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May 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Hope Tom doesn’t mind, but I’ve started the May thread. Will the nice temps seen in late April continue into May, or will we still be looking at snow maps? Let’s discuss.

 

The 0z GFS for the loss.....

LOL, the past couple GFS runs has several minor snow events traversing the GL's region...reminds me of May '13 or '14....can't remember the exact year but I recall James saying it snowed on his B Day in May.  00z Euro has snow falling the following weekend in NE and potentially late season Frost/Freezes with record cold possible.

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LOL, the past couple GFS runs has several minor snow events traversing the GL's region...reminds me of May '13 or '14....can't remember the exact year but I recall James saying it snowed on his B Day in May. 00z Euro has snow falling the following weekend in NE and potentially late season Frost/Freezes with record cold possible.

My bday is Nov 11th but yes I had 9" of snow May 1-2, 2013! It was crazy
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LOL, the past couple GFS runs has several minor snow events traversing the GL's region...reminds me of May '13 or '14....can't remember the exact year but I recall James saying it snowed on his B Day in May.  00z Euro has snow falling the following weekend in NE and potentially late season Frost/Freezes with record cold possible.

I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!

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Here is a quick look back at the year so far.

For the year at Grand Rapids the mean so far is 35.4° the average mean for the 1st 4 months is 33.7° so at this time 2020 is at +1.7° Now a good case can be made that April 2020 was indeed well below average. But January 2020 was a whopping +6.9° so that has been the difference so far this year

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I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!

I love gardens and home grown veggies!  Nothing beats the taste of a homegrown tomato!

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Where the heck was this in Winter......

off15_temp.gif

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 54F w a blend of clouds and sun. Gorgeous weekend coming up w temps in the 70s and sunshine. Dry CF coming through on Sunday which will drop temps and hardly any rainfall. Next week features highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s w possible frost and freeze advisories.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!

Going to be hardening off my tomatoes & peppers hopefully the next week or two. My early season cool crops all germinated, albeit taking much longer than usual. This recent soaking and now sun today/tomorrow should do wonders though.

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. By looking from my office window, I don't think there is a single cloud out there. Temps are at 61F w trees starting to bloom, although, there are a few bare ones still around.

 

My Arborvitae trees definitely need a a trim from what I am seeing.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GL's chill on the way...meanwhile, looks like I'm going to Fry over here...crazy to see how many 100 degree temps we've seen already and that are in the forecast next week.  Looks like Summer has come early.

 

 

1.gif

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KLNK overshot the high temp today by 6 degrees and hit 91 for the first day of May. Tied with McCook, Wahoo, and Tekamah as the the highest temps in the state today. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I usually don't tip my own hat to myself but this is pretty much confirmation of a ludicrous looking AO forecast I made a great while back of a warm season -AO. It will likely fade with time, but I think we have a good fair shot of seeing a -AO July crash like 2009.

Tom and then from the Tennessee Smokies and NE may well be the only places in the CONUS that see the sustained heat at all this summer.

 

Don't see any reason to think the SE is going to catch much of a break in terms of severe until next month if we get a pattern retrogression. We should, but there's been a lot of mixed signals everywhere in the last 18 months, so I'll see if it abates over the coming weeks. Benefit is that we have all been pretty well distracted the last few weeks. Lol. Happy May.ao.sprd2.gif

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The old saying, "April showers brings May flowers"...this year may bring "May Snow Showers" next weekend across the GL's....the emmense blocking pattern setting up later next week is incredible.  Haven't seen this much high lat blocking in a very long time.  Last night's 00z Euro run showed a piece of the Polar Vortex swinging through the northern part of the GL's.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_36.png

 

 

 

 

00z EPS hinting at Lake Effect snow up in the U.P!

 

 

  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh72-192.gif

1.png

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I think I topped out at 88 in Central Nebraska

What was the DP?  Dry heat?  Your getting a taste of the blazing heat we are enduring out here.  Next week the models show temps surging to 107F!  Yikes!

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Next weekend could feature snowshowers in my neck of the woods w temps approaching the freezing point at night. Daytime highs will be very chilly and will be running a good 25 to 30 degrees BN.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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May 2013 flashbacks up there Tom. Crazy. Thats going to feel cold!

You know what I’m thinking...that set the stage for some nice winters. Not to get ahead of myself, but man, I’ve been in summer mode over here and I got this funny feeling when I head back hime sometime in June it’ll be a refreshing summer with som bouts of heat.

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Next weekend could feature snowshowers in my neck of the woods w temps approaching the freezing point at night. Daytime highs will be very chilly and will be running a good 25 to 30 degrees BN.

Could get below 30 here next weekend. Hopefully it'll kill the wasps that have been out and about! Concerned about plants though.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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What was the DP? Dry heat? Your getting a taste of the blazing heat we are enduring out here. Next week the models show temps surging to 107F! Yikes!

Dew was 45. Right now temp is in the 50’s with cloudy skies and a strong north wind. Left the windows open last night and temp inside is 62 degrees. Chilly for sure. Nebraska weather is very changeable for sure.

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Could get below 30 here next weekend. Hopefully it'll kill the wasps that have been out and about! Concerned about plants though.

Crazy weather. Wouldn't be surprised if record lows occur, let alone record low high temps for that matter. Anyone that has plants outside should prepare to cover them.

 

Yep, they are annoying. Hopefully, these pygmy species can be destroyed w this coldsnap coming, especially at night when they are sleeping. They are not dangerous,unless you bother it, but you don't wanna get it to sting you . Anyhow, I cant stand them.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You know what I’m thinking...that set the stage for some nice winters. Not to get ahead of myself, but man, I’ve been in summer mode over here and I got this funny feeling when I head back hime sometime in June it’ll be a refreshing summer with som bouts of heat.

No doubt. I had that big snow May 1-2, 2013 and I had my first flakes of the next season on Sept 27, 2013 which set the stage for the epic '13-'14 Winter.
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Attm, its 70F under partly to mostly sunny skies. Beautiful weather today in SEMI. Enjoy everyone! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You know what I’m thinking...that set the stage for some nice winters. Not to get ahead of myself, but man, I’ve been in summer mode over here and I got this funny feeling when I head back home sometime in June it’ll be a refreshing summer with som bouts of heat.

Winter 13-14 was a blitz from 12-1 all the way to 3-30. Crazy good stuff. We're a long way from there right now though.

Oh yeah man. You're going to time that perfectly I think. Enjoy the summer weather out there buddy.

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80.8*F.

WOW!

 

I am at 75.1F. It has not felt this warm here since last Autumn season. Feels awesome being outside.

 

I can definitely see some records being broken today.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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WOW!

 

I am at 75.1F. It has not felt this warm here since last Autumn season. Feels awesome being outside.

 

I can definitely see some records being broken today.

And then some more records being broken next weekend!

 

81.0*F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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And then some more records being broken next weekend!

 

81.0*F.

Go figure! It almost feels like we are in March. This will definitely be an outre week of weather.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Honestly loving the look for the next couple weeks. Lots of highs in the 50s and 60s. I'll take that before sets in for good, we have months of warm weather ahead. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Yesterday was a great day for early May. And while today also looks to be a good day weather wise that may not be the case next weekend. While things still could change but at this time it looks like next weekend could be near record cold. And there is a chance of some snow as well.

This from the NWS
“IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BASED ON SPC SOUNDING DATA HISTORY, THE
COLDEST 850 TEMP IN MAY FOR THE DTX SOUNDING AT 850 MB IS AROUND
-12C. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING -10C AT 850 MB NEAR US FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE. RECORD
LOW HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT OUR
CLIMATE SITES. RECORD LOWS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS A HARD FREEZE IS MORE THAN POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SO
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, GIVEN THE
INSTABLITY SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDING, ONE SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SNOW, OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SOFT HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. I DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE ANY SIGNIFCANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL
SEE SOME SNOW FALLING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.”

Now here are the cold records for next weekend at Grand Rapids. For Friday, the 8th the coldest maximum is 41 set in 1947 and the record low is 27 set in 1976. For Saturday, the record coldest maximum is 43 set in 1960 and the record low is 23 set in 1947. And for Sunday the record coldest maximum is 47 set in 1947 and the coldest low is 22 set in 1966.

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A recap of last week's weather shows I had highs in the 70°s every day except on Wednesday. It was a beautiful week except there was plenty of wind at times. But we sure are stuck in a boring weather pattern compared to normal.

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A recap of last week's weather shows I had highs in the 70°s every day except on Wednesday. It was a beautiful week except there was plenty of wind at times. But we sure are stuck in a boring weather pattern compared to normal.

Are the farmers out planting or are they just prepping the soils for the time being?  

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No doubt. I had that big snow May 1-2, 2013 and I had my first flakes of the next season on Sept 27, 2013 which set the stage for the epic '13-'14 Winter.

I remember that event even though it skirted by just to the west of me. Either way, we just got done with winter and I don't even want to think about next winter already! Ugh I hate cold and the '13 -'14 winter only has bad memories for me when I still had livestock to keep fed and warm!

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