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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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I think you once said you've seen 15ºF rain. That's just awful.

 

Skiing in 33-35ºF rain is the worst. I've done it before. It soaks into your clothes, especially your gloves and it does not come out.

There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt.
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There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt.

 

We had 18-degree drizzle here at the start of the 2012 ice storm.   I knew it was going to be bad when it turned to liquid precip when it was still under 20 degrees.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m not seeing anything in the models that would be nearly as cold as March 2002 here. But maybe that didn’t penetrate very far south.

 

2002 never really got impressive with the low temps.  Down here the whole thing was fairly cold, but it never delivered the cold temps this situation might.  Looking at past cold snaps after March 10 it's remarkable how rare it is to get cold / clear with a legit cold continental air mass.  In 1906 Clearbrook dropped to 10 on March 15 so it can certainly happen.

 

At this point I think the blocking being shown on the recent model runs is pretty extraordinary.  Certainly a chance to see some impressive cold before this is over.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt.

There are verified METAR obs confirming it.

 

That happens here sometimes under CAD situations following very cold Arctic air masses, as low level flow remains N/NE below the high to the NE while isentropic upglide aloft drops precip into the wedge.

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Wow!  The Arctic surface high shown over BC on the ECMWF at day 6 is insane.  This is far from business as usual for March.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 34 degrees. Up to .25” on the day.

 

Are you getting snow?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We had 18-degree drizzle here at the start of the 2012 ice storm. I knew it was going to be bad when it turned to liquid precip when it was still under 20 degrees.

Chris isn’t the brightest bulb in the bunch.

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I think you once said you've seen 15ºF rain. That's just awful.

 

Skiing in 33-35ºF rain is the worst. I've done it before. It soaks into your clothes, especially your gloves and it does not come out.

I think our last nasty ice storm with temps in the teens was in 2014 or 2015. We had two of them one of those winters, one in January, and one during the middle of the day in March with temps in the 20s, which was way outside climo.

 

And yeah, those really cold ones can even turn the beltway into a skating rink. I’ve had a few close calls over the years thinking it wasn’t cold enough to overwhelm the chemical treatment + heavy traffic+insolation. ZR is no joke.

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Significant lowland snow being shown on the ECMWF.  It shows it being pretty widespread also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not sure why people aren't more excited about these awesome model runs.  To each their own I guess.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Significant lowland snow being shown on the ECMWF.  It shows it being pretty widespread also.

 

ECMWF often overstates snow amounts with temps in the mid to upper 30s... but we need to start seeing some kind of run-to-run consistency before that even matters.   Long way to go.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not sure why people aren't more excited about these awesome model runs. To each their own I guess.

Polar vortex.

 

It’s mid-March. In January the models were showing something rivaling 1950 or 1969 which was murdered by the aforementioned PV. Certainly killed the optimism for many here. After that, an inch or two of wet slop just isn’t that exciting.

 

GFS and ensembles have little to no cold air with the ECMWF very inconsistent. 12z run was not as cold as this run.

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ECMWF often overstates snow amounts with temps in the mid to upper 30s... but we need to start seeing some kind of run-to-run consistency before that even matters. Long way to go.

Meanwhile it’ll be 75*F here Monday. Tim-tastic.

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EPS is all in for continental cold for the 6 to 12 day period.  Going to be a cold month.  If this is correct it should especially show up on the low temps except early on where we might have a snow threat.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The EPS forecast for the EPO has changed dramtically since I last checked it a couple of day ago.  The 12z showed it dropping to -5 while still showing a PNA of -2.  Time to get intrigued in my estimation!  It's really a miracle the +AO is forecast to survive in this kind of environment.  The 0z EPS control tries to drive the huge PV into the US later in week two so it might be close to the end.

 

 

post-222-0-46880500-1583653862_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not sure why this is so perplexing.

 

The models are showing one of the best looking blocks I've seen so late in the season in like forever so my question stands.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm sure glad I didn't take my eye off the ball this season!  It should be making people wonder that I haven't just left the forum for the season like I usually do by now.  Pretty obvious this isn't business as usual.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A growing number of EPS members depict a dynamic final warming (in the form of a wave-2 vortex split like the 00z GFS operational).

 

Worth watching.

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A growing number of EPS members depict a dynamic final warming (in the form of a wave-2 vortex split like the 00z GFS operational).

 

Worth watching.

 

I think something epic is brewing.  The ECMWF based EPO forecast shows it CRASHING to -7!  This could be yuge.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm sorry to be so manic about this tonight, but it's frustrating to have nobody sharing my excitement about this possible great pattern coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm sorry to be so manic about this tonight, but it's frustrating to have nobody sharing my excitement about this possible great pattern coming up.

You’re good. The simple fact that you have the humility to apologize or admit to anything is what puts you above some of your biggest detractors here.

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I've been in Bozeman since Friday, never experienced a Montana spring before (despite being married to a Montanan for 24 years), but it was in the low 60's and Sunny Friday, upper 50's yesterday with sunny periods, and I woke up this morning to snow.

 

I contemplated taking the snows off before my trip because it looked pretty nice.  I'm glad I didn't!

 

It was pretty crazy driving through the temperature changes from staying at my wife's family place (1hr east of Missoula) to Bozeman.  It was the lower twenties when I left, but quickly went to near 50 after going over a small ridge.  Going over small ridge and I'm in the 60's, then low 30's, then 60's again...huge temperature swings over a 2 hour drive...  It's been a lot of fun to experience....

 

Back to the snow this morning, I think it is supposed to clear off and warm up for next weekend.

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I've been in Bozeman since Friday, never experienced a Montana spring before (despite being married to a Montanan for 24 years), but it was in the low 60's and Sunny Friday, upper 50's yesterday with sunny periods, and I woke up this morning to snow.

 

I contemplated taking the snows off before my trip because it looked pretty nice.  I'm glad I didn't!

 

It was pretty crazy driving through the temperature changes from staying at my wife's family place (1hr east of Missoula) to Bozeman.  It was the lower twenties when I left, but quickly went to near 50 after going over a small ridge.  Going over small ridge and I'm in the 60's, then low 30's, then 60's again...huge temperature swings over a 2 hour drive...  It's been a lot of fun to experience....

 

Back to the snow this morning, I think it is supposed to clear off and warm up for next weekend.

 

Looks like about 6" here south of town already...and still dumping. The melt was seriously on before this one hit. Looks like things stay cool'ish through Tuesday with another couple of inches of snowfall Monday night. 

 

Brief warmup later this week but next weekend is looking pretty cold/snowy as of right now. How long are you in town?

 

IMG_4391.jpg

 

 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Looks like about 6" here south of town already...and still dumping. The melt was seriously on before this one hit. Looks like things stay cool'ish through Tuesday with another couple of inches of snowfall Monday night. 

 

Brief warmup later this week but next weekend is looking pretty cold/snowy as of right now. How long are you in town?

Headed back out around lunch time.  My son bought 1998 Subaru for getting around town, but it needed some work.  I loaded up the car with tools and came out to see him and go over the car.  Luckily we had better weather than today to do the work in.

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