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April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW


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You are going to make sure next month torches, lol.

I sincerely hope not.

 

Btw..re-load May 11th! It’s been so long since we’ve seen a pattern this dynamic advertised so late into the spring.

 

tCadCRR.png

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GFS does undercut the ridge pretty quickly... but that assumes the ridge actual builds in the first place which I am still doubting.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Agree with all of the above. At a certain range it just becomes a meaningless blob of comforting colors. All the details of differering solutions are lost. You could technically have 24 colder ensemble members and 26 warmer ones and the mean maps would probably spit out a wash of light orange over the west that looks sort of like a ridge if you don't know what you're looking at.

 

Also, SIDE NOTE, I believe Euro spaghetti charts for particular locations are available somewhere. I've seen Mark Nelsen post them before, and even other members here.

This.

 

And I know there’s a similar EPS product available on weather.us but it’s paywalled.

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This.

 

And I know there’s a similar EPS product available on weather.us but it’s paywalled.

 

And yet... strong cold signals usually end up being cold and strong warm signals end up being warm.

 

I post plenty of cold EPS maps in the long range and it usually works out that way in reality.   Its often a pretty good guide.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, that seemed to be the period where the global climate really turned the corner away from the 19th century/LIA hangover regime.

 

Then of course there was another relative cool down from the mid 1940s thru the 70s. Followed by the current modern warming regime. Part of me wonders if we could ever see another couple decade bump down at some point, even with a multi-decadal warming trend continuing in the background, but the 2007-12 negative PDO period was sadly the best we have been able to muster thus far.

 

The generally +PDO and weak ENSO forcing with a rapidly warming globe does sound an awful lot like the last 6-7 years, though. Just oscillating about what is now a much warmer mean than 80-100 years ago.

If you consider the mechanism through which ENSO changes global temperature (changes to heat flow and compartmentalization/budgeting within the ocean-atmosphere circulatory system), and then consider similar behavior occurs on much longer timescales, it should not be a surprise that, yes, future multidecadal swings in climate (whether cooling or further warming) are essentially guaranteed. Systemic thermal inertia/capacity is far too high, and there are so many conduits through which the system regulates its energy budget (changes to patterns of convection and wind in the tropics being one of more significant ones), it’s almost impossible to model or project dynamically. That much I’ve learned..and only recently.

 

All climate changes in history are technically cycles of variability superimposed on lower frequency cycles of variability, and so on. The current cycle is no exception and is not special just because we’re the ones living within it.

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If you consider the mechanism through which ENSO changes global temperature (changes to heat flow and compartmentalization/budgeting within the ocean-atmosphere circulatory system), and then consider similar behavior occurs on much longer timescales, it should not be a surprise that, yes, future multidecadal swings in climate (whether cooling or further warming) are essentially guaranteed.

All climate changes in history are technically cycles of variability superimposed on lower frequency cycles of variability, and so on. The current cycle is no exception and is not special just because we’re the ones living within it.

I figured as much.

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If you consider the mechanism through which ENSO changes global temperature (changes to heat flow and compartmentalization/budgeting within the ocean-atmosphere circulatory system), and then consider similar behavior occurs on much longer timescales, it should not be a surprise that, yes, future multidecadal swings in climate (whether cooling or further warming) are essentially guaranteed.

 

All climate changes in history are technically cycles of variability superimposed on lower frequency cycles of variability, and so on. The current cycle is no exception and is not special just because we’re the ones living within it.

So the world is NOT going to end in 12 years?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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If you are cheering for a cold May... the thing you really have to hope does not happen is Jim coming back on here screaming about frosty nights and historically cold patterns.     That is truly the kiss of death.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anyone watch the new Michael Moore movie “Planet of the Humans”?

 

Got totally slammed by certain environmental groups for exposing some of the corruption and hypocrisy of the modern green movement, and the narrow minded dogmatism of what the climate change debate has become. Once I saw that I knew I had to see it. Like him or not the dude is a truth telling mother******.

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0.03” of rain today. Dry month.

 

 

Looks like the Cedar Lake station ended up around 5 inches for the month... 8 inches is normal.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anyone watch the new Michael Moore movie “Planet of the Humans”?

 

Got totally slammed by certain environmental groups for exposing some of the corruption and hypocrisy of the modern green movement, and the narrow minded dogmatism of what the climate change debate has become. Once I saw that I knew I had to see it. Like him or not the dude is a truth telling mother******.

Well, now I’m definitely gonna watch it.

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Cool evening. Down to 41 under clear skies. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Anyone watch the new Michael Moore movie “Planet of the Humans”?

 

Got totally slammed by certain environmental groups for exposing some of the corruption and hypocrisy of the modern green movement, and the narrow minded dogmatism of what the climate change debate has become. Once I saw that I knew I had to see it. Like him or not the dude is a truth telling mother******.

Greta will not be pleased.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Close to 1.4” here. Normal is 2.8”.

 

 

Relatively close to the same departure in terms of percentage.    

 

The Snoqualmie Falls station which is about the same distance from here as Cedar Lake in the other direction ended up at 2.53 inches and normal is 4.47.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, that seemed to be the period where the global climate really turned the corner away from the 19th century/LIA hangover regime.

 

Then of course there was another relative cool down from the mid 1940s thru the 70s. Followed by the current modern warming regime. Part of me wonders if we could ever see another couple decade bump down at some point, even with a multi-decadal warming trend continuing in the background, but the 2007-12 negative PDO period was sadly the best we have been able to muster thus far.

 

The generally +PDO and weak ENSO forcing with a rapidly warming globe does sound an awful lot like the last 6-7 years, though. Just oscillating about what is now a much warmer mean than 80-100 years ago.

 

There've been some similarities for sure the last few years, just in a watered down sense. From a national perspective, I don't think something like 1935-36 would be possible nowadays.

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There've been some similarities for sure the last few years, just in a watered down sense. From a national perspective, I don't think something like 1935-36 would be possible nowadays.

Everything is possible. Things can change quickly. If its happened before it will happen again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There've been some similarities for sure the last few years, just in a watered down sense. From a national perspective, I don't think something like 1935-36 would be possible nowadays.

 

I suppose February 2019 and October 2019 were solidly cold in a sustained manner we haven't seen for awhile. And of course there have been our PNW "Dust Bowl Jr" summers of 2015, 2017 and 2018 thrown in the mix. As well as our most honest to goodness cold winter of the last quarter century in 2016-17.

 

Sort of the Western Family version of dynamism.

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Finally got to look at it outside of the rhetoric filter on here, and the 00Z GFS was a very decent run.

Was hoping it was enough to bring Jim back.... not yet it appears.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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