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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Coronavirus scare is causing crowded supermarkets and Costcos where shelves are running out of hand sanitizer supplies. Great way to spread the coronavirus.

 

Also not sure how much strong offshore winds spread the virus.

Hand sanitizer doesn't help with airborne transfers.

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Hand sanitizer doesn't help with airborne transfers.

Viruses are rarely transferred through the air. Droplet to surface, hand to surface, hand to cake hole. Cake hole to humid heaven!

 

This is why the mask thing is so dumb.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Sweet arctic blast at hour 384.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Coronavirus scare is causing crowded supermarkets and Costcos where shelves are running out of hand sanitizer supplies. Great way to spread the coronavirus.

 

Also not sure how much strong offshore winds spread the virus.

 

Not sure either, but I think it's pretty clear expanding Hadley cells are the main culprit.

 

Along with low solar.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Since there isn’t a thread yet for a coronavirus long term forecast competition, here is mine below:

- things get worse over the next 2-3 weeks as we find out more people who had it and have it

- things peak 3-4 weeks out and then calm and clear up spring into summer

- next fall round 2 picks up from the summer dormancy and is worse than round 1 as we get into winter but still not panic worthy

(Note) This is based on past virus analogs a 2nd year virus is always worse than the 1st year but not substantially

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Since there isn’t a thread yet for a coronavirus long term forecast competition, here is mine below:

- things get worse over the next 2-3 weeks as we find out more people who had it and have it

- things peak 3-4 weeks out and then calm and clear up spring into summer

- next fall round 2 picks up from the summer dormancy and is worse than round 1 as we get into winter but still not panic worthy

(Note) This is based on past virus analogs a 2nd year virus is always worse than the 1st year but not substantially

Not matter how you slice it, next January is gonna be SICK.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Sweet arctic blast at hour 384.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

Give it up, man.

 

I’ve had ~ 55” of 384hr GFS snow this winter. ~ 3” of that has verified so far.

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If you look at some other places like Japan, etc, the plan is to keep schools closed long enough to significantly slow spread, so as to not overwhelm the health care system. 

 

A lot of people probably aren't aware of it, but not only does the seasonal flu kill people, it also puts a huge strain on our health care infrastructure. The biggest danger with this new virus probably isn't how lethal it may be, it's that if a lot more people get sick and go to the hospital, it could be overwhelming for the whole system.

 

But if you can at least slow the spread enough and buy time to develop better treatment and expand care facilities, you have a better chance of keeping that from happening.

 

I worry if this thing really takes hold in Bellingham, we are already stressing the capacity of the local hospital...A few years ago when the flu shot failed so badly and we had the really bad flu season, they had tons of patients being treated in the hallways.  They had to cancel all but the most critical surgeries because there was no bed space.

 

I would really love to see Providence or Swedish come up here and build another hospital, Peace Health sucks!

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I worry if this thing really takes hold in Bellingham, we are already stressing the capacity of the local hospital...A few years ago when the flu shot failed so badly and we had the really bad flu season, they had tons of patients being treated in the hallways. They had to cancel all but the most critical surgeries because there was no bed space.

 

I would really love to see Providence or Swedish come up here and build another hospital, Peace Health sucks!

Peace Health is planning on building some large clinics and hospital spaces starting this year up there.
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Peace Health is planning on building some large clinics and hospital spaces starting this year up there.

 

Interesting, they just posted for a Construction Program Manager...I guess they are adding a PM for the increased workload.  They have been talking about doing major changes to the whole cardiology service line (including testing, imaging, etc) layout for a few years now, pretty much gave up on it ever happening.   I guess they are finally going to get it done...

 

I'll have to do some digging around to see if there are any articles or information on the website to figure out how they are going to expand the "hospital spaces" up here, the hospital is already shoehorned in pretty tight and parking pretty much sucks all the time.

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Look like the GFS delivers a very late Arctic front at the end of tonight's run.  The models have been hinting all over the place at that potential for a while now.  Given the historic / near historic stuff we saw from late September through early November at the beginning of this season a noteworthy late season event doesn't seem too outlandish.

 

In other news the sun continues to go into an even deeper sleep with the x-ray flux values tumbling in recent days to levels not seen in months.  The combination of this minimum and the minimum of the previous cycle represents the lowest 2 cycle combo since the Dalton Minimum.  Just because the extreme low solar activity didn't cause the expected result this winter doesn't mean it won't going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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People have to remember that there are still a LOT of other sicknesses going around. If you've been sick in recent weeks, simple odds based on WAY more common viruses in wide circulation out there would indicate you probably have not had coronavirus.

 

Despite half the people on this forum thinking they may have had it.  :lol:

 

There have indeed.  I've been fighting something for a few days now.  In my case it could be the Coronavirus, because the school my wife works in is suspected to be contaminated and they are currently disinfecting it.  Pretty believable she could have brought it home with her.  Really hard to know for sure, but I know a lot of people are sick right now. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Update on the Cedar Lake station near my house... ended up just .02 short of the record for Jan/Feb rainfall:

 

1953 - 43.57

 

2020 - 43.55

 

1982 - 38.43

 

1899 - 38.18

 

1961 - 37.72

 

So close! Also interesting that there is a big difference between #3 and #2. Last year there was just 17.32 inches in Jan/Feb combined.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When the operational runs are teasing cold and snow in the long range... its best to look to the EPS for additional guidance.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean from the 00Z EPS:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When the operational runs are teasing cold and snow in the long range... its best to look to the EPS for additional guidance.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean from the 00Z EPS:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

Dovetails nicely with a March 1951 redux. Thank you for sharing!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Dovetails nicely with a March 1951 redux. Thank you for sharing!

 

It was already snowing and cold here at this point in March of 1951.   Even down in the valley out here there was half a foot of snow on 3/3/1951... and snow would fall on each of the next 8 days.   

 

Too bad we are not following that year... because one of the most persistently dry and beautiful spring and summer seasons in history in this area started soon after the snow stopped in March.     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No doubt the cold snap this weekend and early next week is looking pretty solid.  The models are certainly showing at least some lowland snow during that period.  I'm still quite intrigued by the prospects in the longer range.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No doubt the cold snap this weekend and early next week is looking pretty solid. The models are certainly showing at least some lowland snow during that period. I'm still quite intrigued by the prospects in the longer range. We'll just have to wait and see.

this is an unexpected post
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It's going to be May and Jim will still be talking about lowland snow potential.

 

No, he will stop posting again by then.

 

Historically it can snow in March here, though, which in and of itself is kind of upsetting. You are probably too young to remember March 2012 but it snowed and stuck here on the spring equinox, and PDX had a high in the 30s. But I wouldn't let that tummy ache get too bad since that *probably* wont happen this year.

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No, he will stop posting again by then.

 

Historically it can snow in March here, though, which in and of itself is kind of upsetting. You are probably too young to remember March 2012 but it snowed and stuck here on the spring equinox, and PDX had a high in the 30s. But I wouldn't let that tummy ache get too bad since that *probably* wont happen this year.

 

Seems like someone's triggered.  :lol:

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The weekend trough is not that interesting. Not much moisture after the cold air moves in. Maybe an inch or two of snow up here this weekend if we get lucky. I will enjoy it though if it happens. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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