April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a clean cut off with this front... models don't even show a c-zone behind it.   This afternoon should be pretty nice and tomorrow looks perfect for outdoor activities and yard work.      

[MossMan]

Currently cloudy, windy, and 49 degrees.

.03” so far on the day, 1.64” on the month, and 26.22” on the year.

[El_Nina]

Already up to 0.23" here this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like a clean cut off with this front... models don't even show a c-zone behind it. This afternoon should be pretty nice and tomorrow looks perfect for outdoor activities and yard work.

Nothing like enjoying the sun and fresh air after some rain. Glad the timing worked out well for most of the weekend to be nice. Planning on heading out to the Gorge tomorrow with the family.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re getting some pretty big time dumpage on the backside of this front.

[Blizzard777]

Recent GFS and EURO runs have been showing rain at some point basically every day for the next 10 days. Quite the inverse of last spring...we had no rainfall in the final week of April and the first half of May last year a record 21 day dry streak.

Models definitely showing a wet wet trend.....hope Oregon can partake 

[Jesse]

Nothing like enjoying the sun and fresh air after some rain. Glad the timing worked out well for most of the weekend to be nice. Planning on heading out to the Gorge tomorrow with the family.

Hope you aren’t planning to get out of the car much. Basically all trailheads and parking areas are currently closed out there.

[TacomaWaWx]

Models definitely showing a wet wet trend.....hope Oregon can partake

 

That’d be nice...I think we’re right about average for the calendar year in this area in terms of rainfall. January and early February were pretty wet but it’s been leaning towards drier weather since then. Nice to get some decent wet weather...maybe we will even get a decent convective set up during this pattern if we’re lucky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking forward to dry weekends ahead. 

[Jesse]

Looking forward to dry weekends ahead. 

 

The back edge of this weekend is looking fairly dry.

[Jesse]

Up to .25 of rain here. Temperature is 55 with light rain currently.

 

Had a low of 50 this morning which was my first 50+ low of the year. Although that might not make it to midnight.

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.47” this morning...about half of that came during a decent burst on the back edge of the front. 1.55” of rain for the month now.

[TT-SEA]

.37 in just the last hour at SEA and .56 this morning.

 

Racing towards normal rainfall for April after such a dry first 20 days.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and windy now. 0.18” of rain.

[MossMan]

Looks like a clean cut off with this front... models don't even show a c-zone behind it. This afternoon should be pretty nice and tomorrow looks perfect for outdoor activities and yard work.

Sorry but you are not a true northwesterner unless you thrive on constant warm front drizzle...Day after day after day after day. What is wrong with you??

[Jesse]

Sunny and windy now. 0.18” of rain.

 

Yeah a pretty fast moving front all things considered. Would be nice to get a real soaker with one of these systems.

 

Up to .30" here on the day with light rain continuing.

[Jesse]

Sorry but you are not a true northwesterner unless you thrive on constant warm front drizzle...Day after day after day after day. What is wrong with you??

 

I'm looking forward to some sunshine tomorrow. The problem with you two is your actual views are so extreme it's impossible to imagine people could actually like sun and rain pretty equally.

[TT-SEA]

I'm looking forward to some sunshine tomorrow. The problem with you two is your actual views are so extreme it's impossible to imagine people could actually like sun and rain pretty equally.

 

OMG... who cares.   I don't care if you love rain every single day or want it to be below freezing every night all summer or love 100-degree heat.

 

You just want enemies and a fight.   

[Jesse]

Pretty consistently cool and wet on the 12z ensembles. But by this time of year warm and sunny breaks can be expected even in a generally active pattern. So a nice mix.

 

[Jesse]

Sort of crazy how the ridgy period early next week collapsed. I remember it looking like we could make a run at 80 toward the end of the month for awhile there. Now may be hard pressed to approach 70.

 

If PDX doesn't hit 80 by May 6, it will be our latest such occurrence since 2011. There has been a lot of mid-spring warmth in recent years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how the greenery is exploding with these wet days and mild nights. 

[Jesse]

Amazing how the greenery is exploding with these wet days and mild nights.

 

It has really been visually stunning out there the last couple days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some strong post frontal showers moving NE into the southern sound and SW interior. Getting breezy as well, 56 degrees and raining currently.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hope you aren’t planning to get out of the car much. Basically all trailheads and parking areas are currently closed out there.

I know, the family just wants to get out of the house and take a drive, enjoy the beautiful scenery of the Gorge and Columbia River. Get some food and ice cream on the way.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Back edge of the main frontal band is about to pass through here. Looks like some lines of heavy showers up toward Kelso behind the front. Would be nice if something made it down here.

 

Currently up to 59 with mild SW winds.

[TT-SEA]

It hard for me to determine over what time range does being within normal rainfall amounts matter.

 

Daily? Certainly not.

 

Weekly? Maybe for plants and growing berries in the spring and summer?

 

Monthly? By season? By rain year?

 

I guess my question is how does timing of rain distribution matter? What impacts do daily rain have in winter vs a dry month then a very wet month if the totals in the end are the same? Maybe it’s what impact the rain has that is important to you is what would impact what rain stats are useful to track? (Snowpack vs. watering plants vs. wildfires)

 

Don't know... but this has been a very streaky year.    Long dry spells and long wet spells.    

[Phil]

Tropical forcing and AAM cycles are predictive.

 

There’s big time troughing in the pipeline. Heavy bout of EHEM/IO forcing coming up, AAM removal/deposition from all the right sources and propagation at all the right latitudes. Models might not see it now, since we’re looking at a late month inception of the new pattern, but not even Tim’s weather machine can stop this one.

 

Until then, enjoy the ridging.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Jesse]

It hard for me to determine over what time range does being within normal rainfall amounts matter.

Daily? Certainly not.

Weekly? Maybe for plants and growing berries in the spring and summer?

Monthly? By season? By rain year?

I guess my question is how does timing of rain distribution matter? What impacts do daily rain have in winter vs a dry month then a very wet month if the totals in the end are the same? Maybe it’s what impact the rain has that is important to you is what would impact what rain stats are useful to track? (Snowpack vs. watering plants vs. wildfires)

These are all great discussion topics and things I think about too. Average isn’t just some magical number and when you hit that or above (especially on a long time scale) nature is all good. Frequency and distribution of rainfall are probably even more important. You could have a well above average rainfall year on paper whose numbers are beefed up by a couple wintertime AR events, but was mostly dry the rest of the time.

 

Even though that year appeared to be above average, there could still be disastrous affects on snow pack, native vegetation and wildfire prospects. It could for all practical purposes even behave like a drought year despite technically being a "wetter than average" year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Yeah, I always stop by there. They are huge and yummy.

 

Yeah I have been pushing for them to serve meat flavored ice cream for years but still no luck.

[TT-SEA]

Agreed. I’m not specifically pointing out your stat, but I see a lot of rain stats here compared to historical norms of various scales and I haven’t quite figured out what comparisons are impactful to the PNW and which see just statistical fun comparisons with minimal impact.

Yeah... it goes both ways too.

 

2019 was dry overall in our area but the summer was quite cloudy and wet and the fire season was almost non-existent and we did not need to water the entire summer for the first time in 15 years. We had almost double the normal number of days with rain in July-Sept period.

 

2017 was a wet year but it was terribly dry and smoky that summer.

[Jesse]

 

Hard to believe we could have another +ENSO year on the way.

[Phil]

Probably overdone.

[Phil]

Hard to believe we could have another +ENSO year on the way.

Hard not to call last winter a weak niño.

 

For all intents and purposes, it was one.

[Jesse]

Hard not to call last winter a weak niño.

For all intents and purposes, it was one.

I was mostly making fun of the whatever the CFS says the opposite will be true meme.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.40" of rain so far today. About an inch and a half in the past week, which is about average. Up to about 35% of average for the month. May could be wet. 

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

Strong C-Zone firing up north of Everett...some strong showers to the south of Tacoma too. Up to 0.49” today and it’s sunny now. Breezy SW winds too.