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Almost all of it is melted now. lol

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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This is incredibly to see in late winter here.

Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint w

Current conditions:

Posted Images

Western WA is one of the driest areas compared to normal in the entire country per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days and a good part of CA is quite wet... a really nice change of pace.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-qpf-anom-10day

The presence of the STJ (still have the +ENSO lean) is a saving grace for folks in the SW. If this were a 2012 like Hadley/Walker system..I don’t even want to imagine. Not that we’d actually have an analogous AAM integral in that case, but still. Yikes.

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45 and still dry here for now.

 

We had a fair amount of sun this morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got snow/ice pellets/rain mix currently. 38 degrees.

it’s 39 here with moderate rain maybe we will see some flakes mixed in today.
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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west.

We’ll know a lot more by mid/late April.

 

I could envision a powerful 4CH that roasts the Intermountain West and Southwest but spares the PNW similar to 1988 (or a muted version of the dust bowl years). An outcome like 1998, 2007 or 2016 is also possible.

 

On the fringes of the spectrum are 2009 (warm) and 2010 (less so).

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Hwy 18 traffic is bad enough... now its closed for 4 days.    Luckily the virus hysteria is making traffic non-existent in the Seattle area.    :lol:

 

hwy18.png

 

SR-18-damage.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The EPS looks a lot colder with the trough late next week than the 0z.  More continental as well.  Interesting all of the operational models and the EPS control show a crazy amplified GOA / AK block at day 10 with the potential for a major unloading of very cold air as that evolves.

 

Looking at the post March 10 period there were very few examples of cold continental air making into the Western Lowlands after that date during the 20th century and so far this century.  Being the cold anomaly lover that I am I think it would be super cool if we can pull that off this time!  Maybe a trip back to the 19th century?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I understand maybe 10% of this but yeah probably going to be another hot and dry warm season for the west.

 

Way too early to speculate on that.  IMO the super positive AO will be made up for.  It is happening in a context when it should not be.  In most cases when that happens there is a huge snap back / making up for in the longer range.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Man, I don’t know what you are on but let me have some. This has been such a boring winter for everyone in the lowlands south of Seattle, and the models are gradually watering down the potential for anything interesting mid month. Really no way to sugar coat things right now.

 

Just acknowledging the incredible blocking being advertised on the models.  This month will be cold...the question is how cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Currently an impessivley cold 42 degrees.  The second day with really chilly afternoon temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The EPS looks a lot colder with the trough late next week than the 0z.  More continental as well.  Interesting all of the operational models and the EPS control show a crazy amplified GOA / AK block at day 10 with the potential for a major unloading of very cold air as that evolves.

 

Looking at the post March 10 period there were very few examples of cold continental air making into the Western Lowlands after that date during the 20th century and so far this century.  Being the cold anomaly lover that I am I think it would be super cool if we can pull that off this time!  Maybe a trip back to the 19th century?

 

 

It shows a ULL dropping south and then ridging slowly building in... probably a couple chilly days about like yesterday and today and then possibly some more spring-like weather.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good god that warm pool is on steroids.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Keep in mind those are the warmest waters on the planet that are on fire there.

 

cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

 

Looks like a Nina trying to unfold.  Emerging cool anom in the east Equatorial Pacific and warm in the west.  Also looks like a -PDO "horseshoe" developing now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like there will be some clearing in the Seattle area after about 2 p.m.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like a Nina trying to unfold. Emerging cool anom in the east Equatorial Pacific and warm in the west. Also looks like a -PDO "horseshoe" developing now.

Could go either way. Descending easterly shear/-QBO favors El Niño, however the IPWP vacillation cycle clearly favors La Niña, as does the timing of the ERW-KW cycle.

 

It could, again, ultimately come down to the nature of the final warming/seasonal transition, which plays a part in setting the low pass RW structure for boreal summer. If there’s a dynamic transition, a number of possibilities are on the table. IMO this is a clear example of potentially divergent outcomes. A state dependent threshold crossing, if you will.

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Personally I’m hoping for neutral ENSO next winter given the evolution of the QBO (will likely have easterlies dominating the lower stratosphere with descending westerlies at/above 30mb). Statistically speaking at this range, reducing the prominence of the low pass component in the wave state increases the odds those conduits to extreme blocking under said QBO would be utilized.

 

Too much La Niña under -QBO is more of a destructive interference in terms of how they’re communicated via the NPAC High and the end result is often dirty Aleutian Ridge/+EPO, though it’s not always the case nor is it unshakable. Especially in solar minimum/weaker solar cycles in general, there are clusters of exceptions. But generally, the heavy La Niñas perform for the PNW more consistently under +QBO, and that’s true irrespective of solar, where-as in -QBO it’s more fickle and more dependent on solar and also the IPWP structure.

 

As for El Niño, those conduits to blocking are generally more open with weak canonical/modoki type events but once into strong territory it becomes problematic even if it’s a solid wave-1 without IPWP/IOD interference. If it’s an EP based event or under high solar, game over.

 

Not that we’ll have to worry about this next winter, but raging solar and/or aerosol feedbacks (thermal wind amplification/etc) alone can render all of this inert. See 1989/90, 1991/92, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1999/00, etc.

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But we don’t have that +PMM/+TNH nor the boundary conditions to force it at the moment.

 

So I don’t think we’ll see a pattern like 2013-18 develop, unless something substantial occurs during the seasonal transition to bump the system back that way. That regime is (probably) gone for real this time. Hasn’t really shown up since that SSW in Jan/Feb 2019.

 

There are other conduits to warm summers/winters, though. Unfortunately.

 

I hope you are correct regarding the 2013-2018 regime! Not only was a good portion of that a terrible drought period for California and even parts of the PNW at times, but it was downright warm to hot at times out of season. 2016-17 was a good year, though, despite being within that time period.

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Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint will be our final home. So excited to get into a climate with truly 4 beautiful and distinct seasons! I am soooo excited!!!! :D :wub: :) :wub:

 

If everything works out like we have planned, we will have our house built close to the golf community shown in this video:

 

 

 

1e04526ff5c512aeaa66e6ff7263bc77.jpeg Sandpoint_Idaho.jpg

Congrats!!
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Really strong cell with a very visible rotation on radar moving towards Vancouver BC. Some heavy showers moving into the Puget sound region too.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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The 18z GFS delivers some legit continental cold before day 10.  Still liking the chances of challenging the post March 10 benchmark for cold in the Western Lowlands in at least the past 50 years and possibly much further back than that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Really strong cell with a very visible rotation on radar moving towards Vancouver BC. Some heavy showers moving into the Puget sound region too.

 

Pretty dynamic / cold air mass we are in.  Late afternoon temps in the low 40s this deep into March is pretty decent and the 500mb pattern isn't as pretty as what looks to be coming later on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint will be our final home.  So excited to get into a climate with truly 4 beautiful and distinct seasons! I am soooo excited!!!!   :D  :wub:  :)  :wub:

 

If everything works out like we have planned, we will have our house built close to the golf community shown in this video:

 

 

 

attachicon.gif1e04526ff5c512aeaa66e6ff7263bc77.jpegattachicon.gifSandpoint_Idaho.jpg

 

Very cool.  I would hate having to go through apartment phase, but it sound like that will be short lived.  My wife is finally beyond convinced we have to get out of here too.  Just going to make the best of it until that happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Pretty dynamic / cold air mass we are in. Late afternoon temps in the low 40s this deep into March is pretty decent and the 500mb pattern isn't as pretty as what looks to be coming later on.

Rain snow mix here in Tacoma pretty chilly.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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It appears the models are finally in a nice little groove showing some really nice blocking during week 2.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Rain snow mix here in Tacoma pretty chilly.

 

I think a lot of places could see some wet snow.  I'm really looking forward to the cold nights coming up the next few days.  Some low to mid 20s look to be in the cards.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Very cool. I would hate having to go through apartment phase, but it sound like that will be short lived. My wife is finally beyond convinced we have to get out of here too. Just going to make the best of it until that happens.

Is your wife a snow fanatic as well?
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The 18z GFS delivers some legit continental cold before day 10.  Still liking the chances of challenging the post March 10 benchmark for cold in the Western Lowlands in at least the past 50 years and possibly much further back than that.

 

It's almost as if you're looking at different models than everybody else. You're setting yourself up to be massively dissapointed. Verbatim the Euro operational looks solidly chilly but not remotely close to historic, and that's the coldest solution any model is showing right now. It's also been getting pushed back and watered down the last few days which has been the theme all winter.

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It's almost as if you're looking at different models than everybody else. You're setting yourself up to be massively dissapointed. Verbatim the Euro operational looks solidly chilly but not remotely close to historic, and that's the coldest solution any model is showing right now. It's also been getting pushed back and watered down the last few days which has been the theme all winter.

 

Totally agree.  There has been hyping of the long range models since November and they have screwed us every single time except once and that was only for Seattle northward.   

 

And they are clearing backing off this time again.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think a lot of places could see some wet snow.  

 

Precip is winding down it appears... this the last batch of precip now and its breaking up.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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To illlustrate the model trends look at the difference for next weekend now that its within a week away...

 

This was the GFS just a few days ago for next weekend:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_45.png

 

 

And here is that the latest run shows for the same time:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_28.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good lord

 

 

I thought you were golfing?   Looks like it sunny out there now... get going!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Totally agree. There has been hyping of the long range models since November and they have screwed us every single time except once and that was only for Seattle northward.

 

And they are clearing backing off this time again.

Yeah just looked and after scanning the forum I was excited to see the 18z. Not really anything to look at.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Flakes are still coming down, it's just far too warm to stick on anything.

 

There is no evidence of that 1" that fell earlier. ;)

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I got you

Thanks, Timmy appreciate it.

 

 

Well we did have one decent hail shower/storm around 2:20 PM which did accumulate just a nad. Better than nothing. Quite an impressive trough on the 12z EURO Op.

 

C'MON!!!!

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