March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[seattleweatherguy 483]

The Corona Virus is hitting really close to home now. My wife works at Kentwood High School and they are closed tomorrow due to the possibility some of the students were infected by a parent that visited the nursing home where it has gotten a foothold. The person in question does have symptoms. Yikes.

Praying for you and your wife. I hope we avoid danger a case happened 10 mins away from my house

[SilverFallsAndrew 15806]

I am panicking about the panic. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15806]

This is rare case where I'm completely in the middle.  I get really nervous when officials say this is going to be a cakewalk.  On the other hand full blown hysteria isn't serving us well either.

 

The death rate is  not well understood yet. Overall the rate is about 3.4% of confirmed cases. However, in S. Korea where they are testing like everyone, it is about 0.5%. The high death rates may be because we have a very inaccurate count of cases, which I feel is likely, and also because it may be effecting different populations in different countries. For instance death rate is going to be a lot higher at a nursing home. 

 

My guess is thousands of people in the US have already had it it. 

[ShawniganLake 5539]

Hmm. The flu kills 10,000-20,000 Americans every year and we don’t panic over the flu season every year.

[snow_wizard 12290]

The ECMWF looks good for a hard frost around day 8 or so.  Chilly low level air mass with northerly gradients.  Could be an interesting month shaping up.

[Deweydog 14471]

The death rate is not well understood yet. Overall the rate is about 3.4% of confirmed cases. However, in S. Korea where they are testing like everyone, it is about 0.5%. The high death rates may be because we have a very inaccurate count of cases, which I feel is likely, and also because it may be effecting different populations in different countries. For instance death rate is going to be a lot higher at a nursing home.

 

My guess is thousands of people in the US have already had it it.

A whole lotta people will get this and it will never be detected. I may have it right now for all I know. Ran a fever for a couple days and what seems like a little case of bronchitis. My son has something similar. Winter (now early spring) in the Dewey household...

[snow_wizard 12290]

Hmm. The flu kills 10,000-20,000 Americans every year and we don’t panic over the flu season every year.

 

Hmm. The flu kills 10,000-20,000 Americans every year and we don’t panic over the flu season every year.

 

That is a very good point.  I'm still trying to figure out how much of this hype is justified and how much isn't.  The H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009 killed tens of thousands and yet it was just considered business as usual.  In actuality that one was a close cousin of the 1918 flu which was catastrophic.  Like 1918 the 2009 flu mainly killed people in the prime of their lives.  If we had been made aware of what was really going on that year there would have been some panic.  Sometimes ignorance is bliss!

[snow_wizard 12290]

Right now the models are at least within the envelope of what could evolve into a serious cold wave.  Many runs come really close to delivering something pretty good.

[Front Ranger 7689]

Hmm. The flu kills 10,000-20,000 Americans every year and we don’t panic over the flu season every year.

The WHO is a bunch of idiots.

 

There's a happy medium between panic and head in the sand, of course.

[Deweydog 14471]

That is a very good point. I'm still trying to figure out how much of this hype is justified and how much isn't. The H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009 killed tens of thousands and yet it was just considered business as usual. In actuality that one was a close cousin of the 1918 flu which was catastrophic. Like 1918 the 2009 flu mainly killed people in the prime of their lives. If we had been made aware of what was really going on that year there would have been some panic. Sometimes ignorance is bliss!

My wife got the swine flu back in 2009 and it knocked her the f*ck out. She was wishing for death. It was nothing like what Phil just went through (pray 4 Phil) but still pretty nasty.

[Deweydog 14471]

Doesn’t help that this thing is coinciding with the coldest March on record.

[Front Ranger 7689]

The death rate is not well understood yet. Overall the rate is about 3.4% of confirmed cases. However, in S. Korea where they are testing like everyone, it is about 0.5%. The high death rates may be because we have a very inaccurate count of cases, which I feel is likely, and also because it may be effecting different populations in different countries. For instance death rate is going to be a lot higher at a nursing home.

 

My guess is thousands of people in the US have already had it it.

That all could be true, and yet any bio scientist will tell you, don't underestimate a novel virus. It's not the same as a regular flu with known vaccines and treatment.

 

98% of people survived the Spanish flu.

[ShawniganLake 5539]

That all could be true, and yet any bio scientist will tell you, don't underestimate a novel virus. It's not the same as a regular flu with known vaccines and treatment.

 

98% of people survived the Spanish flu.

Are you a bio scientist?

[Deweydog 14471]

Are you a bio scientist?

Are you a bio scientist?

[Phil 12465]

[ShawniganLake 5539]

Are you a bio scientist?

No

But trust me I’m a doctor

[Deweydog 14471]

[Deweydog 14471]

[TigerWoodsLibido 5919]

Down to 34F.

[Deweydog 14471]

Down to 34F.

Taken rectal or oral?

[umadbro 778]

Right now the models are at least within the envelope of what could evolve into a serious cold wave. Many runs come really close to delivering something pretty good.

Should we all be falling in line again?

[TT-SEA 4928]

I can't believe your immunity to it is still so low after all the exposure the past few years.

 

Chris said it was funky...  I said its warm front drizzle and light rain until Wednesday.     Its not too unusual or funky.  

 

Not my favorite weather... but does "immunity" mean you don't even recognize its happening?     

[TT-SEA 4928]

00Z EPS:

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

When the EPS is not on board... I don't expect much.   It was on board only once this past winter and that was the one time that arctic air did make it into WA state.

[Front Ranger 7689]

Are you a bio scientist?

Of course!!

 

But I've listened to what they've said and wrote.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15806]

My wife got the swine flu back in 2009 and it knocked her the f*ck out. She was wishing for death. It was nothing like what Phil just went through (pray 4 Phil) but still pretty nasty.

 

My brother got that flu in 2009. He says he has permanent effects from it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15806]

00Z EPS:

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

When the EPS is not on board... I don't expect much.   It was on board only once this past winter and that was the one time that arctic air did make it into WA state.

 

Looking good!

[GHweatherChris 3774]

Chris said it was funky... I said its warm front drizzle and light rain until Wednesday. Its not too unusual or funky.

 

Not my favorite weather... but does "immunity" mean you don't even recognize its happening?

You took what I said completely wrong.

[El_Nina 1186]

Chris said it was funky...  I said its warm front drizzle and light rain until Wednesday.     Its not too unusual or funky.  

 

Not my favorite weather... but does "immunity" mean you don't even recognize its happening?     

Considering how you said a couple days ago that we as humans build up immunity to things we are exposed to, I thought I would apply that same logic to warm front drizzle. You claim that to the north and east of Seattle the foothills have gotten a record setting amount of warm front drizzle the past 3 or so years. So by now, after nearly a thousand days of this, you should be building up an immunity to it.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15806]

Got down to freezing this morning. Up to 34 and cloudy.

[TT-SEA 4928]

Considering how you said a couple days ago that we as humans build up immunity to things we are exposed to, I thought I would apply that same logic to warm front drizzle. You claim that to the north and east of Seattle the foothills have gotten a record setting amount of warm front drizzle the past 3 or so years. So by now, after nearly a thousand days of this, you should be building up an immunity to it.

Still no idea what immunity means... the inability to recognize warm fronts?

[El_Nina 1186]

Still no idea what immunity means... the inability to recognize warm fronts?

We've had all the immunity to warm fronts you could dream of down here.

[El_Nina 1186]

We've had all the immunity to warm fronts you could dream of down here.

The immunity is running weak, warm front drizzle has commenced here.

[Jesse 9511]

We've had all the immunity to warm fronts you could dream of down here.

Don’t roast and post kids.

[BLI snowman 7066]

I like drizzle.

[Omegaraptor 2531]

My opinion on drizzle is no secret to anyone here. Either deliver a proper rainstorm or get off the pot.

[MossMan 11005]

.17” so far on the day, and currently raining and 37.

[Jesse 9511]

My opinion on drizzle is no secret to anyone here. Either deliver a proper rainstorm or get off the pot.

Our climate is listening and taking notes. Keep fighting the good fight.

 

When down in the Redwoods I found it pretty interesting how much those huge trees depend on drizzle and fog drip to survive the long, dry summers at that latitude. Up to 2/3 of their annual average water intake may be through capturing drizzle and fog. Coastal Sitka spruce forests are similar in our region, although they also have the benefit of a longer rainy season.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5919]

Got down to 34F

[Jesse 9511]

I like drizzle.

Me too. It seems to be one of the most universally maligned weather types here and I can’t figure out why. It’s just light, gentle mist. Adds a lot of mood and atmosphere to any setting.

[Front Ranger 7689]

Me too. It seems to be one of the most universally maligned weather types here and I can’t figure out why. It’s just light, gentle mist. Adds a lot of mood and atmosphere to any setting.

Great for the skin, too! No chapstick needed.

[Omegaraptor 2531]

Our climate is listening and taking notes. Keep fighting the good fight.

 

When down in the Redwoods I found it pretty interesting how much those huge trees depend on drizzle and fog drip to survive the long, dry summers at that latitude. Up to 2/3 of their annual average water intake may be through capturing drizzle and fog. Coastal Sitka spruce forests are similar in our region, although they also have the benefit of a longer rainy season.

 

Do I have to like everything about the climate I live in? I know drizzle is climo in winter, doesn't mean I have to like it. Snow is rare in the lowland PNW and it's not climo, and what do we spend all winter on this forum doing?

 

If you live in southern Arizona, then you're not allowed to express that you like rain. Sorry @AJ1013

[Jesse 9511]

Do I have to like everything about the climate I live in? I know drizzle is climo in winter, doesn't mean I have to like it. Snow is rare in the lowland PNW and it's not climo, and what do we spend all winter on this forum doing?

 

If you live in southern Arizona, then you're not allowed to express that you like rain. Sorry @AJ1013

 

I thought the nod to northern California would provoke a more charitable response from you. Better luck next time I guess.

[Jesse 9511]

A whole lotta people will get this and it will never be detected. I may have it right now for all I know. Ran a fever for a couple days and what seems like a little case of bronchitis. My son has something similar. Winter (now early spring) in the Dewey household...

 

I was sick for a few days early last week and was kind of hoping that was what it is, just to get it out of the way with a mild version. Lots of nasal congestion on day one followed by it moving to the lungs the next few days after that with a coughing mucus fest. By day three I was pretty much on the mend though.

 

Also developed a brief, light fever early on.

[TT-SEA 4928]

I hope we finally get this drizzle debate settled.  

[Jesse 9511]

Weaverville, California has a pretty interesting climate.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weaverville,_California#Geography_and_climate

 

We almost went home that way, cutting across 299 to Redding, but decided to take 199 from Crescent City to Grants Pass.

[Phil 12465]

Chris said it was funky... I said its warm front drizzle and light rain until Wednesday. Its not too unusual or funky.

 

Not my favorite weather... but does "immunity" mean you don't even recognize its happening?

Drizzle > ridging. All wx-lovers agree with that.

[Phil 12465]

Considering how you said a couple days ago that we as humans build up immunity to things we are exposed to, I thought I would apply that same logic to warm front drizzle. You claim that to the north and east of Seattle the foothills have gotten a record setting amount of warm front drizzle the past 3 or so years. So by now, after nearly a thousand days of this, you should be building up an immunity to it.

They set a new drizzle record every year it seems.

[TT-SEA 4928]

Drizzle > ridging. All wx-lovers agree with that.

Focus on the macro level stuff that you do well and stop the pointless trolling.

[ShawniganLake 5539]

Focus on the macro level stuff that you do well and stop the pointless trolling.

Everyone loves drizzle, especially during the summer, Tim. Time to get onboard.

[TT-SEA 4928]

They set a new drizzle record every year it seems.

I don't even know what a drizzle record is... but we have had several periods of record rainfall.

 

That is not debatable... just stats.