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April 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Flipping through the models and it dawned on me that once this ridge in the west builds, it's almost like a "Ring of Fire" pattern sets up next week.

I've been dreading this part of our pattern coming for a long time. If it verifies, gonna be a long hard summer. I'd say 2 heat waves at least. I could be wrong, too, and it could set up over the western US in later summer. This is a good time for pattern recognition skills anyway.

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I've been dreading this part of our pattern coming for a long time. If it verifies, gonna be a long hard summer. I'd say 2 heat waves at least. I could be wrong, too, and it could set up over the western US in later summer. This is a good time for pattern recognition skills anyway.

Even out here, the heat wave that’s being forecasted is about a month early and the streak of 100’s will tally up! First time all year we flipped the A/C today. Prob won’t turn off for at least a couple weeks.

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A line of thundershowers is about to move through Cedar Rapids.  One cell, just north of me, has strengthened and is moving through far northern CR and Hiawatha.  I can see some nice lightning.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Switched to mostly pingers here now. Might be stuck in frozen/freezing precip for a while, radar shows the boundary sinking back south. On this day to appreciate everything Earth, mother nature sure is giving me a show! A rumble of thunder might be too much more to ask for...

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The Cedar Rapids airport hit 79º this afternoon.  We really soared after noon when the showers and clouds cleared.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Attm, it is 33F w light snow and rain mix. A trace fell and whiten up grassy surfaces , rooftops and car tops. It was coming at a moderate rate. Wow! Quite a scene.

 

Btw: Detroit broke a record today for record chill. Record low high of 38F. Old record was 40F set back in 1893. Impressive cold airmass for late April.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You looking outside Niko?!?! Biggest flakes I have seen in a long time! Full on silver dollars pouring down. Absolutely gorgeous!

Yep....I was cleaning out my garage at that time and it sure was ripping. Wild stuff! Finally a month w BN temps. Just wish we had these BN temps back in Winter.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Got up to 78° here this afternoon. Not bad at all.

 

Received 0.02” of rain this morning.

Man, a whole different world here in MBY.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Getting moderate sleet. 42.8*F.

No sleet here. Just moderate wet snow to light drizzle. Ground is white. Except for roads. Crazy. My high was a very chilly 36F here in Macomb.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yesterday was yet another very cold April day.  With a H/L of 41/24 Grand Rapids tied a record for the low and it was the 4th coldest maximum. We now have 6 days this April that have seen a top 10 for the coldest maximums. At this time the mean for the month is 42.5° that is a departure of -3.9°

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It was a cold morning in Michigan on Wednesday. In the UP Spincich Lake fell to +3. a +6 was reported at Doe Lake. Other lows around Michigan were 14 at Cadillac, 16 at Baldwin, 22 at Ionia, Ludington, Mt Pleasant and here at my house. 24 was the official low at Grand Rapids, Marshall and Muskegon. 25 was the low at Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. With a 26 at Benton Harbor and Holland.  

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The JMA weeklies are in and they look pretty toasty here out west but for the rest of you, esp across the eastern Sub, looks like your going to be stuck where the mean trough is going to set up.

 

Week 2...

 

Y202004.D2212_gl2.png

 

Y202004.D2212_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...a very wet signal may be more widespread as we head into May...

 

 

 

Y202004.D2212_gl2.png

 

 

Y202004.D2212_gl0.png

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The system tracking through the MW/Lower Lakes this weekend that'' bring a "weekend washout" is quite impressive for late April standards.  SLP mb down into the mid 990's???  Easterly winds will be rather strong...

 

 

gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_12.png

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This is the time of year I'm always jealous of Nebraska.  it's always a good 10 degrees warmer there than in Eastern Iowa.  I'm assuming we have enough influence from the Great Lakes that it keeps temps down over here.  I see there is a trough setting up shop in the northeast and that certainly is playing a role in it as well, but the plains consistently warm up much more this time of year than we do further to the east. I'd love to be basking in some 70s soon. 

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It is still cold w temps hovering in the upper 30s. My temps are running a good 25 to 30 Degrees BN. If this were in the heart of Winter now, then, I would be looking at high temps between 0 to 10F. Oh well, what can you do. It is what it is!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So much for the mostly-sunny day the NWS predicted, and still has in the latest forecast.  A layer of dense stratus has been parked over much of east-central and northeast Iowa all day.

 

I picked up 0.27" of rain last evening.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cloudy skies attm w temps still running BN. Currently at 40F. A few flurries here and there. Just incredible.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Iowa City is reporting 68 and Cedar Rapids 58.  My thermometer shows 71, but it always runs a couple degrees warm for some reason.

 

I don’t really trust thermometers without a radiation shield of some sort even if it’s in the shade, because of reflected light or heat off of the house, depending which way the wind blows from. My Davis wx station is out in the open, but still really accurate especially when there is a breeze. I could’ve gotten one with a little solar powered fan for more accuracy during the daytime, but it seems accurate enough with just a radiation shield. My other run of the mill thermometers seem a bit warm at times too.
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This is the time of year I'm always jealous of Nebraska.  it's always a good 10 degrees warmer there than in Eastern Iowa.  I'm assuming we have enough influence from the Great Lakes that it keeps temps down over here.  I see there is a trough setting up shop in the northeast and that certainly is playing a role in it as well, but the plains consistently warm up much more this time of year than we do further to the east. I'd love to be basking in some 70s soon.

 

At least it doesn’t look as cool and wet here as further east, but still maybe more active and not as dry as further west.
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An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued here for Sun as temps soar into the low 100's (100F-107F) starting this weekend through next Thursday.  We may finish off this heat wave with a couple new records being broken (Sun 102F and Thu 105F).  IF we hit 105F next Thu, that would tie the all-time record high during the month of April.  Let's make history.

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An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued here for Sun as temps soar into the low 100's (100F-107F) starting this weekend through next Thursday. We may finish off this heat wave with a couple new records being broken (Sun 102F and Thu 105F). IF we hit 105F next Thu, that would tie the all-time record high during the month of April. Let's make history.

Meanwhile, on the "yang" side of things down here in okie land, I dont have a single high over 74° per NWS at this time.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=218&y=89&site=tsa&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=218&map_y=89

This is insane.

 

Volatile summer and high Midwest heat demand incoming.

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Meanwhile, on the "yang" side of things down here in okie land, I dont have a single high over 74° per NWS at this time.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=218&y=89&site=tsa&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=218&map_y=89

This is insane.

 

Volatile summer and high Midwest heat demand incoming.

I'm starting to think that your region will be quite wet as we roll into Summer.  Next month looks very wet.  "Ring of Fire" pattern looks to be rather exciting this year for parts of the Plains and into the MW/GL's region.  The west/sw ridge looks like it is starting the Summer trend IMO and locks in for summer pattern.  Talking to local folks here and from their experience once the heat comes in late April/May it usually is a sign of an early and hot summer.  Yesterday's Euro Weeklies and the CFSv2 weeklies both showing a similar pattern across the CONUS.

 

On a side note, I've been watching Solar activity this year and it has been eerily quite to start 2020:

 

 

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 19 days

2020 total: 89 days (77%)

2019 total: 281 days (77%)

2018 total: 221 days (61%)

 

There have already been several long stretches of spotless days and when the streaks are broken they are relatively weak sun spots.  This next Solar cycle may be one of the weakest we've seen in centuries.  Looking out towards next Autumn/Winter (ya, I'm already peaking) most of the climate models are seeing a lot of high lat blocking.  Low Solar = High Lat Blocking???  Yes, please....hopefully we finally have a La Nina pattern and SLOW down the PAC jet and "Make a Great Winter" for next season.  While its nice to see that we have a La Nina brewing, I don't have much confidence in the modeling suggesting blocking over the Arctic regions that far out.  

 

Any-who, enjoy the 70's and warm weather...as I write this, the sun is just about to rise up over the mountains in the distance as another gorgeous morning is taking progress.  Current temp 66F, slight breeze and clear skies...God Bless!

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I'm starting to think that your region will be quite wet as we roll into Summer. Next month looks very wet. "Ring of Fire" pattern looks to be rather exciting this year for parts of the Plains and into the MW/GL's region. The west/sw ridge looks like it is starting the Summer trend IMO and locks in for summer pattern. Talking to local folks here and from their experience once the heat comes in late April/May it usually is a sign of an early and hot summer. Yesterday's Euro Weeklies and the CFSv2 weeklies both showing a similar pattern across the CONUS.

 

On a side note, I've been watching Solar activity this year and it has been eerily quite to start 2020:

 

 

There have already been several long stretches of spotless days and when the streaks are broken they are relatively weak sun spots. This next Solar cycle may be one of the weakest we've seen in centuries. Looking out towards next Autumn/Winter (ya, I'm already peaking) most of the climate models are seeing a lot of high lat blocking. Low Solar = High Lat Blocking??? Yes, please....hopefully we finally have a La Nina pattern and SLOW down the PAC jet and "Make a Great Winter" for next season. While its nice to see that we have a La Nina brewing, I don't have much confidence in the modeling suggesting blocking over the Arctic regions that far out.

 

Any-who, enjoy the 70's and warm weather...as I write this, the sun is just about to rise up over the mountains in the distance as another gorgeous morning is taking progress. Current temp 66F, slight breeze and clear skies...God Bless!

I'm thinking the same thing, honestly, about my region. There should be a retrogression in the southern pattern here in a couple of weeks and after I make it through the storm season flare up that will come (pull back into my region) with it.

 

Lots of rain to cool dry fronts blasting through periodically is my call basically so it's in line with your thoughts. I like the look of a short summer this season with the descent into that weak Nina flavor. I think -0.3° to -0.6° is a good long lead forecast right now but knowing that's with a 45 percent chance of neutral right now so only slightly favoring a Niña event.

 

....and yessir! 3rd year low solar plus giant warm pools in the North and South Pacific is very interesting indeed. I'm with you, I do believe the variables you described will and are currently "slowing" the weather pattern back down in a lot of ways. Starting to Remember some old storm setups and patterns from the early 2ks and early 1990s that look similar.

 

I'll add a factor in as well. There's been a lot of massive heat exchanges between the tropics and polar regions in the last couple of years. Massive record breaking blocking but of a tropical nature. So in some cases reading +AO as an absence of Arctic blocking may also be looked at in terms instead of presences of blocking in other latitudes that we don't yet have a synchronous stat line for.

 

This pendulum is going to swing "bigly" when the blocking regions reach the top of the globe. This may happen in a 2009 or 13 fashion as indicated by some of the forecasts.

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Today temps should be a little milder but still BN. Highs projected to be in the upper 50s. Currently at 44F under cloudy skies.  The whole month of April will be BN tempwise.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It looks like 2 rainmakers are coming. One ova the weekend and the 2nd one early next week. I'd tell ya, the track is perfect for a Winterstorm had it been Winter. Oh well. Looks like my grass can use a little water from Ma Nature. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I picked up 0.29" of rain this morning.  It appears that may be all we get until Mon/Tue.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is three straight days with thick stratus locked into east-central Iowa for the first half of the day.  Today, it appears it will last all day.  The temp goes nowhere under thick stratus.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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