Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

I love that little Wenatchee upslope spot. Assume thats the same spot that got dumped on snow last year in April or something. We desperately need the rain up in twisp...an inch would be amazing. 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

Ooof.  Took away almost everything from Vancouver island 

[Slushy Inch]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

.2 of an inch of rain will really help things from becoming too dry. 

[AlTahoe]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

04-05' was one of the worst snow pack years all-time in Oregon. 

We had one of our biggest snow storms in a two week period that winter. 150" at lake level! 

[Phishy Wx]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF for the rain event tomorrow.

Bring it, we need it.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ooof.  Took away almost everything from Vancouver island 

Yeah.... dreadful

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

.2 of an inch of rain will really help things from becoming too dry. 

0.2” helps but we need a lot more than that to reverse the dryness brought on by the last few weeks of dry weather. We’ve been average-below average rainfall every month for a year at this point actually. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

0.2” helps but we need a lot more than that to reverse the dryness brought on by the last few weeks of dry weather. We’ve been average-below average rainfall every month for a year at this point actually. 

That’s not good. Blame Tim!  It’s his fault.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ooof.  Took away almost everything from Vancouver island 

Yeah, western Whatcom County falls into that same screw zone.  I was really looking forward to that .25-.3" one of the models was showing earlier.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah, western Whatcom County falls into that same screw zone.  I was really looking forward to that .25-.3" one of the models was showing earlier.

Models have a terrible time predicting wrap around moisture... particularly when it's moving westward.     Anything can happen tomorrow.   Have to just watch it play out in real time.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

It's moved in over Phil.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/weather-video/code-maroon-hazardous-and-very-unhealthy-air-quality-grips-dc-area-putting-everyones-health-at-risk/3363226/

 

Conditions have improved this afternoon (at least temporarily) but yeah, this morning was the worst air quality I can remember, save a few hyper-local burns during cold season downslope winds. And those were all super brief.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS

Just an absolute clusterfuck of solutions looking at the individual members. Rare for the EPS.  

[Phil]

12 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The last measurable rain at Shawnigan Lake was 0.01” on May 9th.  Where’s our soggy June jet extension?

California. Yet again.

[Phil]

Soon begins the long march back to winter!

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1666915738123374594?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Soon begins the long march back to winter!

https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1666915738123374594?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Another way to look at it is that we are just 6 months away now from beginning the march towards summer all over again!

[TT-SEA]

In the latest Ag Weather update just released in the last hour... Eric talked about the MJO going into phase 2 which eventually will favor PNW ridging again.   

[Deweydog]

12 months from now sun angles will be at 6/8 levels.

[Phishy Wx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

[Phishy Wx]

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

In the latest Ag Weather update just released in the last hour... Eric talked about the MJO going into phase 2 which eventually will favor PNW ridging again.   

Problem is he takes phase-2 in all +ENSO years, which includes WPAC-evolving events (2023 is very different from that).

The structure of both the ENSO and off-equatorial SSTA signatures should determine the analog pool, not just the tiny niño 3.4 box (otherwise you would treat years like 2014 and 2012 the same, when in reality the off-eq base states were diametrically opposed).

Would be nice if we could project seasonal weather/climate based on something as simple as niño 3.4 SSTAs. But in reality the variance in both low pass evolution and ET response(s) amongst niño years is almost as great as between niño and niña years.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Problem is he takes phase-2 in all +ENSO years, which includes WPAC-evolving events (2023 is very different from that).

The structure of both the ENSO and off-equatorial SSTA signatures should determine the analog pool, not just the tiny niño 3.4 box (otherwise you would treat years like 2014 and 2012 the same, when in reality the off-eq base states were diametrically opposed).

Would be nice if we could project seasonal weather/climate based on something as simple as niño 3.4 SSTAs. But in reality the variance in both low pass evolution and ET response(s) amongst niño years is almost as great as between niño and niña years.

He has also implied several times that the PDO influences the pattern rather than being a reflection of the pattern... always bothers me.

[Blizzard777]

9 hours ago, Blizzard777 said:

Something is ablaze in Tacoma ???

Homeless encampment lit up……I now have closure 

Beautiful day here in the  South sound…cocktails on the patio  

74* 

[Blizzard777]

55 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I need me some of that action!  

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He has also implied several times that the PDO influences the pattern rather than being a reflection of the pattern... always bothers me.

I noticed that. If he were arguing the PMM influences the pattern (subtropical/near-equatorial component of cold SSTA horseshoe) I would be inclined to agree.

But the high latitude SSTAs are basically an echo of the low frequency state of circulation. They do not act as a forcing (at least not on any timescale relevant to us, there’s some debate when looking at 500+ year timescales).

[TacomaWx]

73/53 today much more pleasant than yesterday. Looking forward to whatever rain we get tomorrow…hoping for atleast a quarter inch but we will see. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

12 months from now sun angles will be at 6/8 levels.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another nicer than expected day. 71/55 spread and partly mostly cloudy skies.

Looks like there could be some rain at times tonight into tomorrow. Although we may be close to the southern boundary. The event shown over NW Washington the last few days has been shifting south on the models.

[Ken in Wood Village]

It seems like our weather could be coming from the East, that's if it holds together. 

[ChristheElohim]

Looks pretty cool tomorrow. 52°/77° for the day today here at Spanaway. 

[TT-SEA]

KNIGHTS LOSE!!   Matt gets to go to game 5!

[Eugene-5SW]

Some really nice buildups over the Trinity Alps in N. Cal today. Didn't hear thunder or see lightning but it was fun to watch the clouds develop. Gorgeous country.

First shot is at 10:30 a.m.

[SunAndSnow]

It’s raining! 

[Doinko]

Finally raining!

[RentonHill]

Holy shite sustained 47 mph winds before our station/internet went down in twisp. No rain but I saw roof shingles being blown off as the “front” or whatever pushed through 

[MossMan]

Great sunset! 
75/52 on the day. Currently 58. 
It’s coming!! My dog doesn’t seem to care though. 

[ChristheElohim]

[Meatyorologist]

Parts of the central and northern Sound may get an inch...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Down to 65 with light rain here. Such a pleasant surprise. Smells great outside.

[Timmy]

The 00z models are looking pretty bullish on precip for tonight and tomorrow.

[Meatyorologist]

RGEM hinted at the potential for some embedded convection. Differential flow aloft is doing some interesting things.

[Meatyorologist]

Oh man, I'm so hyped! I really want a good rainstorm.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh man, I'm so hyped! I really want a good rainstorm.

[Phil]

FWIW, the only El Niño winter immediately following three consecutive La Niña winters is 1911/12. That’s it.

Broaden the criteria to 3+ year -ENSO, and 1957/58, 1986/87, and 2002/03 come into play. Also 1876/77 if you want to include the stone age years.

Still, that’s a vanishingly small sample size.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

KNIGHTS LOSE!!   Matt gets to go to game 5!

BIZARRE MIX OF EMOTIONS!

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:33 p.m. PDT Thursday 8 June 2023.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot and dry weather to 
the province. 

The following areas will have set or tied a daily maximum 
temperature record on June 8, 2023: 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.4 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1958 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 37.7 
Old record of 36.9 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 36.4 
Old record of 32.8 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.5 
Old record of 26.9 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Golden Area (Golden Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 34.6 
Old record of 34.4 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1902 

Kamloops Area (Kamloops Aut) 
Currently tied record of 35.0 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1890 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
Preliminary new record of 35.1 
Old record of 34.9 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lillooet Area (Lillooet) 
Preliminary new record of 36.4 
Old record of 36.0 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1917 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 38.5 
Old record of 36.7 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 32.3 
Old record of 28.8 set in 1987 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.7 
Old record of 34.6 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 32.0 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Princeton Area (Princeton CS) 
Preliminary new record of 34.1 
Old record of 33.9 set in 1903 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 31.4 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Quesnel Area (Quesnel Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 33.8 
Old record of 32.2 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 35.9 
Old record of 35.0 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
Preliminary new record of 30.9 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) 
Preliminary new record of 30.3 
Old record of 28.9 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Yoho (National Park) Area (Yoho Park) 
Preliminary new record of 30.3 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1923 
Records in this area have been kept since 1923 

 

[ChristheElohim]

0.05"of rain as of early this morning here in Spanaway 53°

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hoo-"rain"!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Light but steady rain this morning. Temp is 54 degrees. Have picked up about .05” since last night. Hopefully more today. Looks and feels great out there.

[T-Town]

Rain!  Not a lot so far but enough to wet everything down and make some puddles. 53 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

Moderate rain here... just on the northern edge of this blob of precip on the radar.    Summer rain is so loud when you are outside with the sound of the rain drops hitting the leaves.   Quite lovely.  

06Z ECMWF shows the next round focusing farther north tonight and tomorrow morning.