March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger 7606]

12Z EPS

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

Not a fan of the coming pattern. Could see a very warm March here...at least February was good.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

45F and mostly cloudy but dry.  Nice, seasonable day. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

Gusts around 30mph, a little breezy.

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

Not a fan of the coming pattern. Could see a very warm March here...at least February was good.

 

Since November has been a stretch of above average months. Due for a cool March.

[Deweydog 14121]

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

This spring can’t be kold since I predicted it.

 

98.2

 

Probably a cool first half and then we get a couple warm ups come May.

[Front Ranger 7606]

Since November has been a stretch of above average months. Due for a cool March.

 

February was a mixed bag for the West overall. Certainly not warm for the PNW lowlands, and quite cold for much of the Rocky Mountain region.

 

[Jesse 8951]

Looks like it’s the time of year for Phil’s constant ominous this summer is gonna melt ur faces off in the PNW posts. Although sadly it’s not like he’s been wrong about that lately.

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

Looks like it’s the time of year for Phil’s constant ominous this summer is gonna melt ur faces off in the PNW posts. Although sadly it’s not like he’s been wrong about that lately.

My May Gray and June Gloom complaints will be coming pretty soon too.

[Deweydog 14121]

Probably a cool first half and then we get a couple warm ups come May.

Warm ups followed by cool downs followed by a 690,000,000 square mile 4CH?

[Phil 11798]

Not a fan of the coming pattern. Could see a very warm March here...at least February was good.

Same. This pattern is oozing with bad vibes for the warm season. Fingers crossed that the Sun does it’s best Betelgeuse impression and abruptly decreases in luminosity, canceling summer and bringing back winter.

[snow_wizard 11786]

One significant change on the 12z EPS vs earlier runs is it shows a considerably lower WPO than previous runs as the month unfolds.  Sometimes a WPO drop is good for amplifying the pattern over the NC and NE Pacific.

[snow_wizard 11786]

According to NWS Medford I had the 5th driest February on record. I would also have liked a comparison to other warm Februaries, this one was a tad warmer than the couple we had in the drought years last decade.

 

A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

[snow_wizard 11786]

Same. This pattern is oozing with bad vibes for the warm season. Fingers crossed that the Sun does it’s best Betelgeuse impression and abruptly decreases in luminosity, canceling summer and bringing back winter.

 

I would love to have control of the dimmer switch!

[Phil 11798]

Looks like it’s the time of year for Phil’s constant ominous this summer is gonna melt ur faces off in the PNW posts. Although sadly it’s not like he’s been wrong about that lately.

I call ‘em as I see ‘em. Not making a summer call until the final warming/seasonal transition is underway, but there are more doors to a very large 4CH vs last year.

 

And FWIW, last year I predicted a near average summer in the PNW, with more moisture and a smaller 4CH, and it largely verified, except for September (which I thought would be warmer). But seasonal transitions can be extremely difficult, so I’ll give myself a pass there.

[Front Ranger 7606]

Looks like it’s the time of year for Phil’s constant ominous this summer is gonna melt ur faces off in the PNW posts. Although sadly it’s not like he’s been wrong about that lately.

 

Seems like Phil has actually been one of the "cooler" voices about several recent summers. He's been too cool in just about every summer forecast contest.

 

Last summer definitely was different, though. Considerably less heatwaves or even really warm stretches than the summers in the 2013-2018 period. Just look at the 95+, 90+, and 85+ numbers most places.

 

Also, on the bright side, almost every summer after 2014 has featured an abrupt end and turned fall-ish by mid to late September.

[Front Ranger 7606]

A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

 

You didn't even have to go very far south to hit the dryness. OLM was 36% below normal precip in Feb.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

Yeah Feb was almost 4" below normal for precip here.

[Front Ranger 7606]

I call ‘em as I see ‘em. Not making a summer call until the final warming/seasonal transition is underway, but there are more doors to a very large 4CH vs last year.

 

And FWIW, last year I predicted a near average summer in the PNW, with more moisture and a smaller 4CH, and it largely verified, except for September (which I thought would be warmer). But seasonal transitions can be extremely difficult, so I’ll give myself a pass there.

 

I think the correlation between a large/strong 4CH high and hot PNW summers is somewhat overplayed on here. It also depends on what part of summer you are talking about...the 4CH is much more of a factor in the first half.

[Phil 11798]

Seems like Phil has actually been one of the "cooler" voices about several recent summers. He's been too cool in just about every summer forecast contest.

 

Last summer definitely was different, though. Considerably less heatwaves or even really warm stretches than the summers in the 2013-2018 period. Just look at the 95+, 90+, and 85+ numbers most places.

 

Also, on the bright side, almost every summer after 2014 has featured an abrupt end and turned fall-ish by mid to late September.

That’s mostly because I lack understanding of some of the local boundary layer dynamics and UHI at some stations. It’s why you guys throw in the pity DCA station in the summer forecast contest. I’m at a disadvantage already and am still learning how things work at the surface out there.

 

But I did mostly fine with large scale pattern projection, with the exception of 2017, when the Hadley/Walker/WP system flipped on me, well ahead of my expectations. I remember that bust like it was yesterday and have been careful to avoid making it again.

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

 

It could switch back, who knows. Nov-Dec-Jan featured quite a few storms in this section of the NW.

[Phil 11798]

I think the correlation between a large/strong 4CH high and hot PNW summers is somewhat overplayed on here. It also depends on what part of summer you are talking about...the 4CH is much more of a factor in the first half.

Sure it depends, but there’s no consistent seasonal bias over time based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.

 

Under the systemic tendency of +PMM/+TNH or +NAM, a large 4CH directly affects the PNW. And under the inverse (-PMM/reverse TNH or -NAM) the 4CH tends to center farther SE and affect the Intermountain West and Plains more directly.

[Omegaraptor 2393]

A really strong N to S gradient on the precip last month it would appear.  I'm particularly interested in the stats for N Cal that showed this being the driest Feb since the Civil War.  Big anomalies like that often have big implications going forward.

 

I made a post about NorCal precip earlier. Many 0.00" stations including some very wet foothill areas like Nevada City. San Francisco's 0.00" was the driest since 1864. Sacramento picked up a trace on the 29th but still broke the all time record of 0.04" in 1899. Redding finished 0.00" (previous record was 0.14" in 1988). Record smashing dryness down there.

 

You didn't even have to go very far south to hit the dryness. OLM was 36% below normal precip in Feb.

 

PDX was 42% of normal and HIO was just 34% of normal. The domination of NW flow really allowed the coast range to sponge most of the precip up before it reached the valley.

 

[MossMan 10611]

All in all winter was a success...Especially the second half. If I lived from King Co south I would be disagreeing with myself however. About 16” of total snowfall, a big windstorm, and massive amounts of rainfall.

 

Anyway up to a whopping 42 degrees. Was just put pulling a few weeds, then got cold and tired.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

45 and mostly cloudy here. Looks like the models are still showing a cooler airmass moving in Saturday...we will see how cold it actually is on the models in a couple days.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

Up to 48F down here.

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

A few of the gusts in the last 10 minutes sound like 40-45. Tonight is garbage night, so I'm gonna wait until dark before pulling out my bins.

[TT-SEA 3764]

[Omegaraptor 2393]

 

I know snowpack is good up in the WA mountains. NW flow means the WA mountains get lots of precip.

 

Mt Hood and Willamette basins are doing pretty okay for the most part. Southern OR basins are starting to run dry with Klamath basin under 70%. Trinity/Shasta/north Sierra basin is 51% and the central-southern Sierras are just above 40%.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

Nws. Disc. About cold trough next week. Cliff mass also posted a blog about it...still a couple days before it’s in the believable range on the models though. Would be marginal at best nothing to be too excited about still near the sound below 500’.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

47/32 mostly cloudy day here.

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

I say we hold a worldwide vote to ban climates at sea level to 1000 ft that are not tropical.

 

Yes, Hawaii still has snow in the high mountains.

[Jesse 8951]

I say we hold a worldwide vote to ban climates at sea level to 1000 ft that are not tropical.

 

Yes, Hawaii still has snow in the high mountains.

Have you and Omegaraptor had a chance to meet for coffee yet?

[MossMan 10611]

Raining. 37 degrees.

[GHweatherChris 3525]

Raining. 37 degrees.

Maybe you will see some flakage!

[MossMan 10611]

Maybe you will see some flakage!

Possibly!

[SilverFallsAndrew 14950]

Down to 31 already this evening. 

[GHweatherChris 3525]

Funky system moving in.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Funky system moving in.

Warm front rain and drizzle until Wednesday.

[Phil 11798]

Warm front rain and drizzle until Wednesday.

Snooze. Save that crap for summer.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Snooze. Save that crap for summer.

So true... I truly dread our normal mid to upper 70s and sunny with low humidity summer weather.

 

I apply your opinion of DC weather that is 3,000 miles away to our summer weather here even though it makes no logical sense.

[El_Nina 1184]

Warm front rain and drizzle until Wednesday.

I can't believe your immunity to it is still so low after all the exposure the past few years.

[GHweatherChris 3525]

Warm front rain and drizzle until Wednesday.

Not really.

[Deweydog 14121]

I can't believe your immunity to it is still so low after all the exposure the past few years.

Nothing a few Coronas can’t cure...

[snow_wizard 11786]

The Corona Virus is hitting really close to home now.  My wife works at Kentwood High School and they are closed tomorrow due to the possibility some of the students were infected by a parent that visited the nursing home where it has gotten a foothold.  The person in question does have symptoms.  Yikes.

[Deweydog 14121]

That poor parent may run a fever and get a cough and a runny nose and a headache.

 

Wait a minute......

 

98.2

[snow_wizard 11786]

The models are coming really close to a setup that could deliver some pretty serious cold for this time of year.  Still a lot of uncertainty, but it looks interesting.

 

In other news just about a month with no sunspots and the flux values continue to steadily drop.  Wow!

[snow_wizard 11786]

That poor parent may run a fever and get a cough and a runny nose and a headache.

 

Wait a minute......

 

98.2

 

2 people have died out of less than 50 confirmed cases in the Seattle area.  A third is in critical condition.  Nothing to take lightly at this point.

[Deweydog 14121]

2 people have died out of less than 50 confirmed cases in the Seattle area. A third is in critical condition. Nothing to take lightly at this point.

Donnie says everything is gonna be just phine.

[snow_wizard 11786]

Donnie says everything is gonna be just phine.

 

This is rare case where I'm completely in the middle.  I get really nervous when officials say this is going to be a cakewalk.  On the other hand full blown hysteria isn't serving us well either.