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Easter Sunday Winter Storm???


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00z Euro/EPS with a jump NW overnight...seeing a lot of wound up members.  The difference between the EPS vs GEFS/GEPS at this range is shaping up to be an interesting battle.  Who wins??

 

00z GEFS...

 

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Its nice to have a storm to track during these difficult times...sorta bonds us all together, right??

Merry Christmas, from MN.

Still some very light snow at times but I’m going with a final total of 5.5”. Not a bad way to end the snow season, if this truly is the end.

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NWS Hastings says a Winter Storm Watch may be issued later today. NAM showing heavy bands through Nebraska. With potential 50 mph wind gusts, Easter Sunday looks very interesting. Preliminary amounts upwards of 4” in the area. Could be higher and lower amounts based on melting and snow bands. Will be tough to measure.

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...Heavy Snow Expected Sunday into Monday...

 

.Heavy snow is expected to fall across parts of the area on

Sunday into Monday. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour or higher

appear possible Sunday afternoon and evening allowing the snow to

quickly accumulate. The chance for snowfall amounts of 6 inches or

more appears highest from southern and east central Minnesota

into west central Wisconsin. In addition, this will likely be a

heavy, wet snow. Some tree damage and power outages could occur.

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It's not looking like much snow here.  That's ok.  I already have to cover some plants several times next week.  Snow on the ground would only make it more difficult/tedious.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm afraid the real issue and headlines with this storm will not be the snow and winter weather but what is shaping up to be a major tornado outbreak in the South.  State, county and local governments should communicate to citizens that shelter at home and social distancing orders can and should be ignored if your life is in immanent danger.  I'd much rather take my chances with contracting the coronavirus than riding out an EF5 tornado in an inadequate shelter if it comes down to that choice!  

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Well, not much to really write here. Same theme all winter for it to miss the Omaha local area lol. Hopefully we can squeeze out 1-3 inches.

I think it’s time to officially put the 2019-20 Winter Season to bed after yet another light, nuisance snowfall.

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Winter storm watch expanded and now includes the entire TC metro. 4-8” expected with potential for higher amounts but also a very high bust probability on the NW side. Personally I think the convection down south is going to throw a huge wrench into how things play out up here.

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Winter storm watch expanded and now includes the entire TC metro. 4-8” expected with potential for higher amounts but also a very high bust probability on the NW side. Personally I think the convection down south is going to throw a huge wrench into how things play out up here.

I don't necessarily think its the convection, but moreso has to do with the nature of this storm bombing out and wrapping up later rather than earlier.  It doesn't really phase with the northern energy until its in the eastern GL's.  Nonetheless, a spectacular showcasing of what nature can do so late in the season.  Prob going to come close to setting Top 5 record low pressures around the GL's and some nasty winds!

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I don't necessarily think its the convection, but moreso has to do with the nature of this storm bombing out and wrapping up later rather than earlier.  It doesn't really phase with the northern energy until its in the eastern GL's.  Nonetheless, a spectacular showcasing of what nature can do so late in the season.  Prob going to come close to setting Top 5 record low pressures around the GL's and some nasty winds!

 

It seems next to impossible to get northern and southern waves to properly phase in time to clobber this area in winter, let alone in April.  There is always at least one piece of the puzzle that won't cooperate.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A nugget from MPX:

 

The northern stream shortwave currently seen over southern

British Columbia will be a key player in where the deformation

zone and area of heavier precipitation on the northwest side of

the surface low sets up. How its character is impacted by

precipitation development downstream of it will ultimately

determine where deformation and frontogenesis are maximized. Its

overall movement is well captured by the numerical guidance, but

there remain differences in where downstream precipitation

(particularly convection associated with the southern wave) will

develop, and this has major implications for where significant

latent heat release (and subsequent erosion/development of

potential vorticity) will occur. Prefer the ECMWF/EPS handling of

things overall in comparison to the GFS/GEFS,

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High wind watch. I'm not in Nebraska anymore, I don't want to get Nebraska-d by every storm.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Rochester jackpot...

That, like, never happens.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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