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April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW


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I find it interesting that our snowpack is doing so well despite a huge lack in total moisture over the season.

 

Really hasn't been a lot of sustained warm weather since early February. And the precip we have gotten since has come with negative height/upper level temp anomalies.

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Got down to 30 this morning. A bit chillier than I was expecting. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ensembles are nothing to be upset about. 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Really hasn't been a lot of sustained warm weather since early February. And the precip we have gotten since has come with negative height/upper level temp anomalies.

I wonder how having all that snow in the mountains but lacking moisture down low will effect our drought.
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Beautiful morning... hope the trees finally start really leafing out this week.   There is still a little left over hail in the yard.

20200404-084005.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z GFS is nice. Good weather next week, turning much cooler by the weekend. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I wonder how having all that snow in the mountains but lacking moisture down low will effect our drought.

C9C6C910-9827-458B-B94C-B0B0F158C83A.gif

 

Soil moisture is only slightly below avg in the Willamette Valley. Combine this with above average snowpack in the Hood and Willamette basins and I don’t see much of a reason to sound the drought alarm this early. Mainly CA has to worry about drought right now.

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Some light snow here late on the 14th. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_43.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That is a BEAUTIFUL trough around the 15th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Got down to 33 with some snow overnight. Had a little slush on the deck this am. Currently 39 degrees with peeks of sun.

.09” on the day, .39” on the month, 24.97” on the year.

Looking forward to a warm up. We are due up here.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I don't hate the 12z GFS. Would be lots of frost here this month if it were to verify. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I don't hate the 12z GFS. Would be lots of frost here this month if it were to verify.

I wouldn’t worry too much, there could be some runs you even like coming up. The latest GFS ensembles also tone the upcoming ridge down quite a bit.

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Looking like a very enjoybale stretch of weather coming up.  The chances appear to be increasing of a warm ridge sandwiched between two unseasonbly cold troughs.  The last few days have been solidly cold and the coming ridge will feature cold nights in many places.  Even the infamous 1955 had warm spikes sandwiched between the cold troughs in the spring.  Basically the kind of spring I was hoping for.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Warm ups and cool downs, guys. Mark my words.

 

Overall cold theme though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Partly cloudy and a low of 36 here this morning.

 

In spite of our inability to get a night that's clear all the way through all of my mins have been in the 32 to 35 range so far this month.  That looks to continue for the next several days.  We might even sneak in a low or two below 32 depending on clearing.  Tuesday and Wednesday nights look much more clear, but the airmass will be warmer then.

 

For the Puget Sound region most days will have north winds according to the WRF which will keep things on the cool side even during most of the period of ridging.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Heavy wet snow falling. Very big flakes.

 

If just 3 degrees cooler this would be a decent snow event.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hoping that area of precip makes it a little further north than anticipated today. For awhile there tomorrow was looking like there could be a decent deformation zone over the Portland area as well, but now it just looks boring and partly cloudy.

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I find it interesting that our snowpack is doing so well despite a huge lack in total moisture over the season.

 

Yeah, one of the driest Februaries on record, and March was IMO about as dry as 2018.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hey Jesse, PDX hit 38 this morning it appears! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Cool and wet period on the horizon: Why can't we get a mix of rainy days and sunny days, that would make everyone happy. It's all I ask.

 

Warmer period on the horizon: I will accept nothing less than 7-10 consecutive days of warm and dry weather, hopefully more.

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Hey Jesse, PDX hit 38 this morning it appears! 

 

#ColdAnomaliesAreBack :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Cool and wet period on the horizon: Why can't we get a mix of rainy days and sunny days, that would make everyone happy. It's all I ask.

 

Warmer period on the horizon: I will accept nothing less than 7-10 consecutive days of warm and dry weather, hopefully more.

Good Lord. So silly.

 

Nature does not give a flying f*ck what any of us "accept". I just take whatever nice weather comes and appreciate it.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Too bad the models are 33 by covid-19.

That was for the very upper levels.

 

The models have seemed pretty good lately overall. With the usual amplified pattern issues we always see where slight differences make huge changes between runs. That always seems to happen. January is a great example.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The wild run to run swings on the EURO have been pretty crazy lately. Lack of data due to the drop in flights is probably partially to blame.

 

Doesn't seem that bad to me. Its been pretty consistent in building an EPAC ridge late next week for a while now. Exact ridge location is moving around a bit as expected 6+ days out. GFS is the one waffling around.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Doesn't seem that bad to me. Its been pretty consistent in building an EPAC ridge late next week for a while now. Exact ridge location is moving around a bit as expected 6+ days out. GFS is the one waffling around.

Agree.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Doesn't seem that bad to me. Its been pretty consistent in building an EPAC ridge late next week for a while now. Exact ridge location is moving around a bit as expected 6+ days out. GFS is the one waffling around.

 

GFS has been pretty consistent with a shallow shortwave dropping in from the NW toward the weekend. EURO has shown everything from deep troughing to sharp ridging over us in the same period.

 

Obviously neither model is perfect, I think all models have been struggling more than usual due to the lack of data. But it seems like the Euro has been waffling more for that period in particular. Just based on my perception.

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