March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Do we have 2 lawyers on here now?

Tim is representing mossman pro bono.

[ShawniganLake]

CFS still looks good for cold Enso developing during the Summer

[Jesse]

12z GFS flips back to looking a little better for rain and mountain snow the next 7-10 days.

[Blizzard777]

Low 34* and currently 37* 

clouds rolling in Federal Way but I’m not in Federal Way!

Awesome sunny morning in Portland! Took a nice walk around the park yesterday and enjoyed the smells of Spring!

Flowers popping out everywhere here

 

 

[Jesse]

Low 34* and currently 37* 

clouds rolling in Federal Way but I’m not in Federal Way!

Awesome sunny morning in Portland! Took a nice walk around the park yesterday and enjoyed the smells of Spring!

Flowers popping out everywhere here

 

Those are some cool looking clouds.

[Blizzard777]

Those are some cool looking clouds.

I agree! Very unique looking 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last couple GFS runs have been much milder for next week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By the following week things really start cooling off. 

 

Holy cow this is for realz.

 

[Blizzard777]

Looking forward to spending much of next winter in Spokane. I haven't officially signed on for it yet, but looking pretty likely at this point. Probably going to be there a couple years. Will be bummed if I miss too much snow at home. 

Exciting adventure to live temporarily in new location!  

[Christensen87]

March 16 arctic blast, lock it in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 16 arctic blast, lock it in!

 

I think we can throw this one out as an outlier. I would have trouble believing this run in mid-winter. -13C 850mb temps at PDX in mid-March. Give me a break. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some really bad news out of South Central Oregon. Governor Brown has declared drought conditions in Klamath County.

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2020/03/gov-kate-brown-declares-drought-in-klamath-county.html

[Jesse]

Some really bad news out of South Central Oregon. Governor Brown has declared drought conditions in Klamath County.

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2020/03/gov-kate-brown-declares-drought-in-klamath-county.html

They are planning on removing three dams on the Klamath River over the next several years to improve fish passage there.

[TT-SEA]

My guess is that 12Z run will look more like the 00Z run... and be much colder.

 

That is what happened with the 18Z run yesterday.

Good call.

[Timmy]

March 2011?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They are planning on removing three dams on the Klamath River over the next several years to improve fish passage there.

 

Always sad to see a source of clean renewable energy taken off line. Trout do very well in the upper Klamath River because of the cold water releases from the dams too, especially below JC Boyle. Hope they do not suffer. 

[TT-SEA]

Some really bad news out of South Central Oregon. Governor Brown has declared drought conditions in Klamath County.

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2020/03/gov-kate-brown-declares-drought-in-klamath-county.html

Probably be all of Oregon soon unless nature decides to balance things out eventually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably be all of Oregon soon unless nature decides to balance things out eventually.

 

From the look of that March map you posted last night much of Washington will be in trouble soon too. The Snoqualmie Valley and Mossman should do well though.

[Jesse]

Always sad to see a source of clean renewable energy taken off line. Trout do very well in the upper Klamath River because of the cold water releases from the dams too, especially below JC Boyle. Hope they do not suffer. 

 

lol

[ShawniganLake]

Always sad to see a source of clean renewable energy taken off line. Trout do very well in the upper Klamath River because of the cold water releases from the dams too, especially below JC Boyle. Hope they do not suffer.

They should be encouraging and building new sources of renewable energy. We aren’t going to have enough electricity for everyone to recharge their Tesla’s

[Jesse]

They should be encouraging and building new sources of renewable energy. We aren’t going to have enough electricity for everyone to recharge their Tesla’s

 

The dams are really old and at this point cost more to maintain than the small amount of energy they are producing, from what I can tell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

lol

 

Honestly with the effects of climate change, removing those dams will probably make no difference. May as well preserve the tailrace fishery for trout.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They should be encouraging and building new sources of renewable energy. We aren’t going to have enough electricity for everyone to recharge their Tesla’s

 

If we were serious about clean energy we would be constructing more nuclear power plants. 

[Jesse]

Honestly with the effects of climate change, removing those dams will probably make no difference. May as well preserve the tailrace fishery for trout.

 

Similar projects on the White Salmon and Elwha have been met with a lot of success. Of course, I am also well aware this is not a real conversation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The dams are really old and at this point cost more to maintain than the small amount of energy they are producing, from what I can tell.

 

I'm mostly kidding, but as a taxpayer and consumer it is absolutely ridiculous to see billions of dollars spent throughout the NW on fish passage facilities, cooling towers, etc... Which have made very little impact on fish runs. Those runs are never going to be close to what they once were. It is not worth the money. As humans we try to have it both ways, times change and you cannot go back. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This may be hard to believe, but the 12z GFS was a huge outlier. 

 

Similar projects on the White Salmon and Elwha have been met with a lot of success. Of course, I am also well aware this is not a real conversation.

 

Just because people have different opinions does not mean it is not a real conversation. I think in principle dam removal is a great idea. Logically though most of the money we spend on those kinds of projects is pretty pointless. 

 

Ending commercial fishing, limiting sport fishing to catch and release, and killing about 90% of the current pinniped population in the PNW would probably deliver a lot more bang for the buck.

[Jesse]

I'm mostly kidding, but as a taxpayer and consumer it is absolutely ridiculous to see billions of dollars spent throughout the NW on fish passage facilities, cooling towers, etc... Which have made very little impact on fish runs. Those runs are never going to be close to what they once were. It is not worth the money. As humans we try to have it both ways, times change and you cannot go back. 

 

Dam removal is probably one of the best ways to have a direct impact on salmon runs. Most of the other projects are just skirting around the issue and trying to avoid dam removal at all costs (it certainly isn't feasible in many places, there are many dams that are an important part of our energy grid now for better or for worse). I agree a lot of those projects are just vanity and a waste of money. But if a dam is old and dilapidated anyway and continued maintenance would cost more in the long run than removal, the removal option makes sense to me. It's never black and white.

[Jesse]

This may be hard to believe, but the 12z GFS was a huge outlier. 

 

 

Just because people have different opinions does not mean it is not a real conversation. I think in principle dam removal is a great idea. Logically though most of the money we spend on those kinds of projects is pretty pointless. 

 

Ending commercial fishing, limiting sport fishing to catch and release, and killing about 90% of the current pinniped population in the PNW would probably deliver a lot more bang for the buck.

 

Obviously not, but you're reponses were mostly trolling. You even said you'reself you were mostly kidding.

 

Just like those GREAT IDEAS the last paragraph here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously not, but you're reponses were mostly trolling. You even said you'reself you were mostly kidding.

 

Just like those GREAT IDEAS the last paragraph here.

 

You haven't quite figured me out yet. 

[Jesse]

You haven't quite figured me out yet. 

 

I think I have more or less. Most the stuff I would have to say might get me suspended here though. 

[Jesse]

12Z ensembles are pretty solid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think I have more or less. Most the stuff I would have to say might get me suspended here though. 

 

Silly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ensembles are pretty solid.

 

Quite a step back from the 06z ensembles. 

[Jesse]

Silly

 

Comment?

[Jesse]

Quite a step back from the 06z ensembles. 

 

They are essentially the same.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles.

 

[Jesse]

Andrew seeing the ensembles.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Ensemble looks cool. A degree or 2 warmer than the 6Z though

[jakerepp]

Was the flight full?

 

Seems like there might be some travel deals to be had right now.

Not close, really. They said 113/143 but the 737-700 holds 143 and we were on an -800, which holds 175. So I'm wondering if any of those numbers were correct. But there are over 20 daily non-stop flights between SEA and PHX each way so that might just be part of it. 

[jakerepp]

my wife told me round trip to Hawaii was like $240

Yeah, Alaska is throwing out some insane deals, along with allowing flight changes and cancellations. One-ways to any Hawaiian location from SEA start at $99 right now, and some shorter routes, like LAX-LAS are starting at $20.