March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

The dams are really old and at this point cost more to maintain than the small amount of energy they are producing, from what I can tell.

Saw this the other day.....not a bad idea.  Didn’t  dig into the pros or cons but seems like it should work and why didn’t I think of it! 

http://www.thechicecologist.com/green-design/lucidpipe-renewable-hydropower/

[TT-SEA]

FUN

 

PDX SCORES

 

 

 

Sort of what the ECMWF showed just a little farther south.  

 

The ECMWF showed what almost looks like a mini-AR event with cold air to the north seeping southward and turning it snow from Seattle northward.    Looking at the details... almost all of that snow on the ECMWF falls with temps in the 35-37 degree range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a great run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sort what the ECMWF showed just a little farther south.  

 

The ECMWF showed what almost looks like a mini-AR event with cold air to the north seeping southward and turning it snow from Seattle northward.    Looking at the details... almost all of that snow on the ECMWF falls with temps in the 35-37 degree range.

 

The 12z GFS was much warmer for next weekend than the GEM and EURO, so not surprising to see it come around a bit. Long range is way different on this run. 

[TT-SEA]

Not a great run.

 

 

The 12Z and 00Z runs have been cold... the 18Z and 06Z runs have been warmer.

 

The 00Z run will be colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles look another touch warmer. 

[Front Ranger]

The 12Z and 00Z runs have been cold... the 18Z and 06Z runs have been warmer.

 

The 00Z run will be colder.

Warm ups and cool downs. Science.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still some potential on those ensembles. 

[Timmy Supercell]

IT IS SEVENTY TWO IN REDMOND 

[MossMan]

IT IS SEVENTY TWO IN REDMOND

47 here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Dont know if this has been posted. Big GEFS update coming.

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

Coming Q4, the big GEFS upgrade to v12.0.

Summary:

-Model core change to FV3

-0.25deg resolution

-Physical parameterization upgrades

-Ensemble members increases from 21 to 31.

-5% error reduction in Tropical Cyclone Tracks

-15-20% error reduction in temperatures 48hr

 

Extending forecast to 35 days.

-MJO forecast skill extended 2-3 days c.f. to CFSv2.

-Significant improvements to CONUS probabilistic QPF scores by 25-30% for days 1-5 forecasts for all precipitation thresholds.

-Useful ensemble mean forecast skill extended by 0.6 days (to 10.4d)

 

The 35 day run will be once per day, 0Z run

[MossMan]

Dont know if this has been posted. Big GEFS update coming.

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

Coming Q4, the big GEFS upgrade to v12.0.

Summary:

-Model core change to FV3

-0.25deg resolution

-Physical parameterization upgrades

-Ensemble members increases from 21 to 31.

-5% error reduction in Tropical Cyclone Tracks

-15-20% error reduction in temperatures 48hr

 

Extending forecast to 35 days.

-MJO forecast skill extended 2-3 days c.f. to CFSv2.

-Significant improvements to CONUS probabilistic QPF scores by 25-30% for days 1-5 forecasts for all precipitation thresholds.

-Useful ensemble mean forecast skill extended by 0.6 days (to 10.4d)

 

The 35 day run will be once per day, 0Z run

35 day runs!

[TT-SEA]

35 day runs!

 

 

That will add to the fun here!

 

And this is confirmation that the GFS ensembles are still not upgraded.   No wonder they have been misleading us all winter with MASSIVE IMPROVEMENTS.   

[Timmy Supercell]

65/19 here!

[Omegaraptor]

You’ve heard of 384 hours...

 

You’ve heard of 768 hours...

 

Are you ready for 840 hours?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

You’ve heard of 384 hours...

 

You’ve heard of 768 hours...

 

Are you ready for 840 hours?

It's basically like the Euro weeklies, but every day instead of 2x week. And probably not as accurate.

[Front Ranger]

That will add to the fun here!

 

And this is confirmation that the GFS ensembles are still not upgraded. No wonder they have been misleading us all winter with MASSIVE IMPROVEMENTS.

That was confirmed quite awhile ago.

[Front Ranger]

It's basically like the Euro weeklies, but every day instead of 2x week. And probably not as accurate.

Will be yet another source of excitement/anxiety/controversy/American shame!

[Timmy Supercell]

You’ve heard of 384 hours...

 

You’ve heard of 768 hours...

 

Are you ready for 840 hours?

 

There used to be a free CFS model that went out 4320 hours. What ever happened to that one?

[Omegaraptor]

There used to be a free CFS model that went out 4320 hours. What ever happened to that one?

 

Clearly Accuweather 90 day is the best long range forecast model. Currently showing lots of t-storms for Portland in mid-May.

[MossMan]

Rain started about an hour ago.

.10” so far. 43 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

1951 and 2009 similarities?

[TacomaWaWx]

56/38 day today.

[Timmy Supercell]

6.5 feet of snow fell here in the '51-'52 winter. That part of the century was very snowy though, I don't think any of the locals ever mentioned 1952. 1950, and 1956 buried us even more significantly so. 

[ShawniganLake]

Brutal

It’s gonna change 10 times anyway.

2-3” this late in the season would be pretty good for Victoria

[ShawniganLake]

Temps dropped to 39F this afternoon with a little light rain.

[MossMan]

Up to .21”!

[Phil]

Dont know if this has been posted. Big GEFS update coming.

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

Coming Q4, the big GEFS upgrade to v12.0.

Summary:

-Model core change to FV3

-0.25deg resolution

-Physical parameterization upgrades

-Ensemble members increases from 21 to 31.

-5% error reduction in Tropical Cyclone Tracks

-15-20% error reduction in temperatures 48hr

 

Extending forecast to 35 days.

-MJO forecast skill extended 2-3 days c.f. to CFSv2.

-Significant improvements to CONUS probabilistic QPF scores by 25-30% for days 1-5 forecasts for all precipitation thresholds.

-Useful ensemble mean forecast skill extended by 0.6 days (to 10.4d)

 

The 35 day run will be once per day, 0Z run

Been waiting for this.

[Phil]

You’ve heard of 384 hours...

 

You’ve heard of 768 hours...

 

Are you ready for 840 hours?

You think Andrew is balls to the wall crazy now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You think Andrew is balls to the wall crazy now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

You have absolutely no idea how excited I am to hear this news! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Temp has dropped 8 degrees in the last hour...currently 45 and heavy drizzle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still severe clear here and 41. 

[MossMan]

Up to .31”.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anemic post frontal airmass this weekend, especially for this time of year. 

[GHweatherChris]

Anemic post frontal airmass this weekend, especially for this time of year.

Yep, moisture looks good through hour 48 and then poof, dissapears.

[MossMan]

Anemic post frontal airmass this weekend, especially for this time of year.

No snow now.

[GHweatherChris]

No snow now.

Still a chance, but... not a great one.

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No snow now.

 

Will be chilly at night though!

[GHweatherChris]

We’re f*cked

Yep, but we have toilet paper here so we should be able to survive this weekend.