bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 starts to change over to snow tomorrow evening on the HRRR and is now showing piling up on the model. Focus remains on southern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM looks a lot different at 15 hours already.Ā I'm guessing it will come in much further south like the other models.Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 00Z HRRRĀ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM significantly south through 21 hours.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM significantly south through 21 hours.Ā Ā Ā Hilarious difference from the 18z run Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Now it's not quite as far south as it looked like it was going to be, but at least a solid county south from 18z, next couple frames will confirm how far south it shifted.Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM looks pretty good to me! Omaha and Lincoln 8-10" with 10:1 ratios.Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM looks pretty good to me! Omaha and Lincoln 8-10" with 10:1 ratios.Ā Ā Actually turns out better than I thought it would but still a decent shift south with lower totals in the bullseye Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Looks to be 30-40 miles south of 18z run to me, at least on the northern edge.Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Actually still flashes 18ish amounts in Southern Iowa too lol. I'd be surprised if that verifies...Ā Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM ended up better than I thought.Ā Still several inches for Iowa City.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 3K NAM also narrowed the band a bit, the north edge shrunk.Ā Amounts are less in eastern NE as well.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 The southern two tiers of Iowa counties is the place to be. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 00z 3k NAMĀ Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Anything south of 80 in Iowa is looking good.Ā Right along 80 (I live less than 4 miles from I80) is the battle zone.Ā Moderate accumulations may be possible along 80, but we'd need a solid 30 to 40 mile shift north to get into the real heavy stuff.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Looks like OAX kept everything the same with the night update. Parts of IA/MO upgraded to warning.Ā Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Itās the NAM against the world. Itās a good feeling. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I'll ride the wwa 3-5 if we get the rates posted. Jim Flowers going that route too. Either way alot of compacted snow. I want to believe the Nam but been way off this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Rap sticking to it's guns on warm. Although most of southern Iowa and Northern Missouri going to get a strong hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I'll ride the wwa 3-5 if we get the rates posted. Jim Flowers going that route too. Either way alot of compacted snow. I want to believe the Nam but been way off this year.Ā Best hope is to be under that narrow rippage band, even moderate snow will have trouble accumulating. There's going to be a lot of un happy people tomorrow, I'll probably be one of themĀ 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Best hope is to be under that narrow rippage band, even moderate snow will have trouble accumulating. There's going to be a lot of un happy people tomorrow, I'll probably be one of themĀ Yeah. Going to be cold wet day regardless. I'll laugh if we get a change up and get our biggest snowfall of the year in mid-april. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Hpc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 S IA looks to be near the epicenter of this system...Ā Ā Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Southern Iowa will have more 8" snowstorms in the past 2 seasons than I've had in the past at least 5 years.Ā They've done quite well in southern Iowa the past 2 seasons.Ā Hard to believe a snowstorm missing me to the south on April 16th.Ā I kept hoping for a north shift, but even the NAM is now abandoning me. LOL.Ā Oh well.Ā Bring on real spring please.Ā 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 HRRRĀ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 NAM sinking further south.Ā I'll be lucky to get an inch maybe 2 out of this.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Even with all of the late season snow seemingly falling nearby from time to time, Topeka's last measurable snowfall was February 12 (2.7") over two months ago. Looks like this event will largely miss us, too. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 well NAM still with 3-4" at 10:1 hereĀ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 3K NAM similarĀ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 3K NAM similarHere's the whole run: Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 There is already a 5.5" snow total well south of Des Moines in Iowa, and that is just from a little weak wave early this morning.Ā Seriously, a weak-a** little mid-April wave dropped more snow than I received from any storm all winter.Ā Ā 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Southern Iowa will have more 8" snowstorms in the past 2 seasons than I've had in the past at least 5 years.Ā They've done quite well in southern Iowa the past 2 seasons.Ā Hard to believe a snowstorm missing me to the south on April 16th.Ā Yes.Ā Southern Iowa has been nailed by several sneaky, big snowstorms in recent years.Ā It doesn't seem fair when we struggle to break free from the 3-5" chains every year. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 GFSĀ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I think that is the best GFS run so far for Cedar Rapids.Ā We may get 1+" out of this.Ā Of course, it will fall late at night like the last one. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 That's the best run of the GFS for my area yet. Snow has finally started falling in my area, had to fight off dry air earlier. Check out the clouds that rolled through my area last night; I can't take credit for the pictures they were taken by a friend of mine.Ā 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Gfs caving to the Nam interesting. The dry air is slowly going away and the snow band is filling in to the west. Now they are reporting 38 here but I'm guessing the upper air is much colder and the surface air temp will fall soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 First flakes here in Lincoln, guess we're about to find out which model wins. HRRR can be funky with p-type, but if we can't get lower than 33 it'll verify.Ā Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 First flakes here in Lincoln, guess we're about to find out which model wins. HRRR can be funky with p-type, but if we can't get lower than 33 it'll verify.Ā Ā The HRRR and RAP are clearly having ptype/thermal issues.Ā It has all rain at the onset of this for several hours before changing to snow.Ā No other model is showing that.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.