March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Yep, but we have toilet paper here so we should be able to survive this weekend.

I think we are just about out. Not good as I’m sure the stores are out too. Nothing prevents flu like symptoms better than a bathroom fully stocked with toilet paper.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is much drier through next weekend. Warmer too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This really sucks guys .

[FroYoBro]

HUGE SURPRISE. 

 

DEVASTATING. 

[Omegaraptor]

2nd year Niño.

 

+2SD polar vortex.

 

Not enough GLAAM.

 

UHI.

[Christensen87]

lol this is quickly dissipating. What a shitty winter in terms of weather and model riding ugh

[El_Nina]

This really sucks guys .

Cool nights at least!

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs is a major warm outlier after the 13th

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice little trough on the GEM.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Coldest gem run in awhile.

[TT-SEA]

Coldest gem run in awhile.

But the 00Z GEM is actually quite warm before that. I am sure it has it nailed perfectly after day 8 though.

[ShawniganLake]

But the 00Z GEM is actually quite warm before that. I am sure it has it nailed perfectly after day 8 though.

We agree. It likely has day 8 plus nailed down. I am actually not sure why we discuss these silly models. Let’s just wait for the EPS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow that trough late next week is really showing up on the ensembles. 

[MossMan]

.41”

39 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m honestly just not seeing anything interesting happening this month in terms of cold or lowland snow. Andrew and Mossman and Tim will probably see something though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble improvements. Dare I say massive.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve picked up 0.06” today and we’re up to 0.10” for march.

[Phil]

Ensemble improvements. Dare I say massive.

Remember the GEFS is technically running on the old GFS framework in a lot of ways.

 

It’s a pretty crappy model. Almost always underdispersed.

[TT-SEA]

Remember the GEFS is technically running on the old GFS framework in a lot of ways.

 

It’s a pretty crappy model. Almost always underdispersed.

 

 

It has been perpetually misleading us all winter... why stop now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has been perpetually misleading us all winter... why stop now?

 

I am praying Jim will be here in two weeks rubbing our faces in greatness.

[TT-SEA]

I am praying Jim will be here in two weeks rubbing our faces in greatness.

 

 

I will pray for the opposite to offset your prayer.     And warmer weather will help with the virus crap... so maybe God will lean my way.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will pray for the opposite to offset your prayer.     And warmer weather will help with the virus crap... so maybe God will lean my way.   

 

It has been said the Lord works in mysterious ways. 

[GHweatherChris]

I will pray for the opposite to offset your prayer. And warmer weather will help with the virus crap... so maybe God will lean my way.

What virus crap?

[TT-SEA]

Watching Narcos Mexico season 2 and one episode opens with someone singing along to Eddie Money and Take Me Home Tonight... and of course I wonder if that song was released when this episode is supposedly set... then I read about Eddie dying last fall... and then just watched him perform that song live in numerous different concerts during the 80s.   Goofy internet rabbit holes.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still shows lowland snow late next week...

 

[MossMan]

Up to .48”

Temp down to 38.

[ShawniganLake]

Just 0.09” of rain here. I think it has cleared off. Temp down to 34F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good ensembles fwiw.

[TT-SEA]

That is one slow moving front... its in the exact same place as when I went to bed.    Stalled right over the Seattle area.

 

SEA is up .50 now... nice to see rain there since that area was shadowed with the system earlier this week.

[TacomaWaWx]

Light rain and 38 degrees....we’ve picked up 0.30” since midnight and 0.47” since the rain started. So we’re at 0.51” for march now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain isn't even close down here. We may get a few hundredths if we are lucky.

[TacomaWaWx]

00Z ECMWF still shows lowland snow late next week...

 

would be the biggest late season snowfall since April 08? Last time we had snow like that in March was 2001 maybe? Either way it’s pretty far out still.

[TT-SEA]

Rain isn't even close down here. We may get a few hundredths if we are lucky.

 

 

Surprising... a front that stalls over WA and brings decent rainfall amounts here while missing OR.  

 

The story of the rainy season for 2019-20.  

[ShawniganLake]

would be the biggest late season snowfall since April 08? Last time we had snow like that in March was 2001 maybe? Either way it’s pretty far out still.

Are you asking for Tacoma specifically? Other areas have seen snow in March more recently than 2008. The WV had the big one in 2012

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 years ago today Salem had about 2" of snow. We had about 10" up here, it was the biggest and last event of a great winter up here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Are you asking for Tacoma specifically? Other areas have seen snow in March more recently than 2008. The WV had the big one in 2012

I was talking regionally not any specific area. I forgot about the snow in Oregon in March 2012...but april 2008 was the most recent example I could remember for late season snow around the whole Puget sound. We had a 1/2” of snow here in March 2012 but I wasn’t sure how widespread that was across western WA.

[TacomaWaWx]

The snow in March 2012 was also in early March...im trying to think of a regional snowfall past March 10th I guess would be the question.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The snow in March 2012 was also in early March...im trying to think of a regional snowfall past March 10th I guess would be the question.

 

It was actually the 21-22nd of March 2012 when the Willamette Valley had the big event. The south valley had 6-8", mid-valley 2-5", T-3" north valley. Accumulating snow over an area equal the distance from Olympia to Bellingham. 

[TacomaWaWx]

It was actually the 21-22nd of March 2012 when the Willamette Valley had the big event. The south valley had 6-8", mid-valley 2-5", T-3" north valley. Accumulating snow over an area equal the distance from Olympia to Bellingham.

 

wow I didn’t realize it was that much down there. Yeah i don’t think we ended up with snow that time. The most snow I can remember In March in my lifetime was last March when we had 1” of snow that was gone about 2 hours later. Haven’t really seen a legit winter event in March that I can remember. 2001 was too early for me to recall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

wow I didn’t realize it was that much down there. Yeah i don’t think we ended up with snow that time. The most snow I can remember In March in my lifetime was last March when we had 1” of snow that was gone about 2 hours later. Haven’t really seen a legit winter event in March that I can remember. 2001 was too early for me to recall.

 

What was even weirder was there was a system about a week earlier that produced 2-6" accumulations along the coast between Tillamook and Florence. Parts of the valley saw an inch or two with that event, but it was more spotty and elevation dependent once you moved inland.