Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not bad. Central Vancouver island needs some rain. There is a 300 acre fire burning just a couple miles from the Iconic Cathedral grove near Port Alberni. 

And the air quality has deteriorated correspondingly.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And the air quality has deteriorated correspondingly.

Air quality has been fine here. But there is also a large fire up near Harrison lake that is feeding smoke into the Fraser Valley. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Air quality has been fine here. But there is also a large fire up near Harrison lake that is feeding smoke into the Fraser Valley. 

It’s hazy here but nowhere near as bad as peak smoke season. But also no longer clean and clear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice GFS run, the ship has obviously sailed on the rainy season, but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to torch. Down in the fine city of ALBANY this morning and there is still pretty solid overcast. 

[MossMan]

HCS (with possibly a little high based smoke as well) here in Wenatchee! Currently 81 degrees. 

[Phil]

Dry soil moisture anomalies starting to creep south into WA. For awhile I’ve expected the northern zones (WA/BC) would run the warmest/driest anomalies this summer, but with the El Niño firmly establishing (and early on), there is a good chance this turns into a bonafide drought during the autumn months, as the jet/storm activity remains displaced south relative to climo.

Question is how far south does it extend? I suspect CA is safe. Big question is OR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the Willamette Valley, if we don't pick up some decent rain in the next two weeks, that is pretty much it until September. Is what it is, it dries out every summer, some sooner than others. We had a solid snow pack this year, which was a blessing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting ready to dust off my 1957-58, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2004-05 analogs. 

[Front Ranger]

9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

Meanwhile, after our third wettest May on record, June is also looking pretty soggy here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Oregon department of agriculture is using 72-73, 01-02, and 12-13, as their current analogs. 

[Omegaraptor]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Getting ready to dust off my 1957-58, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2004-05 analogs. 

2004-05 seems like a decently likely scenario with wet weather continuing in CA. Skiers and snowboarders may want to book a TAHOE or MAMMOTH trip for this upcoming winter.

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the Oregon department of agriculture is using 72-73, 01-02, and 12-13, as their current analogs. 

Wouldn’t mind a December 1972 repeat.

[TT-SEA]

Still not great... but the air quality looks significantly improved in NYC today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDO is still TANKED. 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Still not great... but the air quality looks significantly improved in NYC today.

It's moved in over Phil.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/weather-video/code-maroon-hazardous-and-very-unhealthy-air-quality-grips-dc-area-putting-everyones-health-at-risk/3363226/

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2004-05 seems like a decently likely scenario with wet weather continuing in CA. Skiers and snowboarders may want to book a TAHOE or MAMMOTH trip for this upcoming winter.

Wouldn’t mind a December 1972 repeat.

04-05' was one of the worst snow pack years all-time in Oregon. 

[LowerGarfield]

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we look at the late winter/spring/early summer progression I think 2009 and 2018 are way better matches. 2015 was pretty much a continuous blowtorch from start to finish until mid-November. 

 

No disagreement here. 

May and June 2022 were a godsend here. Nonstop rain in a dry climate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

May and June 2022 were a godsend here. Nonstop rain in a dry climate. 

We really needed it out here too. January-March was pretty dry in 2022. Normal to slightly above normal precip in that timeframe this year. And April was fairly moist. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2004-05 seems like a decently likely scenario with wet weather continuing in CA. Skiers and snowboarders may want to book a TAHOE or MAMMOTH trip for this upcoming winter.

Wouldn’t mind a December 1972 repeat.

Lock it in!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

Dangerously close to measurable precip here now. Eastern Oregon gets BLESSED!

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

I love that little Wenatchee upslope spot. Assume thats the same spot that got dumped on snow last year in April or something. We desperately need the rain up in twisp...an inch would be amazing. 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

Ooof.  Took away almost everything from Vancouver island 

[Slushy Inch]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

.2 of an inch of rain will really help things from becoming too dry. 

[AlTahoe]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

04-05' was one of the worst snow pack years all-time in Oregon. 

We had one of our biggest snow storms in a two week period that winter. 150" at lake level! 

[Phishy Wx]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

Bring it, we need it.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ooof.  Took away almost everything from Vancouver island 

Yeah.... dreadful

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

.2 of an inch of rain will really help things from becoming too dry. 

0.2” helps but we need a lot more than that to reverse the dryness brought on by the last few weeks of dry weather. We’ve been average-below average rainfall every month for a year at this point actually. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

0.2” helps but we need a lot more than that to reverse the dryness brought on by the last few weeks of dry weather. We’ve been average-below average rainfall every month for a year at this point actually. 

That’s not good. Blame Tim!  It’s his fault.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ooof.  Took away almost everything from Vancouver island 

Yeah, western Whatcom County falls into that same screw zone.  I was really looking forward to that .25-.3" one of the models was showing earlier.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah, western Whatcom County falls into that same screw zone.  I was really looking forward to that .25-.3" one of the models was showing earlier.

Models have a terrible time predicting wrap around moisture... particularly when it's moving westward.     Anything can happen tomorrow.   Have to just watch it play out in real time.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

It's moved in over Phil.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/weather-video/code-maroon-hazardous-and-very-unhealthy-air-quality-grips-dc-area-putting-everyones-health-at-risk/3363226/

 

Conditions have improved this afternoon (at least temporarily) but yeah, this morning was the worst air quality I can remember, save a few hyper-local burns during cold season downslope winds. And those were all super brief.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS

Just an absolute clusterfuck of solutions looking at the individual members. Rare for the EPS.  

[Phil]

12 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

California. Yet again.

[Phil]

Soon begins the long march back to winter!

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1666915738123374594?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Soon begins the long march back to winter!

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1666915738123374594?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Another way to look at it is that we are just 6 months away now from beginning the march towards summer all over again!

[TT-SEA]

In the latest Ag Weather update just released in the last hour... Eric talked about the MJO going into phase 2 which eventually will favor PNW ridging again.   

[Deweydog]

12 months from now sun angles will be at 6/8 levels.

[Phishy Wx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

[Phishy Wx]

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

In the latest Ag Weather update just released in the last hour... Eric talked about the MJO going into phase 2 which eventually will favor PNW ridging again.   

Problem is he takes phase-2 in all +ENSO years, which includes WPAC-evolving events (2023 is very different from that).

The structure of both the ENSO and off-equatorial SSTA signatures should determine the analog pool, not just the tiny niño 3.4 box (otherwise you would treat years like 2014 and 2012 the same, when in reality the off-eq base states were diametrically opposed).

Would be nice if we could project seasonal weather/climate based on something as simple as niño 3.4 SSTAs. But in reality the variance in both low pass evolution and ET response(s) amongst niño years is almost as great as between niño and niña years.