Tom 16870 Posted April 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 00z Euro/EPS with a jump NW overnight...seeing a lot of wound up members. The difference between the EPS vs GEFS/GEPS at this range is shaping up to be an interesting battle. Who wins?? 00z GEFS... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Yes please!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 12z NAMs with an apparent left blinker on. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 12z NAMs with an apparent left blinker on.There he is! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 There he is!Don’t worry. I’ll still be tracking this when it smashes your back yard. Rooting for you buddy. I’m hoping this stays south. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 NWS Hastings says a Winter Storm Watch may be issued later today. NAM showing heavy bands through Nebraska. With potential 50 mph wind gusts, Easter Sunday looks very interesting. Preliminary amounts upwards of 4” in the area. Could be higher and lower amounts based on melting and snow bands. Will be tough to measure. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Not liking the NW jump although I've been expecting it. Really do NOT want a cold rain. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OmahaSnowFan 1381 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Omaha going w 1-2” for here. Just like the rest of this god awful winter. Even more annoying is this is happening in April with freezes that are killing my plants. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Does anyone have a snowfall map from 12z GFS? Track looks pretty good for mby but changeover could be an issue. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Does anyone have a snowfall map from 12z GFS? Track looks pretty good for mby but changeover could be an issue.https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020041012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020041012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfsThanks! Looks like a slop fest for me. Heavier stuff just to my north. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Ukie trending NW. Hope the Euro doesn’t follow. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 And the Euro followed. So the GFS is either going to score a coup to end the season, or it’s going to crash and burn again. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 901 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Wind storm! this will devastate Lake Mi shoreline even more... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Knew it was gonna happen. I would MUCH rather have a snowstorm than cold rain but I guess that's how it is. Sucks Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Watches goin up. Another near miss for me. Common theme from last fall already. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 ...Heavy Snow Expected Sunday into Monday... .Heavy snow is expected to fall across parts of the area onSunday into Monday. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour or higherappear possible Sunday afternoon and evening allowing the snow toquickly accumulate. The chance for snowfall amounts of 6 inches ormore appears highest from southern and east central Minnesotainto west central Wisconsin. In addition, this will likely be aheavy, wet snow. Some tree damage and power outages could occur. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 969 Posted April 10, 2020 Report Share Posted April 10, 2020 Right on the edge of the WSW and the high wind warning. So close to a blizzard. As much as I love snow. I'm done I want out. I want my windows open and shut the heat off. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 It's not looking like much snow here. That's ok. I already have to cover some plants several times next week. Snow on the ground would only make it more difficult/tedious. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 NAMs coming in a tick south. Lock it in. Rochester smash job. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SE Wisconsin 157 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 I'm afraid the real issue and headlines with this storm will not be the snow and winter weather but what is shaping up to be a major tornado outbreak in the South. State, county and local governments should communicate to citizens that shelter at home and social distancing orders can and should be ignored if your life is in immanent danger. I'd much rather take my chances with contracting the coronavirus than riding out an EF5 tornado in an inadequate shelter if it comes down to that choice! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Craig-OmahaWX 381 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Well, not much to really write here. Same theme all winter for it to miss the Omaha local area lol. Hopefully we can squeeze out 1-3 inches. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to post Share on other sites
Bryan1117 960 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Well, not much to really write here. Same theme all winter for it to miss the Omaha local area lol. Hopefully we can squeeze out 1-3 inches.I think it’s time to officially put the 2019-20 Winter Season to bed after yet another light, nuisance snowfall. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2024 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Still going to GI on Sunday so should see some action there, but would be nice to add to the sad Lincoln winter lol Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Winter storm watch expanded and now includes the entire TC metro. 4-8” expected with potential for higher amounts but also a very high bust probability on the NW side. Personally I think the convection down south is going to throw a huge wrench into how things play out up here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Wide range of possibilities Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted April 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Winter storm watch expanded and now includes the entire TC metro. 4-8” expected with potential for higher amounts but also a very high bust probability on the NW side. Personally I think the convection down south is going to throw a huge wrench into how things play out up here.I don't necessarily think its the convection, but moreso has to do with the nature of this storm bombing out and wrapping up later rather than earlier. It doesn't really phase with the northern energy until its in the eastern GL's. Nonetheless, a spectacular showcasing of what nature can do so late in the season. Prob going to come close to setting Top 5 record low pressures around the GL's and some nasty winds! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Good luck SPS! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted April 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 00z Euro... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted April 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 00z EPS... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted April 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 NWS WPC 50 & 95 percentile range respectively... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sparky 1770 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 I'm just HAPPY that the snow will stay nw. of here! I'ld much rather have t. storms although they likely will be isolated or scattered here this time Quote ‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3” Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Good luck SPS!Not really rooting for it, but thanks. If it’s gonna snow it’s gonna snow. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 NWS WPC 50 & 95 percentile range respectively...Numerical data is one thing, but seeing those maps makes it UGLY. Ha! Let’s hope this ends up around the 50th as opposed to the 95th. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 SE shift on the NAM and a bit faster 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 I don't necessarily think its the convection, but moreso has to do with the nature of this storm bombing out and wrapping up later rather than earlier. It doesn't really phase with the northern energy until its in the eastern GL's. Nonetheless, a spectacular showcasing of what nature can do so late in the season. Prob going to come close to setting Top 5 record low pressures around the GL's and some nasty winds! It seems next to impossible to get northern and southern waves to properly phase in time to clobber this area in winter, let alone in April. There is always at least one piece of the puzzle that won't cooperate. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 A nugget from MPX: The northern stream shortwave currently seen over southernBritish Columbia will be a key player in where the deformationzone and area of heavier precipitation on the northwest side ofthe surface low sets up. How its character is impacted byprecipitation development downstream of it will ultimatelydetermine where deformation and frontogenesis are maximized. Itsoverall movement is well captured by the numerical guidance, butthere remain differences in where downstream precipitation(particularly convection associated with the southern wave) willdevelop, and this has major implications for where significantlatent heat release (and subsequent erosion/development ofpotential vorticity) will occur. Prefer the ECMWF/EPS handling ofthings overall in comparison to the GFS/GEFS, 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Totals are being decreased around here. Theme of the winter/spring. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bryan1117 960 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Totals are being decreased around here. Theme of the winter/spring.I am hoping that the snow actually stays away at this point, all our peeps up north can have it all... why bother with another dusting to 1” of snow. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 I am hoping that the snow actually stays away at this point, all our peeps up north can have it all... why bother with another dusting to 1” of snow.We have had blizzards the last few April's, and since we were home, was hoping for another. Yeah, a 1" slop fest is just a nuisance imo. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5214 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 High wind watch. I'm not in Nebraska anymore, I don't want to get Nebraska-d by every storm. 1 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 969 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 Jim Flowers saying we could see thunder sleet here. Going to be dicey tomorrow. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 969 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1397191923801453&id=148018328718825 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 11, 2020 Report Share Posted April 11, 2020 4-8” in the point for tomorrow into Monday. 6-10” just east of here. RAP and HRRR looking good so far. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 12, 2020 Report Share Posted April 12, 2020 0z NAMs with a noticeable jog north. Ugh. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted April 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2020 00z Euro...Rochester jackpot... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted April 12, 2020 Report Share Posted April 12, 2020 Accumulating on the trees, grass, rooftops, and deck. Haven’t checked the driveway or roads yet but I would think the snow isn’t sticking there yet based on temps. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted April 12, 2020 Report Share Posted April 12, 2020 Looks like Wausau area is going to get the brunt of it. NAM/Euro both with 16+. Forecast calling for 8-14 in that area Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5214 Posted April 12, 2020 Report Share Posted April 12, 2020 Rochester jackpot...That, like, never happens. Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
gosaints 894 Posted April 12, 2020 Report Share Posted April 12, 2020 wet bulbed to 31 in a hurry Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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