March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

No significant changes on the 00z GFS. It still thinks the temps will plummet sometime after 11 PM. 

 

 

Actually pretty different from last run. More widespread snow, which will definitely affect the WRF (aka Cliff Mass's one true love).

[FroYoBro]

No significant changes on the 00z GFS. It still thinks the temps will plummet sometime after 11 PM.

 

Lol I believe in the 4-5 inches it gives me. I’ll take pictures!

[MossMan]

Down to 34 degrees.

[seattleweatherguy]

36 here

[Perturbed Member]

Looking at trends on
satellite and radar, a deformation band hinted at in a number of
models, has begin to spread inland across the southern half of the
Coast Range and Willamette Valley. Looking over meso model
solutions, it looks like this deformation is expected to lift north
towards the Columbia late tonight and linger into Saturday morning.
A strengthening offshore flow out of the gorge is indicated in model
soundings to sufficiently cool the northern half of the Willamette
Valley and the lower Columbia Valley to allow snow to become the
dominant precipitation type by late tonight, and remain so through
Saturday morning. With increasing confidence in both the placement
of the deformation zone precipitation and thermal profiles, will go
a little bit out on a limb and add the north Willamette Valley, the
western Gorge, and the Lower Columbia/I-5 corridor in southwest
Washington to the list of winter weather advisories for late tonight
and Saturday morning. In general expect accumulations to be light,
with the best chances for a couple of inches of snow to be at
elevations above 500 ft, as well as the west side of the valley near
the Coast Range where the easterly flow will add a bit more
orographic lift.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at trends on

satellite and radar, a deformation band hinted at in a number of

models, has begin to spread inland across the southern half of the

Coast Range and Willamette Valley. Looking over meso model

solutions, it looks like this deformation is expected to lift north

towards the Columbia late tonight and linger into Saturday morning.

A strengthening offshore flow out of the gorge is indicated in model

soundings to sufficiently cool the northern half of the Willamette

Valley and the lower Columbia Valley to allow snow to become the

dominant precipitation type by late tonight, and remain so through

Saturday morning. With increasing confidence in both the placement

of the deformation zone precipitation and thermal profiles, will go

a little bit out on a limb and add the north Willamette Valley, the

western Gorge, and the Lower Columbia/I-5 corridor in southwest

Washington to the list of winter weather advisories for late tonight

and Saturday morning. In general expect accumulations to be light,

with the best chances for a couple of inches of snow to be at

elevations above 500 ft, as well as the west side of the valley near

the Coast Range where the easterly flow will add a bit more

orographic lift.

Sounds good!

 

IT IS GOING TO SNOW!

[Gradient Keeper]

Lol I believe in the 4-5 inches it gives me. I’ll take pictures!

Heck ya!!!! Vincent Chang told me it was going to snow too!

[Deweydog]

Snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temperature check!

 

I have no idea

[Deweydog]

Temperature check!

 

I have no idea

2 warm 4 sno

[Kayla]

It’s really cold and snowy with a brutal northeast wind here. Lots of cold smoke drifting around.

 

Hope PDX sees something by the morning, you guys deserve it!

[Perturbed Member]

The GEM produces 100% accurate snowfall maps right? It is never wrong as far as I know.

 

[MossMan]

Snow.

No mowing for you.

[ShawniganLake]

36 and breezy I thought I saw a flake when I was driving home from dinner. 16oz rib eye incase anyone was wondering what I ordered.

 

Too bad that radar over southern Vancouver island is basically just picking up Virga. Nothing is really reaching the surface

[BLI snowman]

The GEM produces 100% accurate snowfall maps right? It is never wrong as far as I know.

 

 

 

Would be a nice little February 2019 apology from nature.

[umadbro]

37 with a very light mist. If the models are right, it should start to get interesting in a couple hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

Would be a nice little February 2019 apology from nature.

Heck ya it would!

[umadbro]

Would be better of the east wind had started by now but it's dead calm.

[umadbro]

Nevermind. Wind just started an ENE direction.

[Perturbed Member]

Would be better of the east wind had started by now but it's dead calm.

 

It is 39F with a dp of 36 in The Dalles. Hmm...

[TacomaWaWx]

We will see how far north the precip makes it...been getting flurries on and off so far tonight.

[Front Ranger]

If this pans out...when was the last time that Portland had the biggest event of the winter after 3/10?

[Deweydog]

Sprinkles!!!

 

(They’re not just for winners anymore!)

[BLI snowman]

If this pans out...when was the last time that Portland had the biggest event of the winter after 3/10?

 

2011-12 in some parts of the metro (SE portions) with the 3/21-22 storm.

 

2001-02 as well on 3/17.

[Front Ranger]

2011-12 in some parts of the metro (SE portions) with the 3/21-22 storm.

 

2001-02 as well on 3/17.

 

Yeah, I figured 2012 might be a candidate. Portland did better on 3/17/02 than anything they saw in January that year?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 40 at The Dalles. LOL

[Requiem]

Up to 40 at The Dalles. LOL

 

That's not good.

[MossMan]

33.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 here with some flurries. 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I figured 2012 might be a candidate. Portland did better on 3/17/02 than anything they saw in January that year?

 

Parts of the metro area, sure. Clark County did a bit better with the St. Patrick's Day event. 

[El_Nina]

I have a lot less confidence about this than other events for being so close.

[Perturbed Member]

I have a lot less confidence about this than other events for being so close.

Temps here and in the gorge don't look good. 

 

Though it is now 32F @ 800 ft in the coast range and snowing. 

[Requiem]

Temps here and in the gorge don't look good. 

 

Though it is now 32F @ 800 ft in the coast range and snowing. 

 

Models didn't show easterly flow kicking in till a bit later. Most are also advertising at least a little snow, so I'd be horrified if all of them were just wrong.

[El_Nina]

Temps here and in the gorge don't look good. 

 

Though it is now 32F @ 800 ft in the coast range and snowing.

 

I dont think we need easterly flow. It is 36 here and if it were to start precipitating it would be snow.

We just need the moisture to develop and get some intensity to drag the temps down. Wish we could see the moisture rolling in rather than praying this deformation band actually develops.

[Dave]

Years ago I was going fishing with my buddy for winter steelhead on the Siuslaw, west of Eugene. It was 15 degrees, but we were prepared. We had those chemical hand warmers, a propane heater, and hot coffee in our thermoses. What we weren't prepared for was the river was half frozen. We put the drift boat in and it wouldn't break the ice. We bagged it and went home.

 

On another note, I took a drive a couple of hours ago and it was 38 degrees. Still negative on the splat test, however.

[OysterPrintout]

00z hanging in there 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

East wind is really ripping here in Bellingham. It's the typical Whatcom County scenario: cold enough to snow but way too dry.

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind is really ripping here in Bellingham. It's the typical Whatcom County scenario: cold enough to snow but way too dry.

Nice. HWWarning verifying?

[Requiem]

00z hanging in there 

 

More than hanging in there-- that's quite a bit more than the 18Z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F with some light rain.