TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Phil said: Problem is he takes phase-2 in all +ENSO years, which includes WPAC-evolving events (2023 is very different from that). The structure of both the ENSO and off-equatorial SSTA signatures should determine the analog pool, not just the tiny niño 3.4 box (otherwise you would treat years like 2014 and 2012 the same, when in reality the off-eq base states were diametrically opposed). Would be nice if we could project seasonal weather/climate based on something as simple as niño 3.4 SSTAs. But in reality the variance in both low pass evolution and ET response(s) amongst niño years is almost as great as between niño and niña years. He has also implied several times that the PDO influences the pattern rather than being a reflection of the pattern... always bothers me. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 9 hours ago, Blizzard777 said: Something is ablaze in Tacoma ??? Homeless encampment lit up……I now have closure Beautiful day here in the South sound…cocktails on the patio 74* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 55 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: I need me some of that action! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: He has also implied several times that the PDO influences the pattern rather than being a reflection of the pattern... always bothers me. I noticed that. If he were arguing the PMM influences the pattern (subtropical/near-equatorial component of cold SSTA horseshoe) I would be inclined to agree. But the high latitude SSTAs are basically an echo of the low frequency state of circulation. They do not act as a forcing (at least not on any timescale relevant to us, there’s some debate when looking at 500+ year timescales). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 73/53 today much more pleasant than yesterday. Looking forward to whatever rain we get tomorrow…hoping for atleast a quarter inch but we will see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: 12 months from now sun angles will be at 6/8 levels. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 9, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Another nicer than expected day. 71/55 spread and partly mostly cloudy skies. Looks like there could be some rain at times tonight into tomorrow. Although we may be close to the southern boundary. The event shown over NW Washington the last few days has been shifting south on the models. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 It seems like our weather could be coming from the East, that's if it holds together. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisEl Elyon Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Looks pretty cool tomorrow. 52°/77° for the day today here at Spanaway. Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 KNIGHTS LOSE!! Matt gets to go to game 5! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eugene-5SW Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Some really nice buildups over the Trinity Alps in N. Cal today. Didn't hear thunder or see lightning but it was fun to watch the clouds develop. Gorgeous country. First shot is at 10:30 a.m. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunAndSnow Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 It’s raining! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Finally raining! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Holy shite sustained 47 mph winds before our station/internet went down in twisp. No rain but I saw roof shingles being blown off as the “front” or whatever pushed through 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Great sunset! 75/52 on the day. Currently 58. It’s coming!! My dog doesn’t seem to care though. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisEl Elyon Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Parts of the central and northern Sound may get an inch... 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 9, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Down to 65 with light rain here. Such a pleasant surprise. Smells great outside. 3 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 The 00z models are looking pretty bullish on precip for tonight and tomorrow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 RGEM hinted at the potential for some embedded convection. Differential flow aloft is doing some interesting things. 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Oh man, I'm so hyped! I really want a good rainstorm. 4 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Oh man, I'm so hyped! I really want a good rainstorm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 FWIW, the only El Niño winter immediately following three consecutive La Niña winters is 1911/12. That’s it. Broaden the criteria to 3+ year -ENSO, and 1957/58, 1986/87, and 2002/03 come into play. Also 1876/77 if you want to include the stone age years. Still, that’s a vanishingly small sample size. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: KNIGHTS LOSE!! Matt gets to go to game 5! BIZARRE MIX OF EMOTIONS! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Weather summary for British Columbia issued by Environment Canada at 5:33 p.m. PDT Thursday 8 June 2023. Discussion. A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot and dry weather to the province. The following areas will have set or tied a daily maximum temperature record on June 8, 2023: Blue River Area (Blue River CS) Preliminary new record of 35.4 Old record of 30.0 set in 1958 Records in this area have been kept since 1946 Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) Preliminary new record of 37.7 Old record of 36.9 set in 2015 Records in this area have been kept since 1944 Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) Preliminary new record of 36.4 Old record of 32.8 set in 1969 Records in this area have been kept since 1913 Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) Preliminary new record of 30.5 Old record of 26.9 set in 2015 Records in this area have been kept since 1974 Golden Area (Golden Airport) Preliminary new record of 34.6 Old record of 34.4 set in 1948 Records in this area have been kept since 1902 Kamloops Area (Kamloops Aut) Currently tied record of 35.0 set in 1948 Records in this area have been kept since 1890 Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) Preliminary new record of 35.1 Old record of 34.9 set in 2015 Records in this area have been kept since 1899 Lillooet Area (Lillooet) Preliminary new record of 36.4 Old record of 36.0 set in 2015 Records in this area have been kept since 1917 Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) Preliminary new record of 38.5 Old record of 36.7 set in 1948 Records in this area have been kept since 1921 Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 32.3 Old record of 28.8 set in 1987 Records in this area have been kept since 1971 Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) Preliminary new record of 35.7 Old record of 34.6 set in 2015 Records in this area have been kept since 1908 Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 32.0 Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 Records in this area have been kept since 1912 Princeton Area (Princeton CS) Preliminary new record of 34.1 Old record of 33.9 set in 1903 Records in this area have been kept since 1893 Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) Preliminary new record of 31.4 Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 Records in this area have been kept since 1959 Quesnel Area (Quesnel Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 33.8 Old record of 32.2 set in 1969 Records in this area have been kept since 1893 Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) Preliminary new record of 35.9 Old record of 35.0 set in 1948 Records in this area have been kept since 1898 Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) Preliminary new record of 30.9 Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 Records in this area have been kept since 1950 Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) Preliminary new record of 30.3 Old record of 28.9 set in 1969 Records in this area have been kept since 1960 Yoho (National Park) Area (Yoho Park) Preliminary new record of 30.3 Old record of 27.8 set in 1923 Records in this area have been kept since 1923 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisEl Elyon Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 0.05"of rain as of early this morning here in Spanaway 53° 2 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Hoo-"rain"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 9, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Light but steady rain this morning. Temp is 54 degrees. Have picked up about .05” since last night. Hopefully more today. Looks and feels great out there. 5 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Rain! Not a lot so far but enough to wet everything down and make some puddles. 53 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Moderate rain here... just on the northern edge of this blob of precip on the radar. Summer rain is so loud when you are outside with the sound of the rain drops hitting the leaves. Quite lovely. 06Z ECMWF shows the next round focusing farther north tonight and tomorrow morning. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Today really stands out on the 06Z GFS... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 0.07” of blessings so far. Looks like Tacoma is in a good spot too bad it’s not a heavier and more regional soaking. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Play with sound up... the beautiful sound of summer rain. 20230609_065728.mp4 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 When I play that video back on here on my phone there is sound... but when I play it on my computer there is no sound. Strange. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 Quote Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) Preliminary new record of 38.5 Old record of 36.7 set in 1948 Records in this area have been kept since 1921 And for those who prefer Fahrenheit, that's 101.3˚F. BC’s first 100-burger of the year! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: When I play that video back on here on my phone there is sound... but when I play it on my computer there is no sound. Strange. Normally when you playback a video on your phone, you need to click the little speaker in the bottom right corner so you can hear the sound. That's how my phone works. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Moderate rain here... just on the northern edge of this blob of precip on the radar. Summer rain is so loud when you are outside with the sound of the rain drops hitting the leaves. Quite lovely. 06Z ECMWF shows the next round focusing farther north tonight and tomorrow morning. I haven’t seen a drop of rain this month. Every opportunity evaporates in the D3-5 range, pun intended. Would be hilarious if you finished June with more rainfall than me. Not sure that’s ever happened but this year is so f***ed who knows. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Today really stands out on the 06Z GFS... GFS seems consistently warmer than every ensemble member up there. Seems like it arises both via 2m temp bias (overmixing/drying BL) and what it tries to do with 500mb heights in the LR most runs (some kind of systemic bias over NE-Pacific). The difference is pretty astounding. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: I haven’t seen a drop of rain this month. Every opportunity evaporates in the D3-5 range, pun intended. Would be hilarious if you finished June with more rainfall than me. Not sure that’s ever happened but this year is so f***ed who knows. Up to .25 on the day now which is nice but not nearly enough. The Snoqualmie Falls site in the valley averages 2.86 inches in June so there are normally at least several rain events in my area. There is not much on the horizon after today. But who knows... I didn't think this system would deliver rain here just a couple days ago. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 9, 2023 Report Share Posted June 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: GFS seems consistently warmer than every ensemble member up there. Evident both in 2m temps and what it tries to do with 500mb heights in the LR most runs. But the GEFS and EPS almost always go towards climo after about day 7, And the flip side is that the GFS also looks unreasonably cold at times. It goes both ways with the extremes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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