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Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023


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California is almost entirely out of the drought now. 😱 And a large portion of the intermountain west continues to run positive soil moisture departures.

IMG_3859.jpegIMG_3864.gif

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CPC also projects some improvement in condition over the Plains and MT/WY during the month of June. But much of the NE/Midwest could see drought develop. Phase 7/8/1 is not a good pattern for rainfall out this way in spring/early summer.

IMG_3860.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, Phil said:

California is almost entirely out of the drought now. 😱 And a large portion of the intermountain west continues to run positive soil moisture departures.

IMG_3859.jpegIMG_3864.gif

I assume this is a good thing for us in the PNW during summer? Having a moist SW probably mutes the 4CH pushing into our region. 

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Lows of 41,39,41 to start June at EUG. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

100% pure…Just like the 1990’s sky! 

Was in Coquille last night for the Gay 90s festival. 

49750E09-DFC9-4C8E-AC63-963CA801FF19.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Gonna be a top 5 warm June. If we can avoid temps over 110 we should avoid warmest of all time. Big if. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a top 5 warm June. If we can avoid temps over 110 we should avoid warmest of all time. Big if. 

I don’t think there will be any 100s in June. In fact I’ll wager there will be no 90s after 6/15 on the west side.

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In the LC valley. Currently about 85 or 86F. Enjoying the cool Snake River breeze.

IMG_20230603_142612213.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Beautiful weekend!  The Pacific Northwest is showcasing its best assets today at the NASCAR Xfinity race in Portland.  Mount Hood in full view! First race here it poured down rain, but this time it's beautiful.  All the drivers, broadcast group, have been singing the praises of how beautiful the region is!  Absolutely love to see that!  Fantastic racing too! 

Screen Shot 2023-06-03 at 3.11.31 PM.png

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GFS continues to be tolerable. A dream. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS continues to be tolerable. A dream. 

Today's mid 70s and crystal blue sky is absolutely intolerable.     Could not be more miserable.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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80 degrees back home and perfect weather. Our cherry tree is liking it. Clear skies. Hoping next April in Texas will be this nice.

IMG_20230603_174018837.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Really pretty day. 79/45 spread. Cool start and blue skies.

Looks like a bit of a cool down tomorrow, then warmer next week through midweek. Both the GFS and Euro are converging on a cooldown after that. GFS/GEFS wants to keep us cool beyond that, while the Euro wants to warm us back up a little, although the 12z EPS trended a little better in the long range today.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Wish there was a place to get some good katsu chicken around here.

Or catfish

Or hushpuppies

Or fried crawfish

Or teriyaki chicken where they actually have teriyaki sauce on the chicken

Or a proper chicken fried steak without destroying it with horrible sausage gravy

Or independent places that don’t cost a lot

Or a proper gas grill instead of my Always Sunny in Philadelphia-style electric one…

Or an ability to procure and make this stuff without a shaky hand that ruins the recipe even though it usually still tastes like shitt.

Been an oof kinda day. Grateful that it’s at least been beautiful outside.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Is that when the mega-ridge leaves the PNW and Canada?

Yes, one last hurrah coming up then it takes a break for awhile.

Worth noting Dr. Roundy’s MJO-analog derived composite projects another W-Canada/PNW heatwave during the second week of July, but once again, it doesn’t arise via the 4CH, so it is a quick hitter. In fact there is a ULL in the SW US at that time.

Will have to see if this is correct, though.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

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On 6/1/2023 at 7:37 AM, Deweydog said:

It’s my birthday month. Gift’s accepted. Go Knights.

I hear June is a good month for a birthday.  I picked up my birthday/father's day gift down by Lake Sammamish this morning.

 

I could feel the heat radiating off the lake, it was like bath water.  After I picked up the boat, I thought about getting out on the lake to do my own water temperature survey, maybe go to that sandbar and see if I could find @TT-SEA but then I realized I forgot my life jacket.  Oh well, perhaps another time.

IMG_5922.jpg

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On 6/1/2023 at 2:26 PM, Phil said:

Judah is on board! Related to the final warming perhaps?

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1664308075145117697?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Does this mean its gonna snow?

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12 hours ago, MossMan said:

Deep blue skies. Low of 43. 

IMG_5959.jpeg

Interesting, as I was driving back from Lake Sammamish and got to the Skagit Valley around noon the sky seemed to be pretty hazy.  I was trying to figure out if it was smoke or just a marine haze....

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You would think that wicked trough in the NE would be really cold and wet like it would be here.   But it actually results in weather some people on here would call hot.   No wonder Phil loves summer troughs so much.   😀

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-6182400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f_max6-6182400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You would think that wicked trough in the NE would be really cold and wet like it would be here.   But it actually results in weather some people on here would call hot.   No wonder Phil loves summer troughs so much.   😀

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-6182400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f_max6-6182400.png

Yeah sadly it takes a trough like that just to keep us out of the 90s these days. 😒 And temperature averages in early June are analogous to those of mid-September.

Come July/August such troughs often increase afternoon highs by drying the boundary layer and reducing cloud cover/convection, unless it’s a major trough. But either way, it still ends up more comfortable due to lower dew points, and cooling is more efficient at night. Plus they’re usually preceded by thunderstorms. Win-win.

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Now imagine what a true death ridge like y’all have been seeing in recent years would do here. Cringe.

Thankfully it’s been quite awhile since we’ve had one, but it’s probably only a matter of time. They tend to happen near solar maximum with descending westerly shear/+QBO, especially following a a significant El Niño.

Which is very likely what we’ll have next year. 🙃 I’ve actually had 2024 on my death ridge radar for awhile now. But in the meantime I will enjoy this El Niño-onset summer (which are usually nice), then will worry about reverse-psyching the heat back to Tim’s house next year.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Now imagine what a true death ridge like y’all have been seeing in recent years would do here. Cringe.

Thankfully it’s been quite awhile since we’ve had one, but it’s probably only a matter of time. They tend to happen near solar maximum with descending westerly shear/+QBO, especially following a a significant El Niño.

Which is very likely what we’ll have next year. 🙃 I’ve actually had 2024 on my death ridge radar for awhile now. But in the meantime I will enjoy this El Niño-onset summer (which are usually nice), then will worry about reverse-psyching the heat back to Tim’s house next year.

Not sure I would call what have had "death ridging".    That has been focused more over the Midwest lately.

Over the last 15 days... SEA is at just +0.4 while Minneapolis has been +8.7 over the same period.  

Side note... back in late April you predicted that the ridging would be focused over the middle of the country by the second of half of May.    You have been nailing it for the last few months... no joke.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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