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Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023


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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Problem is he takes phase-2 in all +ENSO years, which includes WPAC-evolving events (2023 is very different from that).

The structure of both the ENSO and off-equatorial SSTA signatures should determine the analog pool, not just the tiny niño 3.4 box (otherwise you would treat years like 2014 and 2012 the same, when in reality the off-eq base states were diametrically opposed).

Would be nice if we could project seasonal weather/climate based on something as simple as niño 3.4 SSTAs. But in reality the variance in both low pass evolution and ET response(s) amongst niño years is almost as great as between niño and niña years. 🤓

He has also implied several times that the PDO influences the pattern rather than being a reflection of the pattern... always bothers me.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He has also implied several times that the PDO influences the pattern rather than being a reflection of the pattern... always bothers me.

I noticed that. If he were arguing the PMM influences the pattern (subtropical/near-equatorial component of cold SSTA horseshoe) I would be inclined to agree.

But the high latitude SSTAs are basically an echo of the low frequency state of circulation. They do not act as a forcing (at least not on any timescale relevant to us, there’s some debate when looking at 500+ year timescales).

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Another nicer than expected day. 71/55 spread and partly mostly cloudy skies.

Looks like there could be some rain at times tonight into tomorrow. Although we may be close to the southern boundary. The event shown over NW Washington the last few days has been shifting south on the models.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Great sunset! 
75/52 on the day. Currently 58. 
It’s coming!! My dog doesn’t seem to care though. 

IMG_6168.jpeg

IMG_6170.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Parts of the central and northern Sound may get an inch...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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RGEM hinted at the potential for some embedded convection. Differential flow aloft is doing some interesting things.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Oh man, I'm so hyped! I really want a good rainstorm.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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FWIW, the only El Niño winter immediately following three consecutive La Niña winters is 1911/12. That’s it. 😂

Broaden the criteria to 3+ year -ENSO, and 1957/58, 1986/87, and 2002/03 come into play. Also 1876/77 if you want to include the stone age years.

Still, that’s a vanishingly small sample size.

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Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:33 p.m. PDT Thursday 8 June 2023.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot and dry weather to 
the province. 

The following areas will have set or tied a daily maximum 
temperature record on June 8, 2023: 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.4 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1958 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 37.7 
Old record of 36.9 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 36.4 
Old record of 32.8 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.5 
Old record of 26.9 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Golden Area (Golden Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 34.6 
Old record of 34.4 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1902 

Kamloops Area (Kamloops Aut) 
Currently tied record of 35.0 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1890 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
Preliminary new record of 35.1 
Old record of 34.9 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lillooet Area (Lillooet) 
Preliminary new record of 36.4 
Old record of 36.0 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1917 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 38.5 
Old record of 36.7 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 32.3 
Old record of 28.8 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.7 
Old record of 34.6 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 32.0 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Princeton Area (Princeton CS) 
Preliminary new record of 34.1 
Old record of 33.9 set in 1903 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 31.4 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Quesnel Area (Quesnel Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 33.8 
Old record of 32.2 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 35.9 
Old record of 35.0 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
Preliminary new record of 30.9 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) 
Preliminary new record of 30.3 
Old record of 28.9 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Yoho (National Park) Area (Yoho Park) 
Preliminary new record of 30.3 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1923 

 

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Moderate rain here... just on the northern edge of this blob of precip on the radar.    Summer rain is so loud when you are outside with the sound of the rain drops hitting the leaves.   Quite lovely.  

06Z ECMWF shows the next round focusing farther north tonight and tomorrow morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-1686290400-1686308400-1686423600-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When I play that video back on here on my phone there is sound... but when I play it on my computer there is no sound.   Strange.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When I play that video back on here on my phone there is sound... but when I play it on my computer there is no sound.   Strange.

Normally when you playback a video on your phone, you need to click the little speaker in the bottom right corner so you can hear the sound. That's how my phone works.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Moderate rain here... just on the northern edge of this blob of precip on the radar.    Summer rain is so loud when you are outside with the sound of the rain drops hitting the leaves.   Quite lovely.  

06Z ECMWF shows the next round focusing farther north tonight and tomorrow morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-1686290400-1686308400-1686423600-20.gif

I haven’t seen a drop of rain this month. Every opportunity evaporates in the D3-5 range, pun intended.

Would be hilarious if you finished June with more rainfall than me. Not sure that’s ever happened but this year is so f***ed who knows.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Today really stands out on the 06Z GFS...

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6290400.png

GFS seems consistently warmer than every ensemble member up there. Seems like it arises both via 2m temp bias (overmixing/drying BL) and what it tries to do with 500mb heights in the LR most runs (some kind of systemic bias over NE-Pacific).

The difference is pretty astounding.

IMG_4019.png

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I haven’t seen a drop of rain this month. Every opportunity evaporates in the D3-5 range, pun intended.

Would be hilarious if you finished June with more rainfall than me. Not sure that’s ever happened but this year is so f***ed who knows.

Up to .25 on the day now which is nice but not nearly enough.    The Snoqualmie Falls site in the valley averages 2.86 inches in June so there are normally at least several rain events in my area.    There is not much on the horizon after today.    But who knows... I didn't think this system would deliver rain here just a couple days ago. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

GFS seems consistently warmer than every ensemble member up there. Evident both in 2m temps and what it tries to do with 500mb heights in the LR most runs.

IMG_4019.png

 

But the GEFS and EPS almost always go towards climo after about day 7,    And the flip side is that the GFS also looks unreasonably cold at times.    It goes both ways with the extremes.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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