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4/16 & 4/17 Spring Teaser Snow


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Wow, it is absolutely ripping down snow in my backyard in Southwest Omaha right now. Low visibility with fatties falling from the sky, with no wind. Getting the full snow globe effect outside right no

Dang heavy snow

About 8" here

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From DMX

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
inches anticipated with the higher amounts in far southern
Iowa. Isolated higher amounts possible. Visibility restrictions
are possible due to 10 to 20 mph east northeast winds Thursday.

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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NWS Omaha tweeted not too long ago, "The pieces are coming together regarding tomorrow's snow forecast / in short - Expect some significant changes to the forecast / Look for an updated snow forecast in next hour or so / More of you than originally forecast may see this tomorrow!" (picture of a snowplow) 

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Just watch someone in southern Iowa get more snow from this quick-moving mid-April system than I've ever received from any storm in my lifetime.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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sn10_acc.us_mw.png

That's a kick in the balls.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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What's up with the new layout on Weathermodels? It's REALLY not user-friendly.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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From DVN

 

 

Forecast sounding profiles are quite cold considering it's mid
April and indicate that snow would be the dominate precip type.
One exception may be across the far southern tier of counties
where 850mb temps could eclipse 0 C. Here, a period of rain or a
rain/snow mix is possible which would greatly lower total snow
accumulations. A little further north, mostly snow is anticipated.
Some of which could become heavy with rates peaking near 1"/hr
due to the strong forcing and presence of elevated instability per
steep mid-level lapse rates. Snow ratios are tricky with a strong
omega signal at times in the DGZ but countered by a warming
lower troposphere (850mb temps between 0 to -3 C).

Used snow ratios near 8 to 10:1 because this event should consist
of fairly wet snow with near freezing surface-850mb temps. Our
current forecast, based on a model weighted blend, has the
heaviest snow band setting up slightly south of the Quad Cities
with a range of 4 to 7 inches. There is plenty of time for
adjustments on the exact north/south placement of the band. And if
any mesoscale convective elements develop, isolated higher
amounts would be possible. North and south of where the heavy band
sets up, amounts will drop off to 1-3 inches.

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Warning wording for Lincoln and SW IA saying heavy snow with 5-8". That escalated quickly....I missed seeing those kind of headlines. Unfortunately this is going to have high bust potential. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Well that escalated quickly! Looks of bust potential with this system as well, where the narrow heavy snow band sets up will be crucial.

their Facebook post says heavier band could waver 25-75 miles north or south lmao
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Oax

Kiss of death for you guys.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Bill R KETV/Omaha says 1-3” due to the way the sun tilts in April which will cause sig. melting

That's a good bet. Daylight snowfall is a curse in April.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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NOAA:

Another vigorous shortwave is then forecast to sweep into the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes late Thursday night into Friday and
bring additional snow accumulations (particularly over southern parts
of the forecast area again). The main longwave trough feature, and
shortwaves translating through it, is currently digging through the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

As this energy ejects east into the vicinity, expect weak
cyclogenesis to the south/southwest of the area and an expanding
area of FGEN forcing which should lift north into parts of the
forecast area. Model trends into today have been for a more northern
track with 12z consensus maintaining the northern portion of the
forcing over far southern lower MI. At this time, it seems
reasonable that a couple of inches of wet snow will fall from
roughly I-94 south starting in the pre-dawn hours and persisting
though the morning into early afternoon. Any further jog north would
suggest higher totals yet, so trends in the track of this system
will have to be monitored closely.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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21z rap showed not much for eastern Nebraska (looked alot like the euro, warmer)

OAX might’ve pulled the trigger too early. So I guess 18 hours in advance is too early LOL

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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NAM looks pretty good to me! Omaha and Lincoln 8-10" with 10:1 ratios. 

 

Actually turns out better than I thought it would but still a decent shift south with lower totals in the bullseye

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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The southern two tiers of Iowa counties is the place to be.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z 3k NAM

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Anything south of 80 in Iowa is looking good.  Right along 80 (I live less than 4 miles from I80) is the battle zone.  Moderate accumulations may be possible along 80, but we'd need a solid 30 to 40 mile shift north to get into the real heavy stuff.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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