.

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Its been wet in terms of total rain and days with rain... the opposite of last year.   Time for nature to mix things up a little!  

 

sea-rain.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Its been wet in terms of total rain and days with rain... the opposite of last year.

 

sea-rain.png

Wasted rainfall. Save it for summer.

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Wasted rainfall. Save it for summer.

 

 

In some ways it really is wasted rainfall after a certain point... as most of it just goes right out to the ocean.  

 

That is not the case now as things have dried out a little... although landslide repair continues on some roads around here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still not a record, not unprecedented even though they tied it today.

Never said it was... but still pretty rare.

 

Even out here we fell .02 shy of the Jan/Feb record from 1953. In 1953 there was 43.57 inches and in 2020 there was 43.55.

 

So close... and it has actually happened once before in 122 years of data history. 3rd place was around 38 inches.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Never said it was... but still pretty rare.

 

Even out here we fell .02 shy of the Jan/Feb record from 1953. In 1953 there was 43.57 inches and in 2020 there was 43.55.

 

So close... and it's happened once before in 122 years of data history. 3rd place was around 38 inches.

Meh, just like everything else, we under achieve weatherwise lately, never going big and always going home.

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Nothing measurable in the precip department here today. So another dry day. It was chilly but perfect for workout outside this time of year. Did some pruning and spread some bark mulch. I think you guys call it bark dust.

I wish. .22” on the day and it’s just been wet and raw. Other than this mornings hike with the dogs up to the neighbors 50 acres, I pretty much stayed inside all day.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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00Z GFS is down to showing just a 24-hour period of significantly cold 850mb temps one week from Monday... and its basically dry at that time.   Then it warms up quickly after that.   

 

And it shows next weekend being quite nice with above normal daytime temps both days with sun before the cold air comes in on Monday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well it sounds like some people will see some snow at some point.

 

 

If the 00Z GFS is right... that forecast will change.    

 

Although the 00Z GEM still shows cold air for next weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Never said it was... but still pretty rare.

 

Even out here we fell .02 shy of the Jan/Feb record from 1953. In 1953 there was 43.57 inches and in 2020 there was 43.55.

 

So close... and it has actually happened once before in 122 years of data history. 3rd place was around 38 inches.

Hyperbole aside, I’ll give you kudos for mentioning the possibility of a 1953-like flip being possible this winter after the exceedingly dry late-Oct to mid-Dec period. I didn’t see it coming, as that attempted midwinter pattern transition towards more sustained blocking fell flat on its face.

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Dynamic final warming on the long range GFS.

 

Scandi Ridge/NW-Pacific trough promoting some nice wave driving...would make for some springtime craziness (as in, April).

 

21FhxLK.png

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Hyperbole aside, I’ll give you kudos for mentioning the possibility of a 1953-like flip being possible this winter after the exceedingly dry late-Oct to mid-Dec period. I didn’t see it coming, as that attempted midwinter pattern transition towards more sustained blocking fell flat on its face.

Yeah... such a dry November like we had last year is rare but it happened in 1952. Then the flood gates opened.

 

I think early 1953 was wetter across a larger region... but western WA has been challenging all kinds of records from that year so far.

 

I was not really expecting such a wet winter either... but said it felt like a distinct possibility after a dry fall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... such a dry November like we had last year is rare but it happened in 1952. Then the flood gates opened.

 

I think early 1953 was wetter across a larger region... but western WA has been challenging all kinds of records from that year so far.

Let’s just hope we avoid a 1953 summer. That was a blast furnace out this way. Endless heat, no cold fronts for months on end.

 

I was probably biased against that year all along.

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Wasted rainfall. Save it for summer.

Spring/summer/early fall rainfall = convective activity and thunderstorms.

 

Winter rainfall = drizzle.

 

Yeah winter rainfall is what we need for mountain snow and skiing, but there’s no denying that the former is simply much funner in the lowlands.

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1954 would be much better. Lots of “dry” NW flow and a derecho train to go along with it.

 

1953 was fuucking miserable.

 

 

Probably won't be like either... but even 1954 was better from mid-June through mid-July than last summer in this area.

 

1951 and 1958 were the awesome summers of that decade here.    1950 and 1952 were pretty nice as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Spring/summer/early fall rainfall = convective activity and thunderstorms.

 

Winter rainfall = drizzle.

 

Yeah winter rainfall is what we need for mountain snow and skiing, but there’s no denying that the former is simply much funner in the lowlands.

I hear ya.

 

Though I love rain in any season except winter. Any rain that falls in DJF is precip that could have been snow. The worst kind of rain is 33*F rain. I’d rather have 103*F rain. Well...not really. But at times I ponder it.

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I hear ya.

 

Though I love rain in any season except winter. Any rain that falls in DJF is precip that could have been snow. The worst kind of rain is 33*F rain. I’d rather have 103*F rain. Well...not really. But at times I ponder it.

 

I think you once said you've seen 15ºF rain. That's just awful.

 

Skiing in 33-35ºF rain is the worst. I've done it before. It soaks into your clothes, especially your gloves and it does not come out.

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