Tom Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 While the calendar says its April, mother nature does not look to be so kind for some folks during this holiday weekend. We might be seeing a full blown winter storm take shape across the heartland of the nation along with a big risk for Severe Weather down south. Let's discuss... 00z Euro shifted South this run along with the EPS.... 00z GEFS pretty similar with the snow shield... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Go with the EPS mean. Those amounts on the Euro are ridiculous. Looking at the change in snow depth would probably give a more accurate total. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Pretty good agreement there.with the ensembles. Definitely not buying the Euro OP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 NWS Hastings keeps saying models are getting colder and snowier. They are even mentioning several inches, at least, of snow with 50 mph winds. More updates coming and waiting to issue any headlines. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 OAX discussion The longer range models change the rain to snow over quicker with accumulating snow becoming more probable. The GEFS plumes continue to show a range of accumulations of 2 to 8 inches with the higher accumulations in bands. Strong north winds gusting to 50 mph becomes problematic with the rain changing to snow. Those with travel plans should pay attention to the forecast for Easter Sunday related to this developing storm and the potential for winter related headlines/impacts to travel and power. Highs Sunday were lowered to the 30s and 40s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 The ICON is holding steady with a bit farther nw snow band. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Icon gets the low down to 971 in western MI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 The ICON is holding steady with a bit farther nw snow band.Has a heavy band over my county. If this verifies with 50 mph winds, would be looking at blizzard type conditions. Still several days away. Good news is basically everyone is home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 There is a very clear trend toward slowing the southern energy over the last two days of GFS runs. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 The GFS is certainly farther southeast than the ICON. We would get some snow, but the system doesn't really blow up until it's well into the lakes. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 That's a lot of territory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 DMX is already talking the possibility of several inches of snow with winds 45-50mph 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Each model essentially sticking to their previous runs so far. 12z ICon and GEM are west. GFS is way east. Nice late-season battle shaping up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Its nice to have a storm to track during these difficult times...sorta bonds us all together, right?? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Not sure what my fruit trees will think about this since they are blooming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 I'm in the bullseye. What could go wrong lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 UK is also holding nw. Without really analyzing the setup, I would naturally tend to side with the nw track. I would not be surprised if today's Euro inched back nw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Euro at 72 hours, 993 low in Oklahoma Panhandle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 UK is also holding nw. Without really analyzing the setup, I would naturally tend to side with the nw track. I would not be surprised if today's Euro inched back nw. Good call. Looks like a little tick NW on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Those of us in southeast Iowa would need the northern wave to dig a bit farther south rather than swing eastward as models currently show. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 All that stuff can stay north! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 At this point, we are all going to be stuck inside on Easter Sunday anyway... might as well throw in a few inches of snow to whiten things up outside for a day or so. These early-mid April storm systems can produce some isolated "high-end" snow accumulations where the heaviest bands end up setting up. If nothing else this gives us something interesting to watch weather-wise over the next few days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 9" imby? At this time of year go big or nothing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 So when does the ~500 mile shift SE happen? My guess is the 00z Saturday runs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 I still think it goes NW of me. Prolly TC crush job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 well riding the se edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Record cold around here next week. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1248369450329370624?s=21 The link is dead. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 The link is dead.Twitter is having issues today, slow and lagging. I’ll try and post it again. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1248370914644725760?s=21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 9, 2020 Report Share Posted April 9, 2020 Haha Des Moines is calling the GFS the winner. You dont hear that too often. Confidence increasing in a wintry system to impact Iowa through thisweekend. Run-to-run consistency in long-range models is starting toincrease to where confidence has gone from `low` at this timeyesterday to `low-medium` in terms of track/timing/impacts/etc. Itseems the operational GFS is the "winner" of the long-rangemodels in that the ECMWF and other long-range models have trendedtowards its solution over the past few runs. In terms of the GFStrend, it has slowly been strengthening the core of the low slatedto pass through the area. This would, of course, lead towards alean to higher winds on the backside for Sunday, and higher QPF. Temperatures obviously warm enough to keep p-type as rain forSaturday. Models forecasting a few hundred joules of CAPE nearingsouthern Iowa... with cloud depths/thicknesses high, thunder hasbeen added to southern Iowa for Saturday PM... with the severethreat being effectively nil as there is not a sufficient parameterspace to justify severe weather wording. For Saturday night into Sunday, cold air will begin infiltratingIowa from NW-->SE as a strong boundary looks to push across thestate. As with the previous system, there may be a notabletemperature gradient, with temperatures on the "warm" side in themid to upper 40s, and temperatures on the "cold" side in the low tomid 30s. The vertical wind profile looks to be very impressive, withforecast soundings indicating 35kt winds already down to 1kft incentral Iowa by Sunday PM. Frontogenetical forcing is very strong,and given the degree of saturation, precip --> snow seemingplausible. As we have seen with the past few systems, roadtemperatures this time of year usually make it into the mid 30s by10 am or so at the latest. So any snow would likely melt from thepavement, and only accumulate on grassy surfaces and tree branches.So, adverse impacts would be due to visibility reduction. If thereis snow with 25 to 35 mph winds, could easily see periods of 1 milevsbys possible. At this time, confidence too low to confidently lockonto specifics in mesoscale details... but this will need to bewatched. A winter weather headline or wind advisory headline cannotbe ruled out. Precip may linger in NE/eastern Iowa through Sunday night. If trendscontinue to slow, obviously this would then linger longer...potentially impacting Monday morning commute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Looks like the bulk of the snow will miss me to the north. And yes, I have said that one time or another every month since October. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 MPX says ‘Nothing to see here. Maybe a mix changing to rain on Sunday.’ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 I'm kind of doubtful if much would actually accumulate at all. Looks to be falling mostly in the middle of the day with temps around 31-32. There would have to be pretty heavy rates to get more than a dusting. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 That 0z NAM is....interesting. About a 400 mi jump north. Garbage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 00z ICON is a bit southeast. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Both NAM And Icon gets this sub 980 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 The NAM appears to keep the two waves a bit more separated than the ICON. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 GFS is a eastern WI crush job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Looks like 2M temps of 28-30 in the brunt of the snowstorm. Probably could take off half of what Kuchera is showing 10-12) and probably say we could see a band of 4-6 in the heaviest areas in this storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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