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June 2023 Observations & Discussions


westMJim

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Good Day all!  Yesterday, PHX torched and hit a season high of 107F.  Locally, it is a cool 67F this morning and quite refreshing.  I smelled the wild fires in the air that are burning near the HWY 87 Beeline not far from my place.  In the mornings, while winds are calm, you can see the smoke layer on the camera shots across the valley acting like a "bowl", pooling all the smoke.  Just to let you know, the wild fire season isn't as bad as years past.  They are manageable and the continued Monsoon rains are really helping the situation.

Is there a pattern change looming?  Finally, a storm system will traverse out of the 4 Corners/Rockies and towards the GL's/OHV region by this weekend.  The models are showing what was a very common theme over the course of the last cold season as a weak SLP will form out in the Sb Plains and track East bringing a ribbon of much needed moisture to the Eastern Sub.  Some signs of a summer version OHV cutter??

 

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There is a chance of rain/storms as the backdoor cold front moves through later today, but it looks pretty scattered.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good Day all!  Yesterday, PHX torched and hit a season high of 107F.  Locally, it is a cool 67F this morning and quite refreshing.  I smelled the wild fires in the air that are burning near the HWY 87 Beeline not far from my place.  In the mornings, while winds are calm, you can see the smoke layer on the camera shots across the valley acting like a "bowl", pooling all the smoke.  Just to let you know, the wild fire season isn't as bad as years past.  They are manageable and the continued Monsoon rains are really helping the situation.

Is there a pattern change looming?  Finally, a storm system will traverse out of the 4 Corners/Rockies and towards the GL's/OHV region by this weekend.  The models are showing what was a very common theme over the course of the last cold season as a weak SLP will form out in the Sb Plains and track East bringing a ribbon of much needed moisture to the Eastern Sub.  Some signs of a summer version OHV cutter??

 

111.gif

Some widespread rainfall would be nice, looks like there is a chance of that happening near mby this weekend. 

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Just now, Clinton said:

Some widespread rainfall would be nice, looks like there is a chance of that happening near mby this weekend. 

Hope this system can somehow "share the wealth" as we would say in the Winter months.. 

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a chance of rain/storms as the backdoor cold front moves through later today, but it looks pretty scattered.

Backdoor front will be in my area tomorrow.  Timing could be good for some scattered strong storms, we often get some strong winds with this type of setup. 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Backdoor front will be in my area tomorrow.  Timing could be good for some scattered strong storms, we often get some strong winds with this type of setup. 

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

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52 minutes ago, westMJim said:

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

Not often maybe once or twice a year in the summer. We had one last week and it didn't do much.

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There is so much smoke high in the air you can not tell if it is cloudy or not. The sun is shining thru so it should be smoke. Any way I just took a step outside and with low DP and the wind we do have it feel rather cool out there. At the current time there is filtered sun and 77 here in MBY. On the east side of the state there are a lot of low 60’s and in the up near Lake Superior 50’s are the rule.

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6 hours ago, westMJim said:

There is so much smoke high in the air you can not tell if it is cloudy or not. The sun is shining thru so it should be smoke. Any way I just took a step outside and with low DP and the wind we do have it feel rather cool out there. At the current time there is filtered sun and 77 here in MBY. On the east side of the state there are a lot of low 60’s and in the up near Lake Superior 50’s are the rule.

The Canadian reports are humbling. In the Earth forum there are a couple links you might find interesting.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Good Day all!  Yesterday, PHX torched and hit a season high of 107F.  Locally, it is a cool 67F this morning and quite refreshing.  I smelled the wild fires in the air that are burning near the HWY 87 Beeline not far from my place.  In the mornings, while winds are calm, you can see the smoke layer on the camera shots across the valley acting like a "bowl", pooling all the smoke.  Just to let you know, the wild fire season isn't as bad as years past.  They are manageable and the continued Monsoon rains are really helping the situation.

Is there a pattern change looming?  Finally, a storm system will traverse out of the 4 Corners/Rockies and towards the GL's/OHV region by this weekend.  The models are showing what was a very common theme over the course of the last cold season as a weak SLP will form out in the Sb Plains and track East bringing a ribbon of much needed moisture to the Eastern Sub.  Some signs of a summer version OHV cutter??

 

111.gif

I'm wondering if it really makes sense that all models are totally reversing this pattern in the 10-15 day ranges, putting a huge ridge in its place across the heartland and up through the lakes. I don't know if I can agree with them just yet. We'll see.

I'm truly glad to see precipitation in any form on the drought regions. 

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12 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a chance of rain/storms as the backdoor cold front moves through later today, but it looks pretty scattered.

Well, it was a big dud for Cedar Rapids.  The pavement got wet.  Next chance is this weekend.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There was once again a lot of high-level smoke over the area yesterday. The official H/L was 78/53 there was no rain fall. In the last 29 days Grand Rapids has only had 0.04” of rain fall. There was a reported 45% of filtered sunshine yesterday. There was 0 HDD’s and 1 CDD’s

The overnight low here in MBY and the official overnight low so far has been 48 this is the coldest low in 10 days. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 94 was set in 1911 and the record low of 38 was set in 1958 the record rain fall amount of 1.87” fell in 1939.

The rest of this week looks to be dry until Saturday when there is a chance of some rain. There is at least a 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Temperatures look to be around average until Sunday and then fall to below average for the start of next week along with several chances of some much-needed rain.

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Currently 69* and on our way to 91.  
Humid morning at 83% …eww.

Very warm weekend ahead - 95*. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

There was once again a lot of high-level smoke over the area yesterday. The official H/L was 78/53 there was no rain fall. In the last 29 days Grand Rapids has only had 0.04” of rain fall. There was a reported 45% of filtered sunshine yesterday. There was 0 HDD’s and 1 CDD’s

The overnight low here in MBY and the official overnight low so far has been 48 this is the coldest low in 10 days. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 94 was set in 1911 and the record low of 38 was set in 1958 the record rain fall amount of 1.87” fell in 1939.

The rest of this week looks to be dry until Saturday when there is a chance of some rain. There is at least a 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Temperatures look to be around average until Sunday and then fall to below average for the start of next week along with several chances of some much-needed rain.

I've never looked forward to 60's and rain in June before, but this will be a first.  

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Some spots like here in East Nantmeal did pick up a brief shower - we picked up 0.03" we take!! The smoke continues to be a problem across the area...we may see a brief clearing of smoke this morning before another plume builds across the county by later today. Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of the work week. Before a brief warmup to above normal by Sunday. Shower chances increase by Friday night and again on Sunday night.
 
Of interest, while I did record 1 day last summer that rounded to 90 degrees (89.7 on July 23rd) I have not recorded a day that exceeded 90 degrees in almost 2 years!! The last time being June 30, 2021 when we hit 91.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal Township. I think it is likely we see no 90 degree days here in Chester County for the rest of June.
Records for today: 97 (1899) / Low 42 (1949) / Rain 2.94" (2013)
image.png.2f54c2c92672ce76dd4ce2dcf0bf852a.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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49 minutes ago, chescowxman said:
Some spots like here in East Nantmeal did pick up a brief shower - we picked up 0.03" we take!! The smoke continues to be a problem across the area...we may see a brief clearing of smoke this morning before another plume builds across the county by later today. Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of the work week. Before a brief warmup to above normal by Sunday. Shower chances increase by Friday night and again on Sunday night.
 
Of interest, while I did record 1 day last summer that rounded to 90 degrees (89.7 on July 23rd) I have not recorded a day that exceeded 90 degrees in almost 2 years!! The last time being June 30, 2021 when we hit 91.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal Township. I think it is likely we see no 90 degree days here in Chester County for the rest of June.
Records for today: 97 (1899) / Low 42 (1949) / Rain 2.94" (2013)
image.png.2f54c2c92672ce76dd4ce2dcf0bf852a.png

We've had quite a string of >90⁰ days recently except not the last 2 or so days as a cooler pattern sets in. 

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22 hours ago, westMJim said:

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

Backdoor cool fronts are not that unusual here with Lake Michigan enhancing them a few times. I've lost track of how many those fronts we've had in the past few months with the strange wx pattern we have. 

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22 hours ago, westMJim said:

How often do you get a backdoor cold front? We get them from time to time here but not really that often. We have had much more NE winds so far this year than average. On the east side of Michigan there is a lake breeze that will bring a NE wind but not so much on the west side of the state.

Here in the inland Northeast we get backdoor fronts frequently in the spring - thanks to the chilly ocean water temps. I have a place at the NJ shore and during the spring and summer months there are almost daily sea breeze fronts that push inland and drop temps often from the morning highs often in the mid to upper 80's at 10am to low to mid-70's in about 20 minutes around the noon hour.

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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We’re at 88 at 1 pm.  
Air quality is noticeably worse. There’s a slight orange tinge in the sky.   

I have a bruising headache already   
Just awful air   I’m sure it could get worse. Not looking forward to this with no rain in the forecast.

Update:  Ar 4;30 we're hazy, Sky is not pale peachy anymore, but I've run into several people complaining of headaches.  So, either our weather/atmosphere went to pot, or we got a very small dose of Canada's dilemma  Dreadful day for air.

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The smoke from Canada is awful along the eastern seaboard.  It is oddly worse in New York City compared to Toronto.  Images below.

Smoke is clearly visible in this live cam view of Toronto.

ScreenShot2023-06-07at12_08_13PM.thumb.png.30d5b0d7e89526180936eef7d8d07a52.png

 

But New York City look like burnt soup.  Hazardous area is being reported across the region.

ScreenShot2023-06-07at12_08_35PM.thumb.png.4fa58c6d274630ed3c8874f8ef464874.pngScreenShot2023-06-07at12_08_28PM.thumb.png.f8ee42824ccfb8ed5841c416f2a3ed8d.png

 

New York City has an AQI of 405. Bridgeoport 242. Trenton 224. Jersey City 214. Philadelphia 164. Toronto has an AQI of 142. Ottawa 185. Montreal 19.  It is purely dependent on the direction of the winds.  As one can see on the map below. 

ScreenShot2023-06-07at12_14_23PM.thumb.png.9e347dc623cf7d828104cf635d2cd56b.png

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My son and I had planned our annual father/son camping trip for this weekend. Plan was to camp near Spearfish, SD and explore Devil's Tower National Monument and the Blackhills areas. Unfortunately, just had to call and reschedule the campsite due to 1-2 inches of rain being forecast for that area on Saturday, the main day we were planning on hiking all over. Now we're going in about two weeks.

On the one hand, I'm very happy to see many areas will be getting some much-needed rainfall. On the other hand, I find it awfully ironic that it's been extremely warm and dry for over a month and the one weekend we want to go camping it's cold and wet. C'est la vie, I guess.

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Well the back door cold front passage was another bust here, missed a decent thundershower by a few miles to my east… I was hoping for more widespread precipitation today however that didn’t happen. Back to the bone dry pattern, 0.00” of rain since last Friday. Pretty disappointing to say the least, really hoping the rain chances this weekend actually pan out this time - I am not optimistic.

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7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well out of no where. Unpredicted  .40 today!  Unfortunately  I wasnt here to see it! So up to .65 in June. Good for crops and garden.   Not enough for so many completely  burned up lawns.

I’m going on 20+ some days with no rain.  Can’t remember the last time it rained.   Never experienced this here in Michigan. 

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The days smoke and dryness continues. Yesterdays official H/L was 77/47 there was no rain fall and 83% of highly filtered sunshine. There were 3 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s. The overnight low here in MBY was 48 the official overnight low looks to have been 50. For today the average H/L is 78/56 the record high of 97 was set in 1933 the record low of 38 was set in 1949 and 1998. The record rain fall amount of 2.32” fell in 1974.

The next 2 days continue to look very dry with highs around average and lows below average. The is a good chance of some much-needed rain on Saturday night and Sunday into Monday. Saturday should be the warmest day for the next week. It will turn cool for Sunday until Tuesday.

I know a lot of people think this is a very boring weather pattern. But in fact we are in one of the longest dry spells in Grand Rapids history. And it it also one of the longest periods of smoky skies we have had in a long time. Remember this is just a weather pattern and it like all the weather patterns we have will change.

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7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I’m going on 20+ some days with no rain.  Can’t remember the last time it rained.   Never experienced this here in Michigan. 

Here in Grand Rapids we have only had 0.04" of rain in what will be 31 days after today. In 1979 for the whole month of September there was just a trace of rain and in that year there was a string of 34 days of just 0.06" of rain. This type of weather pattern has not happened very much in our area for sure.

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No Tx is at around 14” of rain for the year.  That puts us a bit behind.  We usually see 32” on avg. for the year  

But overall, we’re sitting pretty good in terms of rainfall and temps. as we leap into the hot months. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Last two runs of the Euro... it was looking increasingly good for widespread rain from a couple systems over the next ten days, but then it's suddenly all gone again.  🤬🤬🤬

trend-ecmwf_full-2023060800-f228.qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.thumb.gif.d4cbdbe0f7004eba6aefd033ba69e290.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Maybe a little less smoke out there this AM. Unfortunately it looks to continue to a lesser degree through much of the weekend. Our chilly spring continues as this morning's lows ranged from the mid to upper 40's across Chester County. This is a good 10 degrees below normal lows for this time of year. Low's tonight should again be in the 40's. Rain chances increase a bit by tomorrow PM and become likely by Sunday night into Monday. Let's all hope we get some rain!
Records for today: High 96 (1914) / Low 40 (1980) / Rain 2.77' (1955)
image.png.e12a0fa624503f9417fb9c99798bfb8b.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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51 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Here in Grand Rapids we have only had 0.04" of rain in what will be 31 days after today. In 1979 for the whole month of September there was just a trace of rain and in that year there was a string of 34 days of just 0.06" of rain. This type of weather pattern has not happened very much in our area for sure.

Thanks for the info. 

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