Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some very very broad similarities. Overall this March was much colder than March 2011 and obviously April was warmer this year. 2018 was coming off a multi-year Nina and saw a May that was about as dry as it gets around here. 

I actually view 2018 as an anti-log to 2023.

Inverted North/South PMM, AMO, and QBO/shear stress. All indicative of a very different circulatory base state.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we only hit 84 here in Vegas today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Lordy Gordy Andrews 40

Not quite, still have over a year to go. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I actually view 2018 as an anti-log to 2023.

Inverted North/South PMM, AMO, and QBO/shear stress. All indicative of a very different circulatory base state.

Overall there is much more warm water across the globe this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Once again when comparing years I have to add the caveat that I am talking about observed weather in our region. Not Indian Ocean SST's. I've only mentioned this about 500 times, but I guess it needs to be repeated. PHIL. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once again when comparing years I have to add the caveat that I am talking about observed weather in our region. Not Indian Ocean SST's. I've only mentioned this about 500 times, but I guess it needs to be repeated. PHIL. 

I mentioned the same thing... and yet you still took offense. 

Are you saying our tangible weather from the mid-May through mid-June period this year has absolutely no similarity to the same period in 2015?   None??   Good Lordy almighty!   How dare I throw that year around.   Its an anti-log year!    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I mentioned the same thing... and yet you still took offense. 

Are you saying our tangible weather from the mid-May through mid-June period this year has absolutely no similarity to the same period in 2015?   None??   Good Lordy almighty!   How dare I throw that year around.   Its an anti-log year!    

I don't remember much about 2015 other than it was a really hot summer, just like most of the past 10 or so. I remember the late June/early July period. Not much else beyond that. My detailed memories are more in regards to cold events, the warm stuff just all kind of blends together now that it's 99.9% of our days. 

[TT-SEA]

In terms of being completely opposite... the mid-May through mid-June period in 2010 and 2022 was on the other end of the spectrum.    In those years there was rain on almost every day in that period in my area.   This year basically nothing.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember much about 2015 other than it was a really hot summer, just like most of the past 10 or so. I remember the late June/early July period. Not much else beyond that. My detailed memories are more in regards to cold events, the warm stuff just all kind of blends together now that it's 99.9% of our days. 

2009 and 2015 were both crazy dry and endlessly sunny during the second half of May and first half of June.    Those years stand out for me for late spring and early summer because that is pretty unusual here.

[Phishy Wx]

94 in da 'Kane today

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

2009 and 2015 were both crazy dry and endlessly sunny during the second half of May and first half of June.    Those years stand out for me for late spring and early summer because that is pretty unusual here.

If we look at the late winter/spring/early summer progression I think 2009 and 2018 are way better matches. 2015 was pretty much a continuous blowtorch from start to finish until mid-November. 

 

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of being completely opposite... the mid-May through mid-June period in 2010 and 2022 was on the other end of the spectrum.    In those years there was rain on almost every day in that period in my area.   This year basically nothing.  

No disagreement here. 

[MWG]

Nice quick storm passing through here. My dog doesn’t usually get scared about thunder but we were outside and he quickly went inside the house. We went to go cover the windows of our cars and even though they weren’t that big they hurt because how fast it was coming down. 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MWG said:

Nice quick storm passing through here. My dog doesn’t usually get scared about thunder but we were outside and he quickly went inside the house. We went to go cover the windows of our cars and even though they weren’t that big they hurt because how fast it was coming down. 

IMG_4363.mov 14.68 MB · 0 downloads  

 

 

 

Score! Hope you have been well. 

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once again when comparing years I have to add the caveat that I am talking about observed weather in our region. Not Indian Ocean SST's. I've only mentioned this about 500 times, but I guess it needs to be repeated. PHIL. 

To be fair I didn’t mention Indian Ocean SSTs.  

[MWG]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score! Hope you have been well. 

I have been and hope you too as well! Just been busy with work but hopefully it will calm down during summer and I can post more frequently.

[Cascadia_Wx]

82/58 day here. Well below 90 which was a nice surprise. Had some high clouds at times and a cooler breeze in the afternoon. Higher DPs as well.

[MWG]

Can't link the tweet for some reason but nice picture from the storm.

[MossMan]

84/52 on the day. Currently 58. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember much about 2015 other than it was a really hot summer, just like most of the past 10 or so. I remember the late June/early July period. Not much else beyond that. My detailed memories are more in regards to cold events, the warm stuff just all kind of blends together now that it's 99.9% of our days. 

This is well said Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, MWG said:

Can't link the tweet for some reason but nice picture from the storm.

Beautiful country. I’ll be in Ashland next month and I can’t wait. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The mini cool down late this week is looking pretty washed out in the 00z GFS. Doesn’t show PDX with a single sub-80 day tomorrow through Saturday. Probably a little overdone.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59F and some thin clouds. Really pleasant day.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember much about 2015 other than it was a really hot summer, just like most of the past 10 or so. I remember the late June/early July period. Not much else beyond that. My detailed memories are more in regards to cold events, the warm stuff just all kind of blends together now that it's 99.9% of our days. 

I just looked through November - April at SEA... about 75% of the days were colder than normal.    Your math is off by a significant margin.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF actually shows a decent soaking for King County on Friday.   Much farther south than previous runs.

[ShawniganLake]

Warm afternoon here. Topped out at 88F. 

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with an 86/50 spread today. Currently 63.2.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Thoroughly demoralizing 00z Euro run this evening.

[Cloud]

Look like the Euro is showing some nice rainfall totals for Friday at SEA. This would end the dry streak dating back to May 22. 

[ShawniganLake]

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Cloud said:

Look like the Euro is showing some nice rainfall totals for Friday at SEA. This would end the dry streak dating back to May 22. 

06Z ECMWF was even farther south with the rain tomorrow... also shows a high in the low 60s in Seattle.

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF was even farther south with the rain tomorrow... also shows a high in the low 60s in Seattle.

That would be awesome, but we need a few of these systems to really help out. It’s incredibly dry right now though so anything helps. 

[Phil]

El Niño officially declared  

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

Its technically showing up in the models... devil is in the details of course in terms of how much rain it means for us.  

[LowerGarfield]

19 hours ago, Phil said:

“East coast media bias” definitely evident though.

Barely a mention from some of these outlets while the West has been dealing with this crud for a decade, and now it’s front page news as if it’s something new.  

Maybe the Eastern states will have to rake their forests and see how hard it is.

As for my location currently it is overcast and hoping we get some measurable precipitation today (preferably after noon because my son's school has field day outside and spouse is helping). But we need the rain. Parts of Idaho and NE WA look to have a decent amount but I'd love some in my SE corner.

[Blizzard777]

Something is ablaze in Tacoma ???

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF was even farther south with the rain tomorrow... also shows a high in the low 60s in Seattle.

Not bad. Central Vancouver island needs some rain. There is a 300 acre fire burning just a couple miles from the Iconic Cathedral grove near Port Alberni. 

[LowerGarfield]

Had about .03 this morning when I took my son to school. But really hoping for more. Just enough to wet the grass but ground is still dry here. As MWG said, it feels muggy but cooler.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like this morning's marine layer knocked grass pollen all the way down to 309.

Blessings from the Lord above!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF actually shows a decent soaking for King County on Friday.   Much farther south than previous runs.

Holy ! Rain!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Long lost ML has returned to KPDX this morning.