June 2023 Observations & Discussions

[chescowxman]

Some spots like here in East Nantmeal did pick up a brief shower - we picked up 0.03" we take!! The smoke continues to be a problem across the area...we may see a brief clearing of smoke this morning before another plume builds across the county by later today. Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of the work week. Before a brief warmup to above normal by Sunday. Shower chances increase by Friday night and again on Sunday night.

 

Of interest, while I did record 1 day last summer that rounded to 90 degrees (89.7 on July 23rd) I have not recorded a day that exceeded 90 degrees in almost 2 years!! The last time being June 30, 2021 when we hit 91.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal Township. I think it is likely we see no 90 degree days here in Chester County for the rest of June.

Records for today: 97 (1899) / Low 42 (1949) / Rain 2.94" (2013)

[Stormy]

49 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

Some spots like here in East Nantmeal did pick up a brief shower - we picked up 0.03" we take!! The smoke continues to be a problem across the area...we may see a brief clearing of smoke this morning before another plume builds across the county by later today. Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of the work week. Before a brief warmup to above normal by Sunday. Shower chances increase by Friday night and again on Sunday night.

 

Of interest, while I did record 1 day last summer that rounded to 90 degrees (89.7 on July 23rd) I have not recorded a day that exceeded 90 degrees in almost 2 years!! The last time being June 30, 2021 when we hit 91.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal Township. I think it is likely we see no 90 degree days here in Chester County for the rest of June.

Records for today: 97 (1899) / Low 42 (1949) / Rain 2.94" (2013)

We've had quite a string of >90⁰ days recently except not the last 2 or so days as a cooler pattern sets in. 

[Stormy]

22 hours ago, westMJim said:

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

Backdoor cool fronts are not that unusual here with Lake Michigan enhancing them a few times. I've lost track of how many those fronts we've had in the past few months with the strange wx pattern we have. 

[chescowxman]

22 hours ago, westMJim said:

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

Here in the inland Northeast we get backdoor fronts frequently in the spring - thanks to the chilly ocean water temps. I have a place at the NJ shore and during the spring and summer months there are almost daily sea breeze fronts that push inland and drop temps often from the morning highs often in the mid to upper 80's at 10am to low to mid-70's in about 20 minutes around the noon hour.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just finished mowing the yard again, doing it about every 3-4 days with how much it is growing. Dew is right at 60, but feels much warmer as we really haven’t had any wind for days, except when thunderstorms roll through. Chances for rain and storms really increase Friday through Sunday. 

[Andie]

We’re at 88 at 1 pm.  
Air quality is noticeably worse. There’s a slight orange tinge in the sky.   

I have a bruising headache already   
Just awful air   I’m sure it could get worse. Not looking forward to this with no rain in the forecast.

Update:  Ar 4;30 we're hazy, Sky is not pale peachy anymore, but I've run into several people complaining of headaches.  So, either our weather/atmosphere went to pot, or we got a very small dose of Canada's dilemma  Dreadful day for air.

 

[NWbyNW]

The smoke from Canada is awful along the eastern seaboard.  It is oddly worse in New York City compared to Toronto.  Images below.

Smoke is clearly visible in this live cam view of Toronto.

 

But New York City look like burnt soup.  Hazardous area is being reported across the region.

 

New York City has an AQI of 405. Bridgeoport 242. Trenton 224. Jersey City 214. Philadelphia 164. Toronto has an AQI of 142. Ottawa 185. Montreal 19.  It is purely dependent on the direction of the winds.  As one can see on the map below. 

[hawkstwelve]

My son and I had planned our annual father/son camping trip for this weekend. Plan was to camp near Spearfish, SD and explore Devil's Tower National Monument and the Blackhills areas. Unfortunately, just had to call and reschedule the campsite due to 1-2 inches of rain being forecast for that area on Saturday, the main day we were planning on hiking all over. Now we're going in about two weeks.

On the one hand, I'm very happy to see many areas will be getting some much-needed rainfall. On the other hand, I find it awfully ironic that it's been extremely warm and dry for over a month and the one weekend we want to go camping it's cold and wet. C'est la vie, I guess.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Well out of no where. Unpredicted  .40 today!  Unfortunately  I wasnt here to see it! So up to .65 in June. Good for crops and garden.   Not enough for so many completely  burned up lawns.

[Bryan1117]

Well the back door cold front passage was another bust here, missed a decent thundershower by a few miles to my east… I was hoping for more widespread precipitation today however that didn’t happen. Back to the bone dry pattern, 0.00” of rain since last Friday. Pretty disappointing to say the least, really hoping the rain chances this weekend actually pan out this time - I am not optimistic.

[Stacsh]

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well out of no where. Unpredicted  .40 today!  Unfortunately  I wasnt here to see it! So up to .65 in June. Good for crops and garden.   Not enough for so many completely  burned up lawns.

I’m going on 20+ some days with no rain.  Can’t remember the last time it rained.   Never experienced this here in Michigan. 

[westMJim]

The days smoke and dryness continues. Yesterdays official H/L was 77/47 there was no rain fall and 83% of highly filtered sunshine. There were 3 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s. The overnight low here in MBY was 48 the official overnight low looks to have been 50. For today the average H/L is 78/56 the record high of 97 was set in 1933 the record low of 38 was set in 1949 and 1998. The record rain fall amount of 2.32” fell in 1974.

The next 2 days continue to look very dry with highs around average and lows below average. The is a good chance of some much-needed rain on Saturday night and Sunday into Monday. Saturday should be the warmest day for the next week. It will turn cool for Sunday until Tuesday.

I know a lot of people think this is a very boring weather pattern. But in fact we are in one of the longest dry spells in Grand Rapids history. And it it also one of the longest periods of smoky skies we have had in a long time. Remember this is just a weather pattern and it like all the weather patterns we have will change.

[westMJim]

7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I’m going on 20+ some days with no rain.  Can’t remember the last time it rained.   Never experienced this here in Michigan. 

Here in Grand Rapids we have only had 0.04" of rain in what will be 31 days after today. In 1979 for the whole month of September there was just a trace of rain and in that year there was a string of 34 days of just 0.06" of rain. This type of weather pattern has not happened very much in our area for sure.

[Clinton]

Backdoor cold front producing some showers here this morning.  Not a lot but I could squeeze a 1/4 of an inch out of it.  Better chance of some relief with widespread storms this weekend.

 

 

[Andie]

No Tx is at around 14” of rain for the year.  That puts us a bit behind.  We usually see 32” on avg. for the year  

But overall, we’re sitting pretty good in terms of rainfall and temps. as we leap into the hot months. 

[Hawkeye]

Last two runs of the Euro... it was looking increasingly good for widespread rain from a couple systems over the next ten days, but then it's suddenly all gone again.  

[chescowxman]

Maybe a little less smoke out there this AM. Unfortunately it looks to continue to a lesser degree through much of the weekend. Our chilly spring continues as this morning's lows ranged from the mid to upper 40's across Chester County. This is a good 10 degrees below normal lows for this time of year. Low's tonight should again be in the 40's. Rain chances increase a bit by tomorrow PM and become likely by Sunday night into Monday. Let's all hope we get some rain!

Records for today: High 96 (1914) / Low 40 (1980) / Rain 2.77' (1955)

[tStacsh]

51 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Here in Grand Rapids we have only had 0.04" of rain in what will be 31 days after today. In 1979 for the whole month of September there was just a trace of rain and in that year there was a string of 34 days of just 0.06" of rain. This type of weather pattern has not happened very much in our area for sure.

Thanks for the info. 

[tStacsh]

Current Drought Monitor.  For Michigan, up until April 6th, it was our wettest start to a year ever.  So this is more of a short-term Flash drought.  

[tStacsh]

 

Pretty Brown out there. 

[jaster220]

As of this am, DTX remained bullish on the potential. Hopefully the trend holds. We NEED this bigly

The aforementioned Canadian wave is expected to become cut off from
the northern stream as it drops into the western Great Lakes on
Sunday, deepening considerably through the early week as it slowly
spins across the region before becoming incorporated into the
subtropical jet. All signs currently point to a widespread
beneficial rain some time between late Sunday and Monday when the
resultant surface low swings northward from the Ohio Valley.
Latest 00z operational runs offer a respectable swath of QPF (1"+)
in the vicinity but vary considerably regarding its placement.
Showery unsettled conditions look to linger into Tuesday as the
upper low passes overhead.

[Andie]

NOAA published this today. No surprises   

“There is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Niño and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing by the winter, a statement from NOAA says.

Globally, "we'll see more drought and fire in Indonesia/Australia, more flood damage/extreme rainfall in eastern South America," Schmidt told CNBC.”

Also: A global look

https://phys.org/news/2023-06-el-nino-early-big-sloppy.html

[Clinton]

I got .40 inches from this mornings showers.  Not to bad, hope this is the start of some wetter days ahead.

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies for Week 2 look hot and dry for TX/OK and the S Plains...cooler/wetter for the Upper MW...MW and Plains near normal with precip.

 

 

Things change for Week 3-4....big trough sets up over eastern CONUS and its cooler/wetter for much of the Sub...

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 77/49 there was no rain fall. There was 87% of possible sunshine and 0 CDD’s and 2 HDD’s  In the last 32 days there has only been a total of 0.04” of rain fall. Today will be day 33.

For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1964 and 2020 the record low of 37 was set in 1969. The record rain fall of 1.77” fell in 1963.

We are still on tap for a good chance of rain starting on Saturday night into Tueday. It will also turn much cooler for Sunday to Tuesday with highs only in the 60’s Highs that cool in mid June are not unheard of but not all that common either.

[Clinton]

A sunny and warm day is on tap here today and the best chance in a long time for some widespread rainfall is still on track for tomorrow.

[Clinton]

This mornings GFS showing some hope for rain both short and long term for the Lakes region.  Also showing a tropical system targeting the Texas/Louisiana boarder which is one of the LRC hot spots this summer in the long range.

[Clinton]

@Andie and @Iceresistance severe weather possible for you guys tomorrow.

[Tom]

41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS showing some hope for rain both short and long term for the Lakes region.  Also showing a tropical system targeting the Texas/Louisiana boarder which is one of the LRC hot spots this summer in the long range.

The pattern change many have been yearning for!  Hope it ain't to late for the corn and soybean farmers in the MW.

[CentralNebWeather]

Had a surprise storm pop up around 7:30 am and drop 0.20” here in a short time. Now it is very soupy with a temp of 68 and a 66 dew along with fog. Looks like storm chances ramp up tonight and tomorrow with cooler and drier air on Sunday.  Appears storm chances come back next week again as @Clintonshared with the precipitation maps. 

[Thunder98]

80F dew points in Brownsville, TX!

 

 

[Jayhawker85]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

A sunny and warm day is on tap here today and the best chance in a long time for some widespread rainfall is still on track for tomorrow.

As much as i know we need the rain i hope it comes early in the morning or late in the evening. I got outdoor money to make during midday lol 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern change many have been yearning for!  Hope it ain't to late for the corn and soybean farmers in the MW.

It will help the beans forsure and the corn also if the pattern gets and stays wet.

[Clinton]

31 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

As much as i know we need the rain i hope it comes early in the morning or late in the evening. I got outdoor money to make during midday lol 

I'm in the same boat but I'll take rain anytime at this point.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just talked to my father in law, he lives on the west side of town and had no rain this morning. Their farm is east of town, and it had 0.50”. Odd precipitation patterns continue. 

[hawkstwelve]

A nice little surprise over-performer here this morning. Hopefully a good sign of times changing!

 

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Andie and @Iceresistance severe weather possible for you guys tomorrow.

I am aware, it looks like to be an overnight event for me

[Andie]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Andie and @Iceresistance severe weather possible for you guys tomorrow.

Likely our farewell performance till Autumn  

[Hawkeye]

I'm not liking the latest trend on the models.  Instead of looking better after mid month, op models are reverting back to blocky, dry garbage.

[Bryan1117]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

A nice little surprise over-performer here this morning. Hopefully a good sign of times changing!

 

This complex of showers and thunderstorms held together just long enough to die out exactly one county to my north... once again nothing but a few sprinkles today in my backyard and back to no measurable precip in a full week, just lovely after things were finally looking up a bit. Kudos to those who are getting the moisture, however plenty more frustration to the others like myself who keep missing out.   

Models are looking good for widespread decent rains over the weekend in Eastern Nebraska, however we have been duped too many times lately to trust anything, well until it's actually raining.  

[CentralNebWeather]

18 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

This complex of showers and thunderstorms held together just long enough to die out exactly one county to my north... once again nothing but a few sprinkles today in my backyard and back to no measurable precip in a full week, just lovely after things were finally looking up a bit. Kudos to those who are getting the moisture, however plenty more frustration to the others like myself who keep missing out.   

Models are looking good for widespread decent rains over the weekend in Eastern Nebraska, however we have been duped too many times lately to trust anything, well until it's actually raining.  

I actually thought of you as I saw the radar die out. Been there too many times to count over the years. Hopefully the multiple storms developing now can produce. 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I actually thought of you as I saw the radar die out. Been there too many times to count over the years. Hopefully the multiple storms developing now can produce. 

It looks like everything out west is diving straight south or dying out as it enters the Omaha metro. I have a feeling this weekend's widespread rains will mostly miss us again here in East Central Nebraska (I would love to be wrong)... ugh! 

[CentralNebWeather]

32 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

It looks like everything out west is diving straight south or dying out as it enters the Omaha metro. I have a feeling this weekend's widespread rains will mostly miss us again here in East Central Nebraska (I would love to be wrong)... ugh! 

Just had a buddy text me that our dome was in effect. Storm coming in from the west just jumped over Holdrege and re-formed just to our east. I told him I was laughing about it as I watched it occur. NWS basically said they will pulse up then die off. I guess we can’t ever assume the storms will hold together. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 6/8/2023 at 1:45 PM, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies for Week 2 look hot and dry for TX/OK and the S Plains...cooler/wetter for the Upper MW...MW and Plains near normal with precip.

 

 

Things change for Week 3-4....big trough sets up over eastern CONUS and its cooler/wetter for much of the Sub...

 

 

 

 

Little two week blast of heat before June closes. Will feel pretty summerlike after all these storms pass. 

By the drought map posted in another post above, the rain is right on time. Short-term surface drought conditions are in effect.

[Andie]

40% chance of severe storms tomorrow. 
High of 96. Muggy.   
We have a chance of golf ball size hail and high winds.  Ahh, Spring. 

[Stormy]

What is wrong with the Ukie Model? That thing is clueless, earlier showing a weird nw/se heavy band of rain right over the center of Iowa unlike any other model, then recently it looked more similar to others though strangely heavy here, now it's a total wiff and south! And many other models aren't too impressive either. I'ld like to get at least a half inch, (which isn't nearly enough) but I'm having a bad feeling about this, and then I'll probably have to wait at least another week if this system underperforms. 

[Stormy]

On 6/8/2023 at 10:02 AM, tStacsh said:

 

Pretty Brown out there. 

That should change dramatically before long as crops like corn and beans grow enough to cover the soil or close the rows. 

[westMJim]

At Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 77/50 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 98% of the time. There were no CDD’s and 1 HDD’s.  For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1933 and 1999 the record low of 36 was set in 1980. The record rain fall of 1.37” fell in 1979.

It has been extremely dry in much of Michigan and at Grand Rapids there has only been 0.04” of rain fall since May 8th. And there has only been 0.86” since May 1st and going back to April 22nd just 1.15” of rain has fallen. During that time there has just been one thunderstorm. Most of lower Michigan is mow is the short term dry category.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

In looking at some past drought maps there seems to be a lag in the time from when a area enters a drought and also when an area leaves a drought. We will see how this plays out in the days ahead

[Stormy]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern change many have been yearning for!  Hope it ain't to late for the corn and soybean farmers in the MW.

Crop hybrids these days are much improved and more drought resistant than they used to be, being bred for that and other things. Crops here still look good, but really need rain. A few organic farmers are still waiting to plant beans till it rains as it doesn't do any good to plant in dry soil where some might sprout, but most wouldn't. July 4 is the cut-off date for planting beans around here, so there's still some time. With moisture they'll pop up in short order with the warmer soil temps this time of the year! Organic farmers usually wait a little longer to plant as organic seeds aren't treated for cool soils etc, and by working the soil later they can kill a crop of weeds before planting, etc. 

Edited June 10 by Stormy

[Clinton]

First round of rain is weakening but right at my door step, looks like a nice soggy day.  Better chance of heavier storms this evening through tomorrow morning.  Hope these amounts EAX is predicting verify.