4/16 & 4/17 Spring Teaser Snow

[snowstorm83 2042]

Lol just a casual 12-15" for Omaha/Lincoln on the 18z NAM. I'll be surprised to get 10% of that. 

[bud2380 3520]

From DMX

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
inches anticipated with the higher amounts in far southern
Iowa. Isolated higher amounts possible. Visibility restrictions
are possible due to 10 to 20 mph east northeast winds Thursday.

[bud2380 3520]

Winter Storm Watch issued by DVN for the counties south of I80.  Cmon just shift a little further north you jerks!

[bud2380 3520]

3K goes crazy

 

[NH4NU 137]

NWS Omaha tweeted not too long ago, "The pieces are coming together regarding tomorrow's snow forecast / in short - Expect some significant changes to the forecast / Look for an updated snow forecast in next hour or so / More of you than originally forecast may see this tomorrow!" (picture of a snowplow) 

[Hawkeye 4600]

Just watch someone in southern Iowa get more snow from this quick-moving mid-April system than I've ever received from any storm in my lifetime.

[jcwxguy 1471]

3K goes crazy

 

Kuchera is probably more accurate model output vs 10:1 since it will be a more wet snow vs usual

[FAR_Weather 5220]

That's a kick in the balls.

[FAR_Weather 5220]

What's up with the new layout on Weathermodels? It's REALLY not user-friendly.

[clintbeed1993 540]

Hastings NWS just did a discussion update and did not say a single thing about amounts, just that they were hard to determine.  Not a single number thrown out..REALLY? You're getting paid to forecast, FORECAST

[NH4NU 137]

Wow. OAX keeps Winter Storm Warning south of Douglas and Sarpy county. Lancaster goes under WSWarning

[bud2380 3520]

From DVN

 

 

Forecast sounding profiles are quite cold considering it's mid
April and indicate that snow would be the dominate precip type.
One exception may be across the far southern tier of counties
where 850mb temps could eclipse 0 C. Here, a period of rain or a
rain/snow mix is possible which would greatly lower total snow
accumulations. A little further north, mostly snow is anticipated.
Some of which could become heavy with rates peaking near 1"/hr
due to the strong forcing and presence of elevated instability per
steep mid-level lapse rates. Snow ratios are tricky with a strong
omega signal at times in the DGZ but countered by a warming
lower troposphere (850mb temps between 0 to -3 C).

Used snow ratios near 8 to 10:1 because this event should consist
of fairly wet snow with near freezing surface-850mb temps. Our
current forecast, based on a model weighted blend, has the
heaviest snow band setting up slightly south of the Quad Cities
with a range of 4 to 7 inches. There is plenty of time for
adjustments on the exact north/south placement of the band. And if
any mesoscale convective elements develop, isolated higher
amounts would be possible. North and south of where the heavy band
sets up, amounts will drop off to 1-3 inches.

[jcwxguy 1471]

Wow. OAX keeps Winter Storm Warning south of Douglas and Sarpy county. Lancaster goes under WSWarning

I probably would have included sarpy county. Night crew will update, if trends continue

[NH4NU 137]

I probably would have included sarpy county. Night crew will update, if trends continue

 

I think you're right. My point click/grid forecast in Papillion shows 4-7" 

[jcwxguy 1471]

I think you're right. My point click/grid forecast in Papillion shows 4-7"

mine shows 4-9"

[snowstorm83 2042]

Warning wording for Lincoln and SW IA saying heavy snow with 5-8". That escalated quickly....I missed seeing those kind of headlines. Unfortunately this is going to have high bust potential. 

[NH4NU 137]

18z GFS doesn't budge. 

[bud2380 3520]

Yep. GFS sucks for here. LOL. Hopefully this isn’t the one time it’s actually right

[jcwxguy 1471]

Oax

[bud2380 3520]

ICON

 

[Bryan1117 960]

Oax

Well that escalated quickly! Looks of bust potential with this system as well, where the narrow heavy snow band sets up will be crucial.

[jcwxguy 1471]

Well that escalated quickly! Looks of bust potential with this system as well, where the narrow heavy snow band sets up will be crucial.

their Facebook post says heavier band could waver 25-75 miles north or south lmao

[NH4NU 137]

Bill R KETV/Omaha says 1-3” due to the way the sun tilts in April which will cause sig. melting

[FAR_Weather 5220]

Oax

Kiss of death for you guys.

[FAR_Weather 5220]

Bill R KETV/Omaha says 1-3” due to the way the sun tilts in April which will cause sig. melting

That's a good bet. Daylight snowfall is a curse in April.

[Niko 7225]

NOAA:

Another vigorous shortwave is then forecast to sweep into the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes late Thursday night into Friday and
bring additional snow accumulations (particularly over southern parts
of the forecast area again). The main longwave trough feature, and
shortwaves translating through it, is currently digging through the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

As this energy ejects east into the vicinity, expect weak
cyclogenesis to the south/southwest of the area and an expanding
area of FGEN forcing which should lift north into parts of the
forecast area. Model trends into today have been for a more northern
track with 12z consensus maintaining the northern portion of the
forcing over far southern lower MI. At this time, it seems
reasonable that a couple of inches of wet snow will fall from
roughly I-94 south starting in the pre-dawn hours and persisting
though the morning into early afternoon. Any further jog north would
suggest higher totals yet, so trends in the track of this system
will have to be monitored closely.

[Stormhunter87 969]

Wasn't even watching this. Thought it was going be a cold rain. Sigh.

[jcwxguy 1471]

21z rap showed not much for eastern Nebraska (looked alot like the euro, warmer)

[snowstorm83 2042]

21z rap showed not much for eastern Nebraska (looked alot like the euro, warmer)

OAX might’ve pulled the trigger too early. So I guess 18 hours in advance is too early LOL

[bud2380 3520]

00z HRRR is coming in very warm at the surface keeping a lot of the precip as rain. 

[bud2380 3520]

starts to change over to snow tomorrow evening on the HRRR and is now showing piling up on the model. Focus remains on southern Iowa

[bud2380 3520]

NAM looks a lot different at 15 hours already.  I'm guessing it will come in much further south like the other models. 

[bud2380 3520]

00Z HRRR

 

[bud2380 3520]

NAM significantly south through 21 hours.  

[snowstorm83 2042]

NAM significantly south through 21 hours.  

 

Hilarious difference from the 18z run

[bud2380 3520]

Now it's not quite as far south as it looked like it was going to be, but at least a solid county south from 18z, next couple frames will confirm how far south it shifted. 

[NH4NU 137]

NAM looks pretty good to me! Omaha and Lincoln 8-10" with 10:1 ratios. 

[snowstorm83 2042]

NAM looks pretty good to me! Omaha and Lincoln 8-10" with 10:1 ratios. 

 

Actually turns out better than I thought it would but still a decent shift south with lower totals in the bullseye

[bud2380 3520]

Looks to be 30-40 miles south of 18z run to me, at least on the northern edge. 

[snowstorm83 2042]

Actually still flashes 18ish amounts in Southern Iowa too lol. I'd be surprised if that verifies... 

[bud2380 3520]

NAM ended up better than I thought.  Still several inches for Iowa City.

 

 

[bud2380 3520]

3K NAM also narrowed the band a bit, the north edge shrunk.  Amounts are less in eastern NE as well.  

[Hawkeye 4600]

The southern two tiers of Iowa counties is the place to be.

[Hawkeye 4600]

00z 3k NAM

 

[bud2380 3520]

Anything south of 80 in Iowa is looking good.  Right along 80 (I live less than 4 miles from I80) is the battle zone.  Moderate accumulations may be possible along 80, but we'd need a solid 30 to 40 mile shift north to get into the real heavy stuff.  

[snowstorm83 2042]

Looks like OAX kept everything the same with the night update. Parts of IA/MO upgraded to warning. 

[jcwxguy 1471]

Gfs

[jcwxguy 1471]

[bud2380 3520]

It’s the NAM against the world. It’s a good feeling.

[Stormhunter87 969]

I'll ride the wwa 3-5 if we get the rates posted. Jim Flowers going that route too. Either way alot of compacted snow. I want to believe the Nam but been way off this year.