Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[Anti Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

2022 is basically a perfect anti-log to 2023. Almost all of the important climate forcings have inverted. Unlike the last 2 years which went nuclear with ridging in late June, this year should be cooler/troughy during that timeframe.

After this last heat spike to open June, the next one doesn’t rear its ugly head until sometime around mid-July.

2019 had a cold SW, warm NW pattern in May but then California warmed up by early June. What's amazing is both May 2019 and May 2023 have now averaged below 70 F in Downtown LA, which does not happen very often. It only happened about 25 times since records began in 1877.

2020 had a very weak monsoon but I'm not sure if that was because of a weak 4CH or the 4CH being too strong and too far north.

It seems climate change is causing patterns of persistent troughing next to persistent ridging and more blocking patterns. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS is an absolute blessing.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z GFS is an absolute blessing.

Let’s see if Euro keeps crushing the dreams of getting a legitimate trough.

[Slushy Inch]

Actual rain.

[snow maniac]

34 degrees this morning. Hope my tomatoes are doing okay

[TacomaWx]

Went up to fort Flagler yesterday was pretty nice and cooler than back home. 

[MossMan]

Low of 42. Already quite windy again this morning! 

[the_convergence_zone]

My low temps for the last week have been: 49, 50, 50, 50, 49, 52, 49.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 6/3/2023 at 2:33 PM, Phil said:

I don’t think there will be any 100s in June. In fact I’ll wager there will be no 90s after 6/15 on the west side.

My money is on PDX recording at least one day of 105˚F or hotter this summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My money is on PDX recording at least one day of 105˚F or hotter this summer.

Oof

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Went up to fort Flagler yesterday was pretty nice and cooler than back home. 

I’m very familiar with that park since it’s close to where my dad lives and we visit it often when we’re up there. Crazy to see the grass so brown already. That’s like late summer brownness.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty morning here. Dipped down to 47. Should make a run for low 80s today.

[Phishy Wx]

Hoping for the Thundercrackers to produce later this week

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, snow maniac said:

34 degrees this morning. Hope my tomatoes are doing okay

Elevation makes a difference

[TacomaWx]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m very familiar with that park since it’s close to where my dad lives and we visit it often when we’re up there. Crazy to see the grass so brown already. That’s like late summer brownness.

Yeah everywhere is brown late summer looking here now. IIRC looks worse than it did here in June 2019. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Hoping for the Thundercrackers to produce later this week

 

Is that one of Matt’s teams can’t keep track 

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah everywhere is brown late summer looking here now. IIRC looks worse than it did here in June 2019. 

I’m hard pressed to think of any warm season in the last several years that didn’t stress our natural ecosystem to the limit in some form.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Ah, but the Knights have been pleasantly chilly, Jess! 

I must have missed this yesterday. Maybe in the last week, but at many stations the record warm May was largely carried on the back of very warm nights. PDX beat the old record warm average MINIMA (2018) by over a degree.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS continues to offer hope.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS continues to offer hope.

It’s really stuck to its guns. Time will tell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I must have missed this yesterday. Maybe in the last week, but at many stations the record warm May was largely carried on the back of very warm nights. PDX beat the old record warm average MINIMA (2018) by over a degree.

Oh yeah, looking at the Silver Falls stats, since its non UHI, it was the 5th warmest May on record, but tied 1997 for the warmest average minima at 44.7. 

We haven't had as much of a problem with that to start June, except for PDX which can't get below 50 in JJA to save their life. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, looking at the Silver Falls stats, since its non UHI, it was the 5th warmest May on record, but tied 1997 for the warmest average minima at 44.7. 

We haven't had as much of a problem with that to start June, except for PDX which can't get below 50 in JJA to save their life. 

They had a 47 I think on 6/1 which I was pretty happy with.

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I must have missed this yesterday. Maybe in the last week, but at many stations the record warm May was largely carried on the back of very warm nights. PDX beat the old record warm average MINIMA (2018) by over a degree.

PDX took a run at nine straight below average Lowe’s this morning but appears to have failed.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is that one of Matt’s teams can’t keep track 

Close, Bill S. Preston Jesquire! The Thunderbirds got dismantled yesterday in the Memorial Cup Final. Couldn’t bring the trophy south of the border for the first time since 2008 when Spokane achieved major junior hockey supremacy. Analog fail.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Close, Bill S. Preston Jesquire! The Thunderbirds got dismantled yesterday in the Memorial Cup Final. Couldn’t bring the trophy south of the border for the first time since 2008 when Spokane achieved major junior hockey supremacy. Analog fail.

Speaking of Spokane... is a move still on the horizon?

[ShawniganLake]

Feds currently doing a press conference on the unprecedented start to the fire season across Canada.  Sounds like fire fighters are coming in from all over the world. Already 8.15 million acres burned. 
 

BC jumped up to 1.7 million acres, almost all of that in the NE of the province. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feds currently doing a press conference on the unprecedented start to the fire season across Canada.  Sounds like fire fighters are coming in from all over the world. Already 8.15 million acres burned. 
 

BC jumped up to 1.7 million acres, almost all of that in the NE of the province. 

Really unfortunate to hear this. 

[Slushy Inch]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS continues to offer hope.

Euro has rain as well. 

[Omegaraptor]

 

Can we get to the millennium mark???

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Can we get to the millennium mark???

Maybe I actually have minor allergies because I am sneezing a lot today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Can we get to the millennium mark???

Eugene typically does.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof

It’s quite a modest prediction, actually. This summer is going to really torch, and 105°F is not even within 10 degrees of the all-time record.

[the_convergence_zone]

https://twitter.com/meteo_matt/status/1665755816027365376?s=20

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF trended troughier for the middle of next week... unfortunately the trajectory of that trough is totally dry.   But it could evolve into something wetter if the back side of the trough digs offshore.   The 00Z EPS showed that system sliding by mostly through western Canada.  

[Slushy Inch]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF trended troughier for the middle of next week... unfortunately the trajectory of that trough is totally dry.   But it could evolve into something wetter if the back side of the trough digs offshore.   The 00Z EPS showed that system sliding by mostly through western Canada.  

Ready for a more ridgy EPS

[MossMan]

Wind! Oven clock flashing so the power at least blinked off at some point this morning while I was at work. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ready for a more ridgy EPS

Decent agreement...

[TT-SEA]

Full EPS run... looks a little cooler than the 00Z run.   

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks like a change from 75 and sunny to 75 and sunny with a morning marine layer. Plus an end to our nice run of low dew points. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feds currently doing a press conference on the unprecedented start to the fire season across Canada.  Sounds like fire fighters are coming in from all over the world. Already 8.15 million acres burned. 
 

BC jumped up to 1.7 million acres, almost all of that in the NE of the province. 

I watch a game streamer that lives in Ottowa and he said it is absolutely terrible there right now.  Something we can definitely relate to out here.

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF weeklies just released...

[the_convergence_zone]

41 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I watch a game streamer that lives in Ottowa and he said it is absolutely terrible there right now.  Something we can definitely relate to out here.

In the long run it may be beneficial to have the eastern half of North America experience some of the misery that has plagued the western half of the continent in recent years. More likely to result in national policy changes as opposed to being a problem confined to the western states/provinces. 

[BLI snowman]

Didn't really think about it but that dewpoint of 26 yesterday at PDX and SEA was pretty freaky for a NW wind in early June....

[Phishy Wx]

........looks a lot like summer

[Deweydog]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of Spokane... is a move still on the horizon?

Kind of on an indefinite hold at this point for a number of reasons. 2023 has been an epic sh*t show here at weather sarcasm manor so headwinds are pretty stiff. As it turns out, amidst the chaos is also an opportunity for my wife in Nevada as well. Knights’ season tickets???

[Phil]

The smoke-nami has arrived. Sun is completely blocked.

Do better, Canada.  

https://twitter.com/jacob_feuer/status/1665845675907489792?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My money is on PDX recording at least one day of 105˚F or hotter this summer.

Maybe during mid/late July? 

[TT-SEA]

45 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Kind of on an indefinite hold at this point for a number of reasons. 2023 has been an epic sh*t show here at weather sarcasm manor so headwinds are pretty stiff. As it turns out, amidst the chaos is also an opportunity for my wife in Nevada as well. Knights’ season tickets???

Wow... not too many snow events in Vegas!  

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely perfect day... 74 with a few wispy high clouds and a light breeze.

Mark this down as a spectacular pattern in June for future reference:

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Didn't really think about it but that dewpoint of 26 yesterday at PDX and SEA was pretty freaky for a NW wind in early June....

And now some urban fire hawtness!

https://www.koin.com/news/washington/vancouver-brush-fire-burnt-bridge-creek-trail-evacuation-levels/