bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 15z RAP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Dean at channel 8 in Lincoln posted this on Facebook 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Dean at channel 8 in Lincoln posted this on Facebook what kind of scale is that 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 18z HRRR looking good for Omaha/Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 what kind of scale is that News alert....don’t trust Dean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 HRRR with the most razor thin cut off I've ever seen just south of Des Moines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 These NAM totals are ridiculous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Winter Storm Watches just issued for SW Iowa calling for 3-9" of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 18z NAM a touch south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Lol just a casual 12-15" for Omaha/Lincoln on the 18z NAM. I'll be surprised to get 10% of that. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 From DMX ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAYMORNING...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9inches anticipated with the higher amounts in far southernIowa. Isolated higher amounts possible. Visibility restrictionsare possible due to 10 to 20 mph east northeast winds Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Winter Storm Watch issued by DVN for the counties south of I80. Cmon just shift a little further north you jerks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 3K goes crazy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 NWS Omaha tweeted not too long ago, "The pieces are coming together regarding tomorrow's snow forecast / in short - Expect some significant changes to the forecast / Look for an updated snow forecast in next hour or so / More of you than originally forecast may see this tomorrow!" (picture of a snowplow) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Just watch someone in southern Iowa get more snow from this quick-moving mid-April system than I've ever received from any storm in my lifetime. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 3K goes crazy Kuchera is probably more accurate model output vs 10:1 since it will be a more wet snow vs usual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 That's a kick in the balls. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 What's up with the new layout on Weathermodels? It's REALLY not user-friendly. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Hastings NWS just did a discussion update and did not say a single thing about amounts, just that they were hard to determine. Not a single number thrown out..REALLY? You're getting paid to forecast, FORECAST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Wow. OAX keeps Winter Storm Warning south of Douglas and Sarpy county. Lancaster goes under WSWarning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 From DVN Forecast sounding profiles are quite cold considering it's midApril and indicate that snow would be the dominate precip type.One exception may be across the far southern tier of countieswhere 850mb temps could eclipse 0 C. Here, a period of rain or arain/snow mix is possible which would greatly lower total snowaccumulations. A little further north, mostly snow is anticipated.Some of which could become heavy with rates peaking near 1"/hrdue to the strong forcing and presence of elevated instability persteep mid-level lapse rates. Snow ratios are tricky with a strongomega signal at times in the DGZ but countered by a warminglower troposphere (850mb temps between 0 to -3 C).Used snow ratios near 8 to 10:1 because this event should consistof fairly wet snow with near freezing surface-850mb temps. Ourcurrent forecast, based on a model weighted blend, has theheaviest snow band setting up slightly south of the Quad Citieswith a range of 4 to 7 inches. There is plenty of time foradjustments on the exact north/south placement of the band. And ifany mesoscale convective elements develop, isolated higheramounts would be possible. North and south of where the heavy bandsets up, amounts will drop off to 1-3 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Wow. OAX keeps Winter Storm Warning south of Douglas and Sarpy county. Lancaster goes under WSWarningI probably would have included sarpy county. Night crew will update, if trends continue 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 I probably would have included sarpy county. Night crew will update, if trends continue I think you're right. My point click/grid forecast in Papillion shows 4-7" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 I think you're right. My point click/grid forecast in Papillion shows 4-7" mine shows 4-9" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Warning wording for Lincoln and SW IA saying heavy snow with 5-8". That escalated quickly....I missed seeing those kind of headlines. Unfortunately this is going to have high bust potential. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 18z GFS doesn't budge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Yep. GFS sucks for here. LOL. Hopefully this isn’t the one time it’s actually right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Oax 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 OaxWell that escalated quickly! Looks of bust potential with this system as well, where the narrow heavy snow band sets up will be crucial. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Well that escalated quickly! Looks of bust potential with this system as well, where the narrow heavy snow band sets up will be crucial.their Facebook post says heavier band could waver 25-75 miles north or south lmao 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Bill R KETV/Omaha says 1-3” due to the way the sun tilts in April which will cause sig. melting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 OaxKiss of death for you guys. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Bill R KETV/Omaha says 1-3” due to the way the sun tilts in April which will cause sig. meltingThat's a good bet. Daylight snowfall is a curse in April. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 NOAA:Another vigorous shortwave is then forecast to sweep into the OhioValley and southern Great Lakes late Thursday night into Friday andbring additional snow accumulations (particularly over southern partsof the forecast area again). The main longwave trough feature, andshortwaves translating through it, is currently digging through thePacific Northwest and northern Rockies.As this energy ejects east into the vicinity, expect weakcyclogenesis to the south/southwest of the area and an expandingarea of FGEN forcing which should lift north into parts of theforecast area. Model trends into today have been for a more northerntrack with 12z consensus maintaining the northern portion of theforcing over far southern lower MI. At this time, it seemsreasonable that a couple of inches of wet snow will fall fromroughly I-94 south starting in the pre-dawn hours and persistingthough the morning into early afternoon. Any further jog north wouldsuggest higher totals yet, so trends in the track of this systemwill have to be monitored closely. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Wasn't even watching this. Thought it was going be a cold rain. Sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 21z rap showed not much for eastern Nebraska (looked alot like the euro, warmer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 21z rap showed not much for eastern Nebraska (looked alot like the euro, warmer)OAX might’ve pulled the trigger too early. So I guess 18 hours in advance is too early LOL Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 00z HRRR is coming in very warm at the surface keeping a lot of the precip as rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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