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Easter Sunday Winter Storm???


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While the calendar says its April, mother nature does not look to be so kind for some folks during this holiday weekend.  We might be seeing a full blown winter storm take shape across the heartland of the nation along with a big risk for Severe Weather down south.

 

Let's discuss...

 

00z Euro shifted South this run along with the EPS....

 

 

 

00z GEFS pretty similar with the snow shield...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_132.png

 

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Its nice to have a storm to track during these difficult times...sorta bonds us all together, right??

Merry Christmas, from MN.

Still some very light snow at times but I’m going with a final total of 5.5”. Not a bad way to end the snow season, if this truly is the end.

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OAX discussion

 

The longer range models change the rain to snow over quicker with accumulating snow becoming more probable. The GEFS plumes continue to show a range of accumulations of 2 to 8 inches with the higher accumulations in bands. Strong north winds gusting to 50 mph becomes problematic with the rain changing to snow. Those with travel plans should pay attention to the forecast for Easter Sunday related to this developing storm and the potential for winter related headlines/impacts to travel and power. Highs Sunday were lowered to the 30s and 40s

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The ICON is holding steady with a bit farther nw snow band.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a very clear trend toward slowing the southern energy over the last two days of GFS runs.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is certainly farther southeast than the ICON.  We would get some snow, but the system doesn't really blow up until it's well into the lakes.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK is also holding nw.  Without really analyzing the setup, I would naturally tend to side with the nw track.  I would not be surprised if today's Euro inched back nw.

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Those of us in southeast Iowa would need the northern wave to dig a bit farther south rather than swing eastward as models currently show.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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At this point, we are all going to be stuck inside on Easter Sunday anyway... might as well throw in a few inches of snow to whiten things up outside for a day or so. 

 

These early-mid April storm systems can produce some isolated "high-end" snow accumulations where the heaviest bands end up setting up. If nothing else this gives us something interesting to watch weather-wise over the next few days. 

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The link is dead.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Haha Des Moines is calling the GFS the winner. You dont hear that too often.

 

Confidence increasing in a wintry system to impact Iowa through this

weekend. Run-to-run consistency in long-range models is starting to

increase to where confidence has gone from `low` at this time

yesterday to `low-medium` in terms of track/timing/impacts/etc. It

seems the operational GFS is the "winner" of the long-range

models in that the ECMWF and other long-range models have trended

towards its solution over the past few runs. In terms of the GFS

trend, it has slowly been strengthening the core of the low slated

to pass through the area. This would, of course, lead towards a

lean to higher winds on the backside for Sunday, and higher QPF.

 

Temperatures obviously warm enough to keep p-type as rain for

Saturday. Models forecasting a few hundred joules of CAPE nearing

southern Iowa... with cloud depths/thicknesses high, thunder has

been added to southern Iowa for Saturday PM... with the severe

threat being effectively nil as there is not a sufficient parameter

space to justify severe weather wording.

 

For Saturday night into Sunday, cold air will begin infiltrating

Iowa from NW-->SE as a strong boundary looks to push across the

state. As with the previous system, there may be a notable

temperature gradient, with temperatures on the "warm" side in the

mid to upper 40s, and temperatures on the "cold" side in the low to

mid 30s. The vertical wind profile looks to be very impressive, with

forecast soundings indicating 35kt winds already down to 1kft in

central Iowa by Sunday PM. Frontogenetical forcing is very strong,

and given the degree of saturation, precip --> snow seeming

plausible. As we have seen with the past few systems, road

temperatures this time of year usually make it into the mid 30s by

10 am or so at the latest. So any snow would likely melt from the

pavement, and only accumulate on grassy surfaces and tree branches.

So, adverse impacts would be due to visibility reduction. If there

is snow with 25 to 35 mph winds, could easily see periods of 1 mile

vsbys possible. At this time, confidence too low to confidently lock

onto specifics in mesoscale details... but this will need to be

watched. A winter weather headline or wind advisory headline cannot

be ruled out.

 

Precip may linger in NE/eastern Iowa through Sunday night. If trends

continue to slow, obviously this would then linger longer...

potentially impacting Monday morning commute.

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Looks like the bulk of the snow will miss me to the north. And yes, I have said that one time or another every month since October.

  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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I'm kind of doubtful if much would actually accumulate at all. Looks to be falling mostly in the middle of the day with temps around 31-32. There would have to be pretty heavy rates to get more than a dusting. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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00z ICON is a bit southeast.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_29.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The NAM appears to keep the two waves a bit more separated than the ICON.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK has a better phase.  It still has the lead northern band of snow, but now shows a second defo zone band firing over eastern Iowa and lifting northeastward.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK has a better phase.  It still has the lead northern band of snow, but now shows a second defo zone band firing over eastern Iowa and lifting northeastward.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Wow and  thought the GEM was bad for eastern Nebraska, then you post this! Lol.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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00z UK has a better phase.  It still has the lead northern band of snow, but now shows a second defo zone band firing over eastern Iowa and lifting northeastward.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Really bombs the low as well

 

970 in MI and sub 980 in IN

 

Also looks like a huge tornado outbreak possible in the Deep South. Some of the soundings in LA/MS/AL are insane and covers a lot of area

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Not saying this will play out but here is part of today's discussion from GRR.

 

"-VERY SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY--  

 
WITH VERY GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY FOR THIS EVENT, WE ARE THINKING  
A HIGH WIND WARNING MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE  
GEFS-M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL FOR THE BELOW 980 MB LOW CENTER,  
FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE HURON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, IS OUTSIDE  
THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE PERIOD (THAT MEANS A SYSTEM THAT DEEP HAS NOT  
HAPPENED IN THE PAST 30 YEARS IN THAT AREA, AT THIS TIME OF  
YEAR). THE ECMWF 00Z RUN IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE  
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT HAS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE  
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE ECMWF 18Z ENSEMBLE MEAN  
SUPPORTS THE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH MONDAY."

 

If this plays out we would be looking a massive spring storm, more like a November type storm. Will have to look and see where the April 30th 1984 storm ended up being that would be one to look at.

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