Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Don't be fooled by the early warmth this month, "The Ides of March" are showing signs of the volatility this month can showcase, esp over the Great Plains. The models are latching onto a late season snowfall across the Plains and into parts of the MW. Let's discuss... 00z GEFS members showing some big hits across NE/S IA... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Looks like the NAM keeps just about everything to the south and west of OMA/LNK. GFS not great either. I wouldn't jump on the Euro train since it's been garbage this year. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" Average: 25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaWX82 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Looks like the NAM keeps just about everything to the south and west of OMA/LNK. GFS not great either. I wouldn't jump on the Euro train since it's been garbage this year. ALL of the models have been garbage even 3 days out this winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Hmm Nam riding pretty far south. It has been staying that way for the past 24 hours. Is this storm on shore yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 hard to believe that in mid March a snow storm may miss me to the south. Northern MO looking like the place to be east of Nebraska. Most of Nebraska looks good per the Ukie. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 GEFS ensemble members further north than the Op model. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Hmm Nam riding pretty far south. It has been staying that way for the past 24 hours. Is this storm on shore yet?By Friday it will be spinning right over the top of me in AZ. We’ll have some more shifts forthcoming I’d imagine. The system is still way offshore and SW of the Baja. I can tell you, the SubTropical connection is deep bc the rains have been torrential here all morning long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 12z GEFS...looking more solid... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 The ensembles mean has been too high multiple times too. I GUARANTEE you we're not getting 6-12" of snow like all those members are showing. I'm calling for 1-2" of slush that will melt during the day on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 It's definitely not going to be that much considering they are using a 10:1 ratio in mid-march. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Euro continues to shift further south Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 12z EPS snow mean... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 That’s such an immature and uneducated statement. Following ensemble trends are the way to go. Only if it was intended as a serious post. 100% certain it was more like a sarcastic "troll" kind of post. Some Peeps like this dude get their kicks in odd ways. Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaWX82 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 That’s such an immature and uneducated statement. Following ensemble trends are the way to go.And exactly how has that worked out for you this winter, big guy? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Storm watches put out by North Platte. I guess I'll get pulled into one more storm this year. State boys basketball tournament starts tomorrow and the announcement was made that no one can attend except for family. I haven't missed a tournament game in years and was worried about possibly not making it home with the snow coming; I guess that won't be a worry of mine anymore! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service North Platte NE306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020...Winter Storm Watch...NEZ022>026-035>038-056>059-121200-/O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0001.200313T2100Z-200315T0000Z/Garden-Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Including the cities of Oshkosh, Lewellen, Hyannis, Mullen,Thedford, Halsey, Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Arthur, Tryon,Ringgold, Stapleton, Broken Bow, Chappell, Big Springs, Ogallala,Paxton, Grant, and North Platte306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 /206 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020/...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inchesor more possible.* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, panhandle,southwest and west central Nebraska.* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardousconditions could impact the evening commute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 And exactly how has that worked out for you this winter, big guy?My local back home had to fight warm ground temps, marginal temps and precip type. A lot of others on here did fairly well following ensembles, not so much individual op runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Tom, I know what you mean, marginal temps and warm grounds cost KC about 15 inches of accumulation. Not to mention when it was way warm, we had big rain storms. Your call for an active storm track for the winter was perfect, dang temps didn’t work out. What could have been... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Looks like my call of 1-2" of slush was pretty spot on... https://www.weather.gov/media/oax/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 GFS already has the lowest temp at 35 (LOL) during the heart of the storm. Yeah, I trust the models about as much as I trust a sketchy fart. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" Average: 25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 00z Euro still showing a widespread snowstorm for NE.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 0z GEFS very similar to the EPS mean across NE...looking good for Gabel/Clint/CentralNeb...this system has a lot of moisture to play with out of the PAC. I can confirm that the downpours here in AZ yesterday were almost tropical in nature. Crazy to see in the desert. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 NAM is quite juicy... (10:1) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Winter Storm Watches for parts of the area. 5-8" in spots. From NWS Hastings: https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Local Mets going 1-2, OAX thinking the same. Hopefully that's a little low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 12Z NAM is a nice hit for my area. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I gotta laugh...the models always have the same look for me no matter what month it is. Middle of January, middle of March doesn't matter. Always on the rain/snow line before the snow trends away. I hope some of you guys score a late season hit, but I get tired of the SSDD. Bring on spring and summer already...sheesh. 2 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Looks like my call of 1-2" of slush was pretty spot on... https://www.weather.gov/media/oax/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf With so many "mushy" events during this warm winter, it brings the point to mind that the map of "Total snow accumulation" might be more aptly named "Total snow fall". Have had numerous systems the past two years when 6" fell, but didn't accumulate anything close to that. Even on elevated surfaces in a couple instances (sad fact, I know). 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 OAX has the snow hitting a brick wall between York and Lincoln. Looks silly, but probably accurate. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" Average: 25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Winter storm warnings and advisories are now being hoisted for the area. Looks like a general 3-8" of snow for much of the region. We'll see what temperatures and melting does to these totals. Looks like much will fall at night which should limit some of the melting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 The GFS has been pretty consistently showing that scenario OAX has the snow hitting a brick wall between York and Lincoln. Looks silly, but probably accurate. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 With so many "mushy" events during this warm winter, it brings the point to mind that the map of "Total snow accumulation" might be more aptly named "Total snow fall". Have had numerous systems the past two years when 6" fell, but didn't accumulate anything close to that. Even on elevated surfaces in a couple instances (sad fact, I know).Bingo! That’s been the story around here all “winter”. Regardless of what our official seasonal snowfall stat is this year, I can confirm only about half (if that) accumulated and only needing to shovel 2x. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Both 00z GEFS/EPS targeting C NE near the epicenter of the heaviest snows??? 00z GEFS...8-10" mean near S/C NE??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Both 00z GEFS/EPS targeting C NE near the epicenter of the heaviest snows??? 00z GEFS...8-10" mean near S/C NE??? We’ll have to see how much melting occurs. Since it will be happening overnight it may help totals some. I will be home to enjoy it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Heavy snow started here an hour ago. 32 degrees and the ground is already covered. Local apps say 1-3" today, 3-5" tonight, 1" tomorrow morning. All right. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 I was just upped to a Winter Storm Warning. Here is the local camera. https://nebraska.tv/weather/camera-network/holdrege 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 18z NAM coming in much further north in Iowa 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Good ole dry air winning out so far in my area. @centralneb. has some real good snow going on in his area. Good returns are showing up so hopefully the column gets saturated earlier than later....... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Snow has started in Lincoln Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" Average: 25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Good ole dry air winning out so far in my area. @centralneb. has some real good snow going on in his area. Good returns are showing up so hopefully the column gets saturated earlier than later.......Verified reports of 4” and still snowing hard. It is now accumulating on streets and highways. Local Sheriff tweeted that roads are becoming treacherous. With the sun setting it will only get worse. Visibility has been as low as an 1/8th of a mile at times. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Flurries are starting to sneak in… It’s crazy I can totally see the snow above us in the sky but it’s not saturated enough to get to the ground. Should be just a matter of time before we start to see some action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Snow let up for a bit now increasing again. Streets are ice and slush covered. Would think the highways aren’t great with temp around 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Hastings upped my totals which is kind of a surprise. Radar doesn't look that impressive and snow rates are the same. With that being said ground is covered in snow so we shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Steady light snow for the past several hours but unfortunately it’s above freezing. There’s been an outrageous amount of precipitation this winter at 33-35 degrees. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" Average: 25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Finally some fat flakes with the rain. Hopefully.we get lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Fatties coming down and the grass is already white here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I was just upped to a Winter Storm Warning. Here is the local camera. https://nebraska.tv/weather/camera-network/holdregeLooks like a winter scene this morning out by you. How much did you score? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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