March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I prefer American models when they show interesting things. 

[Jesse]

I’m not Jim. I didn’t go quite that far.

 

Holy sh*t! I must have mixed you two up...

[TT-SEA]

Honestly brother, you make a variation of this same exact post every year around this time.

 

Honestly... that is just false.   Last year was quite dry.   Don't troll me with inaccurate statements.   I don't make up stats.

 

It has been this wet to this point in the year one time in this area since 1898... that is just a fact.   That was in 1953.

 

 

 

Update on the Cedar Lake station near my house... ended up just .02 short of the record for Jan/Feb rainfall:

 

1953 - 43.57

 

2020 - 43.55

 

1982 - 38.43

 

1899 - 38.18

 

1961 - 37.72

 

So close! Also interesting that there is a big difference between #3 and #2. Last year there was just 17.32 inches in Jan/Feb combined.

[Deweydog]

Big test coming up for people looking at people looking at the FV3...

[Phil]

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking forward to spending much of next winter in Spokane. I haven't officially signed on for it yet, but looking pretty likely at this point. Probably going to be there a couple years. Will be bummed if I miss too much snow at home. 

[TT-SEA]

Looking forward to spending much of next winter in Spokane. I haven't officially signed on for it yet, but looking pretty likely at this point. Probably going to be there a couple years. Will be bummed if I miss too much snow at home.

A resident of Washington state!

[Deweydog]

Looking forward to spending much of next winter in Spokane. I haven't officially signed on for it yet, but looking pretty likely at this point. Probably going to be there a couple years. Will be bummed if I miss too much snow at home.

Go Zags!

[Jesse]

00Z EURO is way drier and less snowy in the mountains than the 12Z run.

 

Sometimes it seems like the 00Z and 12Z runs of the EURO go back and forth. The last two 12Zs were great, the last two 00zs, not so much. I've noticed this trend before too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A resident of Washington state!

 

I will likely maintain my Oregon residency. I will be back here probably about a week a month. 

[TT-SEA]

I prefer American models when they show interesting things. 

 

Indeed.     We wlll see if the US can score a victory this time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Go Zags!

 

I should have tried to catch a game when I was up there in November. It is a hot ticket though. 

[TT-SEA]

I will likely maintain my Oregon residency. I will be back here probably about a week a month. 

 

For work?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For work?

 

Yes, just a temporary project they want me to work on. Once I get things up and running then I will be back down here. If it all works out it would be a great opportunity, but a lot of work. Probably would not have as much time to post for a while! 

[TT-SEA]

Yes, just a temporary project they want me to work on. Once I get things up and running then I will be back down here. If it all works out it would be a great opportunity, but a lot of work. Probably would not have as much time to post for a while! 

 

Will your wife and daughter move up there with you?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will your wife and daughter move up there with you?

 

As much as they can be. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50/36 today.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the east wind is starting up... temp back up to 45 here.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS...

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[Front Ranger]

Flying to Florida today. First time flying during a pandemic... should be fun!

[Front Ranger]

Jesse is a smart guy and yet plays so dumb with this stuff.

 

The average rainfall in March in Sedro Wooley just to your north and inland a little more is 4.32 inches... the average rainfall in March in Arlington just to your south is 4.45 inches. The average rainfall at PDX in March 3.77 inches.

 

He implies that you live in the Hoh rainforest... when in reality the averages are not that different. What actually happened is another repeat of the NW flow precip pattern which focuses the rain on your area and out to my area and all of the central and north Cascades and adjacent foothills.

 

Instead of acknowledging that reality... he mocks you for reporting actual rainfall. The same areas continue to be more anomalously wet than other areas overall. Its a fact that I think all of us would like to change. Nature can be a b*tch.

You know how microclimates work, Tim. A mile or two and some elevation change can make a big difference. Those stations do not necessarily reflect Mossman.

[TT-SEA]

You know how microclimates work, Tim. A mile or two and some elevation change can make a big difference. Those stations do not necessarily reflect Mossman.

If you think going one mile east of I-5 on a relatively flat road takes you into the Hoh rainforest then you don't know this area like I thought you did. It's not that different.

 

I showed the map... the same areas to the north and east of Seattle are routinely wetter than normal while much of the rest of the area is not. That has been happening for whatever reason... and its certainly not Randy's fault. And he should be able to post rainfall totals without being mocked by Jesse.

[Front Ranger]

If you think going one mile east of I-5 on a relatively flat road takes you into the Hoh rainforest then you don't know this area like I thought you did. It's not that different.

 

I showed the map... the same areas to the north and east of Seattle are routinely wetter than normal while much of the rest of the area is not. That has been happening for whatever reason... and its certainly not Randy's fault. And he should be able to post rainfall totals without being mocked by Jesse.

None of this refutes what I said. And I never said anything about a rainforest.

 

I know that in many areas, precip increases quickly as you go east from Puget sound and higher in elevation.

[Front Ranger]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z Fv3 was not as cold, but the 06z ensembles are a step forward. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flying to Florida today. First time flying during a pandemic... should be fun!

 

Many prayers!

[TT-SEA]

Randy also clearly is a magnet for convergence, so you have to factor that in.

 

No... the c-zone is typically along the Snohomish/King County line.

 

Randy lives here... there is not some magical wet area up there.   He is in the same zone as Portland actually.  

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is... this keeps happening for whatever reason.    Its wetter than normal in the same areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mocking Randy for reporting actual anomalously high rainfall amounts does not change that fact.   We would all like nature to mix it up a little more.   

[jakerepp]

Flying to Florida today. First time flying during a pandemic... should be fun!

Just flew back from Phoenix yesterday. Didn't notice anything out of sorts at SeaTac. More people wearing masks for sure. 

[TT-SEA]

Just flew back from Phoenix yesterday. Didn't notice anything out of sorts at SeaTac. More people wearing masks for sure. 

 

 

Was the flight full?

 

Seems like there might be some travel deals to be had right now.

[TT-SEA]

06z Fv3 was not as cold, but the 06z ensembles are a step forward. 

 

 

My guess is that 12Z run will look more like the 00Z run... and be much colder.   

 

That is what happened with the 18Z run yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

Just flew back from Phoenix yesterday. Didn't notice anything out of sorts at SeaTac. More people wearing masks for sure.

Only a handful of mask wearers here. Of course, CO hasn't been affected to this point like WA.

[Front Ranger]

Was the flight full?

 

Seems like there might be some travel deals to be had right now.

The one I'm on is full. Even though United is offering free flight cancellations/changes because of the virus.

[Timmy]

Was the flight full?

 

Seems like there might be some travel deals to be had right now.

my wife told me round trip to Hawaii was like $240

[TT-SEA]

Some high clouds and 43 here... a light east wind too.   Really nice to hear the birds singing in the morning again.

[Jesse]

I think the biggest takeaway from the models the last 12-24 hours is how pathetically dry they have trended.

[Front Ranger]

my wife told me round trip to Hawaii was like $240

There have been deals to Hawaii for a few months...a friend got a flight there for $300 in January.

[Esquimalt]

06z Fv3 was not as cold, but the 06z ensembles are a step forward.

Showed a foot of snow here

[Jesse]

Pretty morning. Some light frost on the rooftops and a low of 34.

[GHweatherChris]

Do we have 2 lawyers on here now?