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April 2020 Observations and Discussion


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As our nation suffers the impacts of COVID-19, what could we expect to see in the weather department??  Signs are pointing towards a large scale blocking pattern to develop across the high latitudes of North America that spells a cooler and drier pattern for much of the Sub Forum as we open up April.  The doldrums of #delayedspring seem to be a common theme over the past several years.

 

Taking a look at long range ensembles, most, if not all, show a rather chilly pattern to take shape during the opening week of April. How long will this last?? We would normally be talking about how the weather would be impacting baseball season among other sporting events but that's just not the case this year.  

Let's discuss....

 

When taking a look at what is going on in the Strat, it doesn't paint a very appealing pattern.  Sadly, when we least expect it, the Strat warming event late this season may veer its ugly head.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

 

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Yuck!  Last night's Euro is terrible.  It gets stuck in a cold, dry pattern.  We struggle to get out of the 30s on some days.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This gonna suck on top of the whole national emergency. At least last spring's dismal conditions weren't piled on top of other problems.  :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I could just see April being cold, dismal, cloudy w snowshowers right after a rainstorm, or even possibly a snowstorm outta nowhere w accumulating hvy wet snow. Temps remaining in the 30s or 40s for highs w a few 50s, if we are luckily.  Also, I have a feeling April will be BN tempwise in MBY. Idk, but I hope I am wrong on this. Then again, its not like we can be outside to enjoy the warm, beautiful, April sunny weather, so, it might as well be dreary and chilly or even white for that matter.... :lol:

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I could just see April being cold, dismal, cloudy w snowshowers right after a rainstorm, or even possibly a snowstorm outta nowhere w accumulating hvy wet snow. Temps remaining in the 30s or 40s for highs w a few 50s, if we are luckily.  Also, I have a feeling April will be BN tempwise in MBY. Idk, but I hope I am wrong on this. Then again, its not like we can be outside to enjoy the warm, beautiful, April sunny weather, so, it might as well be dreary and chilly or even white for that matter.... :lol:

Not sure why you are not getting outside. I walk everyday out side. And here more and more people are waking and that is good. I did see that while the park (I live near a large park with a large wooded area) but the park now has closed the playground. So as long as you can get outside and get some fresh air. Of course it is much nice with sunny days and mild temperatures.  BTW how are things in your area? 

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Models are really flopping around.  Two nights ago the Euro was dreadfully cold through early April.  Last night's run has very little cold, just 50s to low 60s throughout.  I will gladly take average temps.  I just don't want long cold periods.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not sure why you are not getting outside. I walk everyday out side. And here more and more people are waking and that is good. I did see that while the park (I live near a large park with a large wooded area) but the park now has closed the playground. So as long as you can get outside and get some fresh air. Of course it is much nice with sunny days and mild temperatures.  BTW how are things in your area? 

This virus is airborne. You have to be real careful. Best thing to do is stay home.

 

Detroit is the hotspot now. So, its looking pretty dangerous here. Have to be real vigilant.

 

Stay home and avoid walks!

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Calm march likely means a roaring april here in the SW ozarks. Another 10 days or so will see what few chunks of old brown leaves shake or get pushed off and most of the others will fill in. Yard needing mowed on a schedule and in dire need of a weed trimmer says that winter 19-20 is fully in the garbage with the last 5. Goid riddance. Heres to a new era.

 

Spring has fully sprung.

 

Warm and stormy should be the rule here for April. Warm and dry NE US, cool NW and mixed west is my best guess. Variable leaning cool over the top of the forum group.

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Recent runs of the Euro/EPS have flipped substantially warmer for the Sub as we open up April. #blessing?

Bring the warm in early. Kind of a Niña thing. Got some interesting things beginning though as the AO looks like it's begenning what I'd call a new frequency pattern. It's an underlying harmonic that seems to be interdependent of the seasons or cyclical/recurring pattern theory. Could be a blip and the AO could spring positive yet again for the next 4 months, but my guess says it's the first of many dips and blips for awhile to come.

 

Finally seeing some very very long term patterns break down, or at least evidence that they should start any time.

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Everything I have heard on the virus being airborne is that in a close setting it maybe be transmissible, but in open air that there is not much concern?

 

There's a thread (sorta, lol) for this, but yeah. This virus isn't like nuclear radiation fall-out. Nor is it (hope not anyways) like an aerosol being sprayed from a crop dusting airplane. IF you were to walk really close to a contagious individual and they exhalled or coughed just right, you might get a face full of invisible droplets coming your way. Hence the 6 foot (I prefer 2m or 80") rule of safe margin. Being out and about for exercise should be a very low risk of exposure option as long as you are staying clear of others while doing so. Now if I could just convince my wife of this fact I'd be getting out regularly myself lol. This was a way of life for much of her youth in the former USSR. When the iron curtain fell back in '91, in fairly short order all the better physicians fled to other countries where they could live "free" and actually get paid much closer to what their education/talents should garner. Between that and a very shaky government transition, most medical establishments were basically broke, with few supplies (or suspect quality substitutes), staffed by lowest quality practitioners, etc. Catching even routine stuff let alone the flu meant suffering and many just plain didn't make it. Therefore they didn't take risks, and the best defense was social distancing. The primary mode of getting around there was either by foot locally, or mass-transit to go miles away such as the nearest large city. A lot like a major city in the US minus all the personal vehicles we've always preferred. This has always been a major contrast between us, and now I'm getting a small taste of what her world was like and why she's had this perspective. We are fortunate to have a top-notch hospital here in little Marshall and it's literally at the end of our street. Normally, that's a nice comforting thought. With this virus deal tho, I'd be even less excited about going there right now due to the increased risk of exposure versus just remaining at home. We probably all know someone who has caught an infection after surgery or such. My bro-in-law had a nasty one after his back surgery. He could've died it was so bad. Our hospitals are known for their great advanced capabilities, but not so great internal hygienic practices. 60 Minutes type programs have been doing stories on this for decades. Stay safe everyone!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The op Euro continues to look pretty good.  It has low 50s to low 60s through the weekend, which is pretty close to average, then 70s after that.  Thankfully, those cold runs a few days ago have not returned.  

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Today is MUCH better than yesterday.  Today we have sun and light wind, with a temp several degrees higher.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Today is MUCH better than yesterday.  Today we have sun and light wind, with a temp several degrees higher.

 

Trash conditions here. 42/34F WC and overcast. Only upside is I'm now looking out on green lawn vs brown a couple weeks ago. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The op Euro continues to look pretty good.  It has low 50s to low 60s through the weekend, which is pretty close to average, then 70s after that.  Thankfully, those cold runs a few days ago have not returned.  

 

Thank goodness. I was worried we were in for a miserable April similar to 2018. I remember days where it's like 7:30 pm and the sun is  still out but its like 30 degrees. It was almost surreal, especially still being my first year in Nebraska from the south. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Thank goodness. I was worried we were in for a miserable April similar to 2018. I remember days where it's like 7:30 pm and the sun is  still out but its like 30 degrees. It was almost surreal, especially still being my first year in Nebraska from the south. 

 

Sounds like our '13/14/15 stretch over this way. I remember taking my fam to Grand Haven for a little tourist visit on a very sunny Sunday afternoon. Not sure the date but it was post green-up so had to have been April. Under bright afternoon sunshine it was 27F  :wacko:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Overcast attm w temps hovering in the upper 30s

 

Just wait! ..it's coming bud.. ;)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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With March now behind us here are some stats from west Michigan for March. At Grand Rapids the mean was 38.6 and that is a departure of +3.0 the high for the month was 63 and the low was 17. There was 3.27” of rain and melted snow fall. The snow fall for the month was just 2.8” and the total now for the season is just 51.3” If this holds thru April this will be the 3rd  least snow fall at Grand Rapids since the current airport opened in 1963. And the 10th lowest snow fall amount since 1936 when the old airport opened on 36st street. At Muskegon the March mean was 38.3 the high for the month was 57 and the low was 16 and there was just 1.6” of snow fall. Their seasonal snow fall total now stands at just 51.9” and that is now some 40” below average. To the east at Lansing the mean there was 39.0 the high for the month was 62 and the low was 18. And they had 2.0” of snow fall and for the season they are now at 44.7” Their average for this time is 49.2”

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Indeed amigo....60s are looking likely next week. It will certainly green up a lot out there :D

 

Grass is already pretty green if not thick yet, but yeah, next week we'll likely see bushes popping leaflets. Our rose bush that faces south and is quite sheltered already has some. Looks like the lilac out back is close as well. It will have 'em after next week no doubt. So ready to lose these overcast and 30s/40s BS!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Grass is already pretty green if not thick yet, but yeah, next week we'll likely see bushes popping leaflets. Our rose bush that faces south and is quite sheltered already has some. Looks like the lilac out back is close as well. It will have 'em after next week no doubt. So ready to lose these overcast and 30s/40s BS!

Also, did you know that Marquette, MI currently has 20" of snow otg currently :lol: I guess that is normal for them though

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Also, did you know that Marquette, MI currently has 20" of snow otg currently :lol: I guess that is normal for them thoughS

Since the airport moved to it current location for Marquette the average snow depth for April 1st is 13" and has ranged from 0" several times that last time was in 2012 all the way up to 41" in 1997. In 2013 there was 36" on the ground and in 2014 there was 32". In 1997 there was over 10" on the ground until April 17th and there was over 1" until April 23rd and a trace still reported on the 30th. For 2013 there was at least 10" on the ground for the whole month and the snow did not all melt until May 4th In 2014 the snow did not all melt until May 2nd.

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I also did not expect rain and cold into early afternoon.  It is only 40º.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Also, did you know that Marquette, MI currently has 20" of snow otg currently :lol: I guess that is normal for them though

 

3+ feet in the snow-belts of the UP....umm no thanks!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Western Iowa really soared today, into the 70s.  We were cold into early afternoon, but the clouds cleared and we've jumped to 56º.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As the nation prepares for what looks like a complete shutdown or "stay at home order" for this month, is the weather going to keep us indoors or outside???  Trends in the modeling have not been friendly once we get past the "brief" spring tease coming this weekend into early next week for most of our members.

 

It appears my intel was right and the number of states that have "stay at home" orders has increased with nearly 85% of American's effected...

 

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3

 

 

 

 

 

Together, the state and city populations affected by some kind of stay-at-home order hold approximately 277 million people — about 85% of the US population.  
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Interesting "feedback" scenario is probably going to play out in the NE PAC where the waters have warmed considerably and the NE PAC ridge is poised to fire up.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

Both the GEFS/EPS agree with a general idea that the pattern may be heading towards a cooler one...the EPS is a lot cooler the farther east compared to the GEFS and centering the cold pool over the GL's/OHV for Week 2.  

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_npac_10.png

4.png

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Gorgeous day outside. Looking from my homeoffice window, not a cloud to be found. Temps should top off in the upper 50s today, possibly near 60F

 

Btw: Protect your homes people. W this virus going on now, home robberies are up percentagewise. Make sure you own a gun or any sort of weapon. Anyone tries and enters my house will get shot instantly. I will not hesitate!

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Who would have imagined this?!  This report was created in late 2018.

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330184909_Are_We_Approaching_a_New_Influenza_Pandemic

 

Wow. Ties the virus and the weather via La-Nina conditions. First I've even heard of that. Also ties it to the solar min, which is one thing our buddy Tom missed when he was calculating the impacts of solar. Hey, but we will cut him some slack as it's been like 101 yrs, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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