Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

2009 and 2015 were both crazy dry and endlessly sunny during the second half of May and first half of June.    Those years stand out for me for late spring and early summer because that is pretty unusual here.

If we look at the late winter/spring/early summer progression I think 2009 and 2018 are way better matches. 2015 was pretty much a continuous blowtorch from start to finish until mid-November. 

 

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of being completely opposite... the mid-May through mid-June period in 2010 and 2022 was on the other end of the spectrum.    In those years there was rain on almost every day in that period in my area.   This year basically nothing.  

No disagreement here. 

[MWG]

Nice quick storm passing through here. My dog doesn’t usually get scared about thunder but we were outside and he quickly went inside the house. We went to go cover the windows of our cars and even though they weren’t that big they hurt because how fast it was coming down. 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MWG said:

Nice quick storm passing through here. My dog doesn’t usually get scared about thunder but we were outside and he quickly went inside the house. We went to go cover the windows of our cars and even though they weren’t that big they hurt because how fast it was coming down. 

IMG_4363.mov 14.68 MB · 0 downloads  

 

 

 

Score! Hope you have been well. 

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once again when comparing years I have to add the caveat that I am talking about observed weather in our region. Not Indian Ocean SST's. I've only mentioned this about 500 times, but I guess it needs to be repeated. PHIL. 

To be fair I didn’t mention Indian Ocean SSTs.  

[MWG]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score! Hope you have been well. 

I have been and hope you too as well! Just been busy with work but hopefully it will calm down during summer and I can post more frequently.

[Cascadia_Wx]

82/58 day here. Well below 90 which was a nice surprise. Had some high clouds at times and a cooler breeze in the afternoon. Higher DPs as well.

[MWG]

Can't link the tweet for some reason but nice picture from the storm.

[MossMan]

84/52 on the day. Currently 58. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember much about 2015 other than it was a really hot summer, just like most of the past 10 or so. I remember the late June/early July period. Not much else beyond that. My detailed memories are more in regards to cold events, the warm stuff just all kind of blends together now that it's 99.9% of our days. 

This is well said Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, MWG said:

Can't link the tweet for some reason but nice picture from the storm.

Beautiful country. I’ll be in Ashland next month and I can’t wait. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The mini cool down late this week is looking pretty washed out in the 00z GFS. Doesn’t show PDX with a single sub-80 day tomorrow through Saturday. Probably a little overdone.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59F and some thin clouds. Really pleasant day.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember much about 2015 other than it was a really hot summer, just like most of the past 10 or so. I remember the late June/early July period. Not much else beyond that. My detailed memories are more in regards to cold events, the warm stuff just all kind of blends together now that it's 99.9% of our days. 

I just looked through November - April at SEA... about 75% of the days were colder than normal.    Your math is off by a significant margin.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF actually shows a decent soaking for King County on Friday.   Much farther south than previous runs.

[ShawniganLake]

Warm afternoon here. Topped out at 88F. 

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with an 86/50 spread today. Currently 63.2.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Thoroughly demoralizing 00z Euro run this evening.

[Cloud]

Look like the Euro is showing some nice rainfall totals for Friday at SEA. This would end the dry streak dating back to May 22. 

[ShawniganLake]

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Cloud said:

Look like the Euro is showing some nice rainfall totals for Friday at SEA. This would end the dry streak dating back to May 22. 

06Z ECMWF was even farther south with the rain tomorrow... also shows a high in the low 60s in Seattle.

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF was even farther south with the rain tomorrow... also shows a high in the low 60s in Seattle.

That would be awesome, but we need a few of these systems to really help out. It’s incredibly dry right now though so anything helps. 

[Phil]

El Niño officially declared  

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

Its technically showing up in the models... devil is in the details of course in terms of how much rain it means for us.  

[LowerGarfield]

19 hours ago, Phil said:

“East coast media bias” definitely evident though.

Barely a mention from some of these outlets while the West has been dealing with this crud for a decade, and now it’s front page news as if it’s something new.  

Maybe the Eastern states will have to rake their forests and see how hard it is.

As for my location currently it is overcast and hoping we get some measurable precipitation today (preferably after noon because my son's school has field day outside and spouse is helping). But we need the rain. Parts of Idaho and NE WA look to have a decent amount but I'd love some in my SE corner.

[Blizzard777]

Something is ablaze in Tacoma ???

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF was even farther south with the rain tomorrow... also shows a high in the low 60s in Seattle.

Not bad. Central Vancouver island needs some rain. There is a 300 acre fire burning just a couple miles from the Iconic Cathedral grove near Port Alberni. 

[LowerGarfield]

Had about .03 this morning when I took my son to school. But really hoping for more. Just enough to wet the grass but ground is still dry here. As MWG said, it feels muggy but cooler.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like this morning's marine layer knocked grass pollen all the way down to 309.

Blessings from the Lord above!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF actually shows a decent soaking for King County on Friday.   Much farther south than previous runs.

Holy ! Rain!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Long lost ML has returned to KPDX this morning.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not bad. Central Vancouver island needs some rain. There is a 300 acre fire burning just a couple miles from the Iconic Cathedral grove near Port Alberni. 

And the air quality has deteriorated correspondingly.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And the air quality has deteriorated correspondingly.

Air quality has been fine here. But there is also a large fire up near Harrison lake that is feeding smoke into the Fraser Valley. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Air quality has been fine here. But there is also a large fire up near Harrison lake that is feeding smoke into the Fraser Valley. 

It’s hazy here but nowhere near as bad as peak smoke season. But also no longer clean and clear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice GFS run, the ship has obviously sailed on the rainy season, but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to torch. Down in the fine city of ALBANY this morning and there is still pretty solid overcast. 

[MossMan]

HCS (with possibly a little high based smoke as well) here in Wenatchee! Currently 81 degrees. 

[Phil]

Dry soil moisture anomalies starting to creep south into WA. For awhile I’ve expected the northern zones (WA/BC) would run the warmest/driest anomalies this summer, but with the El Niño firmly establishing (and early on), there is a good chance this turns into a bonafide drought during the autumn months, as the jet/storm activity remains displaced south relative to climo.

Question is how far south does it extend? I suspect CA is safe. Big question is OR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the Willamette Valley, if we don't pick up some decent rain in the next two weeks, that is pretty much it until September. Is what it is, it dries out every summer, some sooner than others. We had a solid snow pack this year, which was a blessing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting ready to dust off my 1957-58, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2004-05 analogs. 

[Front Ranger]

9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

Meanwhile, after our third wettest May on record, June is also looking pretty soggy here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Oregon department of agriculture is using 72-73, 01-02, and 12-13, as their current analogs. 

[Omegaraptor]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Getting ready to dust off my 1957-58, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2004-05 analogs. 

2004-05 seems like a decently likely scenario with wet weather continuing in CA. Skiers and snowboarders may want to book a TAHOE or MAMMOTH trip for this upcoming winter.

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the Oregon department of agriculture is using 72-73, 01-02, and 12-13, as their current analogs. 

Wouldn’t mind a December 1972 repeat.

[TT-SEA]

Still not great... but the air quality looks significantly improved in NYC today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDO is still TANKED. 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Still not great... but the air quality looks significantly improved in NYC today.

It's moved in over Phil.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/weather-video/code-maroon-hazardous-and-very-unhealthy-air-quality-grips-dc-area-putting-everyones-health-at-risk/3363226/

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2004-05 seems like a decently likely scenario with wet weather continuing in CA. Skiers and snowboarders may want to book a TAHOE or MAMMOTH trip for this upcoming winter.

Wouldn’t mind a December 1972 repeat.

04-05' was one of the worst snow pack years all-time in Oregon. 

[LowerGarfield]

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we look at the late winter/spring/early summer progression I think 2009 and 2018 are way better matches. 2015 was pretty much a continuous blowtorch from start to finish until mid-November. 

 

No disagreement here. 

May and June 2022 were a godsend here. Nonstop rain in a dry climate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

May and June 2022 were a godsend here. Nonstop rain in a dry climate. 

We really needed it out here too. January-March was pretty dry in 2022. Normal to slightly above normal precip in that timeframe this year. And April was fairly moist. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2004-05 seems like a decently likely scenario with wet weather continuing in CA. Skiers and snowboarders may want to book a TAHOE or MAMMOTH trip for this upcoming winter.

Wouldn’t mind a December 1972 repeat.

Lock it in!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

Dangerously close to measurable precip here now. Eastern Oregon gets BLESSED!