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Friday the 13th Winter Storm???


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Don't be fooled by the early warmth this month, "The Ides of March" are showing signs of the volatility this month can showcase, esp over the Great Plains.  The models are latching onto a late season snowfall across the Plains and into parts of the MW.

 

Let's discuss...

 

00z GEFS members showing some big hits across NE/S IA...

 

GEFSCGP_prec_snens_096.png

 

 

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_102.png

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Looks like the NAM keeps just about everything to the south and west of OMA/LNK. GFS not great either. I wouldn't jump on the Euro train since it's been garbage this year. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Hmm Nam riding pretty far south. It has been staying that way for the past 24 hours. Is this storm on shore yet?

By Friday it will be spinning right over the top of me in AZ. We’ll have some more shifts forthcoming I’d imagine. The system is still way offshore and SW of the Baja. I can tell you, the SubTropical connection is deep bc the rains have been torrential here all morning long.

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That’s such an immature and uneducated statement. Following ensemble trends are the way to go.

 

Only if it was intended as a serious post. 100% certain it was more like a sarcastic "troll" kind of post. Some Peeps like this dude get their kicks in odd ways.  :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Storm watches put out by North Platte. I guess I'll get pulled into one more storm this year. State boys basketball tournament starts tomorrow and the announcement was made that no one can attend except for family. I haven't missed a tournament game in years and was worried about possibly not making it home with the snow coming; I guess that won't be a worry of mine anymore! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...Winter Storm Watch...

NEZ022>026-035>038-056>059-121200-
/O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0001.200313T2100Z-200315T0000Z/
Garden-Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-Custer-
Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Oshkosh, Lewellen, Hyannis, Mullen,
Thedford, Halsey, Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Arthur, Tryon,
Ringgold, Stapleton, Broken Bow, Chappell, Big Springs, Ogallala,
Paxton, Grant, and North Platte
306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 /206 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches
or more possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, panhandle,
southwest and west central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

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And exactly how has that worked out for you this winter, big guy?

My local back home had to fight warm ground temps, marginal temps and precip type. A lot of others on here did fairly well following ensembles, not so much individual op runs.

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Tom,

 

I know what you mean, marginal temps and warm grounds cost KC about 15 inches of accumulation. Not to mention when it was way warm, we had big rain storms.

 

Your call for an active storm track for the winter was perfect, dang temps didn’t work out. What could have been...

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GFS already has the lowest temp at 35 (LOL) during the heart of the storm. Yeah, I trust the models about as much as I trust a sketchy fart. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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0z GEFS very similar to the EPS mean across NE...looking good for Gabel/Clint/CentralNeb...this system has a lot of moisture to play with out of the PAC.  I can confirm that the downpours here in AZ yesterday were almost tropical in nature.  Crazy to see in the desert.

 

GEFSCGP_prec_meansnacc_084.png

 

GEFSCGP_prec_snens_084.png

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I gotta laugh...the models always have the same look for me no matter what month it is.  Middle of January, middle of March doesn't matter. Always on the rain/snow line before the snow trends away. I hope some of you guys score a late season hit, but I get tired of the SSDD. Bring on spring and summer already...sheesh.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Looks like my call of 1-2" of slush was pretty spot on...

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/oax/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

 

With so many "mushy" events during this warm winter, it brings the point to mind that the map of "Total snow accumulation" might be more aptly named "Total snow fall". Have had numerous systems the past two years when 6" fell, but didn't accumulate anything close to that. Even on elevated surfaces in a couple instances (sad fact, I know). 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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With so many "mushy" events during this warm winter, it brings the point to mind that the map of "Total snow accumulation" might be more aptly named "Total snow fall". Have had numerous systems the past two years when 6" fell, but didn't accumulate anything close to that. Even on elevated surfaces in a couple instances (sad fact, I know).

Bingo! That’s been the story around here all “winter”. Regardless of what our official seasonal snowfall stat is this year, I can confirm only about half (if that) accumulated and only needing to shovel 2x.

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Good ole dry air winning out so far in my area. @centralneb. has some real good snow going on in his area. Good returns are showing up so hopefully the column gets saturated earlier than later.......

Verified reports of 4” and still snowing hard. It is now accumulating on streets and highways. Local Sheriff tweeted that roads are becoming treacherous. With the sun setting it will only get worse. Visibility has been as low as an 1/8th of a mile at times.

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Flurries are starting to sneak in… It’s crazy I can totally see the snow above us in the sky but it’s not saturated enough to get to the ground. Should be just a matter of time before we start to see some action.

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Steady light snow for the past several hours but unfortunately it’s above freezing. There’s been an outrageous amount of precipitation this winter at 33-35 degrees.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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