March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

That snow in the Seattle area on the ECMWF comes with temps in the 34-36 degree range.  

 

In fact... the 00Z ECMWF shows the temps staying right in that range all night on Friday into Saturday morning.

Definitely going to be extremely borderline temperatures with this. 

 

Those situations are almost always highly elevation dependent and usually less widespread than models show at this range, regardless of season.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty sure it was the Russians who started all this not bat soup.

From what I know, which isn't much, it started in the Bio-Lab in Wuhan when a horseshoe bat bit one of the workers and the blood was on his arm. I've also heard someone bought all of the lab animals and they were processed for meat in the local markets. Who knows honestly. Oh, and globalization sucks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it might snow here his weekend.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like it might snow here his weekend.

It might. Yes.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty incredible ECMWF run for snow, high temps Friday / Saturday, and low temps Saturday and Sunday nights.  Certainly some record stuff if it plays out that way.

 

In the period of record of record SEA has only had sub 40 highs after March 10th two times and they were both in 2002.  Prior to 1940 it happened more often, but still quite rare.Going to be fun to see what happens.  No doubt being away from Puget Sound and on any kind of hill will really help for snow on Friday and Saturday.

[snow_wizard]

The big picture looks quite amazing as a general blocking theme is shown to continue for the next two weeks on the EPS.  There will probably be at least one more time we will see a deep / cold trough crave out over the NW after the one this weekend.

[Requiem]

I wonder if my hilly location will help this time come the weekend for snow.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if my hilly location will help this time come the weekend for snow.

 

I'm sure it will if the low ends up south of your location.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hilly or hillbilly location? ... I'll have to scroll up and read that again.

 

East wind!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Hilly or hillbilly location? ... I'll have to scroll up and read that again.

 

East wind!!!!

Edit: Hilly.... Okay. It might. I wonder if we really see enough cold air. A mix at times, wet slushy stuff at times down to 500', but 750-1000' sticking snow levels. That's my guess.

[Front Ranger]

I was told to never report temps at SEA because they are comically wrong all the time... in every season (not by you).   

 

Like 0.4 degrees of complete insanity.     Imagine it... a low of 34.8 is really 34.4 without all that UHI heat.    Massive difference.  

 

Yeah, that's not how it works.

[Phil]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bat soup?

 

Wet markets...pure evil.

[Gradient Keeper]

So what's the consensus? Is it going to Snow? I HAVE TO KNOW right now, okay not really.

[Phil]

[snow_wizard]

 

Is the beast about to be slain?  

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF meteograms show SEA with an average low of 34.0 over the next 10 days.  Pretty da-mn respectable for them this time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Snow in April !!!!

 

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 6 minutes

[MikeInEverett]

06z looks really good for PDX.

[TT-SEA]

45 this morning with moderate rain.

[MossMan]

.17” so far on the day. Currently cloudy and 39 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was pretty chilly overall. Also a lot juicier here Friday night/Saturday AM.

[TacomaWaWx]

If we don’t get much/any snow here I might end up taking a drive out to Bremerton to hike green mountain. 1600’ should definitely see some snow if there’s precip through this weekend.

[TacomaWaWx]

Warmer night last night compared to the last week...low of 44. No rain yet but a weak rain band is making its way south.

[Esquimalt]

The NAM is showing about 8 inches here still. Nice to fantasize but not gonna happen

[ShawniganLake]

The NAM is showing about 8 inches here still. Nice to fantasize but not gonna happen

Yea. Odds seem fairly low for anything more than an inch or 2 most places. I’d guess hood canal area has the best chance for something in the 3”+ range.

[Esquimalt]

Yea. Odds seem fairly low for anything more than an inch or 2 most places. I’d guess hood canal area has the best chance for something in the 3”+ range.

Wouldn’t the low stalling offshore like the nam shows be a big snowmaker here?

[ShawniganLake]

Wouldn’t the low stalling offshore like the nam shows be a big snowmaker here?

Likely yes if it was cold enough. It pretty much stalls in the sweet spot for us which is why it shows so much more snow than the other models.

[Jesse]

[Esquimalt]

Likely yes if it was cold enough. It pretty much stalls in the sweet spot for us which is why it shows so much more snow than the other models.

I’m honestly also worried it’s happening midday too. With the March sun angles accumulation will be tough.

[Jesse]

Hit a low of 36 here with early clearing. Currently overcast with a spot of drizzle and 40.

 

Yesterday ended up at 61/29 here. Phat diurnal temp spread.

[ShawniganLake]

I’m honestly also worried it’s happening midday too. With the March sun angles accumulation will be tough.

Friday morning is probably your best chance to see accumulation

[AlTahoe]

I saw a post today that parts of the California Northwest coast that average 120" of rain a year are currently running a 90" rainfall deficit. This years drought is off the charts in some parts of California. 

[TT-SEA]

I saw a post today that parts of the California Northwest coast that average 120" of rain a year are currently running a 90" rainfall deficit. This years drought is off the charts in some parts of California. 

 

 

That is absolutely crazy.   The partial offset has been up in western WA where the moisture train has been focusing.   

 

Its all related... and hopefully it changes soon.  

[ShawniganLake]

Clear skies and 34 here. 0.05” of rain since yesterday morning

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 30F. Nice day!

[Phil]

That is absolutely crazy. The partial offset has been up in western WA where the moisture train has been focusing.

 

Its all related... and hopefully it changes soon.

Bet ur jealous.

[Omegaraptor]

I saw a post today that parts of the California Northwest coast that average 120" of rain a year are currently running a 90" rainfall deficit. This years drought is off the charts in some parts of California. 

 

 

Bet ur jealous.

 

I'm rooting for rain down there because I really don't want a Biscuit Fire / Carr Fire / Camp Fire repeat and I'm sure no one does. I think we all know those forests in southern OR and northern CA become absolute tinderboxes during dry years. 

 

Of course, CA not re-entering drought after just leaving a major drought is also important. CA snowpack is very low right now and even the southern Oregon basins are drying up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang, could be a good snow event for PDX. Looking good for a few inches up here. 

[Jesse]

Dang, could be a good snow event for PDX. Looking good for a few inches up here.

Now is never a good time to be in the bullseye. Things will probably shift before all is said and done.