Easter Sunday Winter Storm???

[Tom 16887]

While the calendar says its April, mother nature does not look to be so kind for some folks during this holiday weekend.  We might be seeing a full blown winter storm take shape across the heartland of the nation along with a big risk for Severe Weather down south.

 

Let's discuss...

 

00z Euro shifted South this run along with the EPS....

 

 

 

00z GEFS pretty similar with the snow shield...

 

 

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Go with the EPS mean. Those amounts on the Euro are ridiculous. Looking at the change in snow depth would probably give a more accurate total.

[james1976 3976]

Pretty good agreement there.with the ensembles. Definitely not buying the Euro OP

[CentralNebWeather 4714]

NWS Hastings keeps saying models are getting colder and snowier. They are even mentioning several inches, at least, of snow with 50 mph winds. More updates coming and waiting to issue any headlines.

[FarmerRick 211]

OAX discussion

 

The longer range models change the rain to snow over quicker with accumulating snow becoming more probable. The GEFS plumes continue to show a range of accumulations of 2 to 8 inches with the higher accumulations in bands. Strong north winds gusting to 50 mph becomes problematic with the rain changing to snow. Those with travel plans should pay attention to the forecast for Easter Sunday related to this developing storm and the potential for winter related headlines/impacts to travel and power. Highs Sunday were lowered to the 30s and 40s

[Hawkeye 4600]

The ICON is holding steady with a bit farther nw snow band.

[Money 1429]

Icon gets the low down to 971 in western MI

[CentralNebWeather 4714]

The ICON is holding steady with a bit farther nw snow band.

Has a heavy band over my county. If this verifies with 50 mph winds, would be looking at blizzard type conditions. Still several days away. Good news is basically everyone is home.

[Hawkeye 4600]

There is a very clear trend toward slowing the southern energy over the last two days of GFS runs.

[Hawkeye 4600]

The GFS is certainly farther southeast than the ICON.  We would get some snow, but the system doesn't really blow up until it's well into the lakes.

 

[james1976 3976]

That's a lot of territory

[james1976 3976]

DMX is already talking the possibility of several inches of snow with winds 45-50mph

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Each model essentially sticking to their previous runs so far. 12z ICon and GEM are west. GFS is way east. Nice late-season battle shaping up.

[Tom 16887]

Its nice to have a storm to track during these difficult times...sorta bonds us all together, right??

[Clinton 4427]

Not sure what my fruit trees will think about this since they are blooming.

[james1976 3976]

I'm in the bullseye. What could go wrong lol

[Hawkeye 4600]

UK is also holding nw.  Without really analyzing the setup, I would naturally tend to side with the nw track.  I would not be surprised if today's Euro inched back nw.

 

[CentralNebWeather 4714]

Euro at 72 hours, 993 low in Oklahoma Panhandle

[St Paul Storm 4028]

UK is also holding nw.  Without really analyzing the setup, I would naturally tend to side with the nw track.  I would not be surprised if today's Euro inched back nw.

 

Good call. Looks like a little tick NW on the Euro.

[bud2380 3520]

Euro

 

[Hawkeye 4600]

Those of us in southeast Iowa would need the northern wave to dig a bit farther south rather than swing eastward as models currently show.

[GDR 665]

All that stuff can stay north!

[Bryan1117 960]

At this point, we are all going to be stuck inside on Easter Sunday anyway... might as well throw in a few inches of snow to whiten things up outside for a day or so. 

 

These early-mid April storm systems can produce some isolated "high-end" snow accumulations where the heaviest bands end up setting up. If nothing else this gives us something interesting to watch weather-wise over the next few days. 

[james1976 3976]

9" imby? At this time of year go big or nothing!

[Mi_Matthew 233]

So when does the ~500 mile shift SE happen? My guess is the 00z Saturday runs...

[james1976 3976]

I still think it goes NW of me. Prolly TC crush job.

[Madtown 1092]

well riding the se edge

[Hawkeye 4600]

Record cold around here next week.

 

https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1248369450329370624?s=21

 

The link is dead.

[CentralNebWeather 4714]

The link is dead.

Twitter is having issues today, slow and lagging. I’ll try and post it again.

 

https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1248370914644725760?s=21

[james1976 3976]

Haha Des Moines is calling the GFS the winner. You dont hear that too often.

 

Confidence increasing in a wintry system to impact Iowa through this

weekend. Run-to-run consistency in long-range models is starting to

increase to where confidence has gone from `low` at this time

yesterday to `low-medium` in terms of track/timing/impacts/etc. It

seems the operational GFS is the "winner" of the long-range

models in that the ECMWF and other long-range models have trended

towards its solution over the past few runs. In terms of the GFS

trend, it has slowly been strengthening the core of the low slated

to pass through the area. This would, of course, lead towards a

lean to higher winds on the backside for Sunday, and higher QPF.

 

Temperatures obviously warm enough to keep p-type as rain for

Saturday. Models forecasting a few hundred joules of CAPE nearing

southern Iowa... with cloud depths/thicknesses high, thunder has

been added to southern Iowa for Saturday PM... with the severe

threat being effectively nil as there is not a sufficient parameter

space to justify severe weather wording.

 

For Saturday night into Sunday, cold air will begin infiltrating

Iowa from NW-->SE as a strong boundary looks to push across the

state. As with the previous system, there may be a notable

temperature gradient, with temperatures on the "warm" side in the

mid to upper 40s, and temperatures on the "cold" side in the low to

mid 30s. The vertical wind profile looks to be very impressive, with

forecast soundings indicating 35kt winds already down to 1kft in

central Iowa by Sunday PM. Frontogenetical forcing is very strong,

and given the degree of saturation, precip --> snow seeming

plausible. As we have seen with the past few systems, road

temperatures this time of year usually make it into the mid 30s by

10 am or so at the latest. So any snow would likely melt from the

pavement, and only accumulate on grassy surfaces and tree branches.

So, adverse impacts would be due to visibility reduction. If there

is snow with 25 to 35 mph winds, could easily see periods of 1 mile

vsbys possible. At this time, confidence too low to confidently lock

onto specifics in mesoscale details... but this will need to be

watched. A winter weather headline or wind advisory headline cannot

be ruled out.

 

Precip may linger in NE/eastern Iowa through Sunday night. If trends

continue to slow, obviously this would then linger longer...

potentially impacting Monday morning commute.

[mlgamer 514]

Looks like the bulk of the snow will miss me to the north. And yes, I have said that one time or another every month since October.

[St Paul Storm 4028]

MPX says ‘Nothing to see here. Maybe a mix changing to rain on Sunday.’

[snowstorm83 2042]

I'm kind of doubtful if much would actually accumulate at all. Looks to be falling mostly in the middle of the day with temps around 31-32. There would have to be pretty heavy rates to get more than a dusting. 

[St Paul Storm 4028]

That 0z NAM is....interesting. About a 400 mi jump north. Garbage.

[Hawkeye 4600]

00z ICON is a bit southeast.

 

[Money 1429]

Both NAM And Icon gets this sub 980

[Hawkeye 4600]

The NAM appears to keep the two waves a bit more separated than the ICON.

[Money 1429]

GFS is a eastern WI crush job

[Hawkeye 4600]

[Money 1429]

Looks like 2M temps of 28-30 in the brunt of the snowstorm. Probably could take off half of what Kuchera is showing 10-12) and probably say we could see a band of 4-6 in the heaviest areas in this storm

[Craig-OmahaWX 381]

Wow, definitely not liking the GEM model tonight. Its probably the furthest north out of all models. 

[Hawkeye 4600]

00z UK has a better phase.  It still has the lead northern band of snow, but now shows a second defo zone band firing over eastern Iowa and lifting northeastward.

 

[Craig-OmahaWX 381]

00z UK has a better phase.  It still has the lead northern band of snow, but now shows a second defo zone band firing over eastern Iowa and lifting northeastward.

 

Wow and  thought the GEM was bad for eastern Nebraska, then you post this! Lol.

[Money 1429]

00z UK has a better phase.  It still has the lead northern band of snow, but now shows a second defo zone band firing over eastern Iowa and lifting northeastward.

 

Really bombs the low as well

 

970 in MI and sub 980 in IN

 

Also looks like a huge tornado outbreak possible in the Deep South. Some of the soundings in LA/MS/AL are insane and covers a lot of area

[Money 1429]

72 hours out and there’s already 90 on the SEEF tornado ingredient parameters that’s impressive

[snowstorm83 2042]

Wow and  thought the GEM was bad for eastern Nebraska, then you post this! Lol.

Ope

[westMJim 1863]

Not saying this will play out but here is part of today's discussion from GRR.

 

"-VERY SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY--  

 
WITH VERY GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY FOR THIS EVENT, WE ARE THINKING  
A HIGH WIND WARNING MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE  
GEFS-M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL FOR THE BELOW 980 MB LOW CENTER,  
FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE HURON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, IS OUTSIDE  
THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE PERIOD (THAT MEANS A SYSTEM THAT DEEP HAS NOT  
HAPPENED IN THE PAST 30 YEARS IN THAT AREA, AT THIS TIME OF  
YEAR). THE ECMWF 00Z RUN IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE  
50 TO 60 MPH RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT HAS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE  
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE ECMWF 18Z ENSEMBLE MEAN  
SUPPORTS THE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH MONDAY."

 

If this plays out we would be looking a massive spring storm, more like a November type storm. Will have to look and see where the April 30th 1984 storm ended up being that would be one to look at.

[westMJim 1863]

OK here is the reported hourly weather for Grand Rapids on April 30, 1984

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/mi/grand-rapids/KGRR/date/1984-4-30

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Take half of what the models are showing in terms of snowfall just to be more realistic, and then cut it in half again if convection breaks out in the South. Could definitely rob moisture from the cold sector of the storm.

[St Paul Storm 4028]

I see the overnight globals ticked southwest, except the Euro. Rochester crusher. NAMs showing nice hits too.