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May 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Spoke to my close friend back home yesterday and he said how glorious of a day it was spending time outdoors.  It's too bad the parks are still all closed.  Another pleasant day on tap back home and the notorious and dreaded "pneumonia front" is forecast to make its way into NE IL later this evening.  I guess the silver lining is that it's hitting later in the day instead on midday.

 

 

 

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Are the farmers out planting or are they just prepping the soils for the time being?

 

Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!
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Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!

That's great to hear.  No flooding and snow this year!  I'm not sure how quickly the crop will start growing if the cooler than normal temps persist throughout this month.

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I think I'll wait on laying down that grass seed

I would say the main problem in getting grass started now is dry weather, at least for my place. I keep needing to water the patches I planted a month or so ago before several snows and cold weather hit my area. But it's growing (slowly) now as it hadn't sprouted before it hit 19° one morning and also was covered with snow! Also planted some last week and that should grow better except it's dry now.

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I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!

Wow! Do you eat a lot of potatoes etc or are you a produce farmer and sell at a farmer's market or something? Good luck anyway! Home raised is the best!

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Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!

A lot of farmers may actually be finished or wrapping up with planting, but many are still going hard especially locally.

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I'm heading up to the mountains today just east of Payson near a couple of lakes where the elevation is around 7,500ft.  Just checked temps up there and they are a bit chilly in the upper 30's (38F) right now and only getting up into the upper 60's today but with full sun it should feel pretty good.

 

Going to try these two trails:

 

https://www.azutopia.com/easy-hikes/see-spring-hiking-trail/

 

https://www.azutopia.com/easy-hikes/rim-lakes-vista-trail/

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Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!

At least some facet of the economy is doing well.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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At least some facet of the economy is doing well.

Yes planting is going great in Iowa, (areas east of the Mississippi River had heavy rainfall recently though) but grain prices are very low due to ethanol plants doing poorly, (a lot of corn goes for ethanol production) and greatly reducing output, and even shutting down in some cases due to low gas prices and lower demand! One thing leads to another it seems.

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I'm heading up to the mountains today just east of Payson near a couple of lakes where the elevation is around 7,500ft.  Just checked temps up there and they are a bit chilly in the upper 30's (38F) right now and only getting up into the upper 60's today but with full sun it should feel pretty good.

 

Going to try these two trails:

 

https://www.azutopia.com/easy-hikes/see-spring-hiking-trail/

 

https://www.azutopia.com/easy-hikes/rim-lakes-vista-trail/

Sounds like fun. Enjoy!
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Attm, 66F w sunny skies. Gorgeous day!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

An even colder shot of air will advance into the area late in the
week as upper low feature that evolves over Hudson Bay early in the
week eventually sweeps south/southeast through Ontario into the
northern Great Lakes. The air mass associated with this features
will be quite cold for the second week of May and may very well
bring freeze concerns by early Saturday morning after a light frost
or two in spots during the course of next week. Temperature will
struggle to 50 degrees Friday and pretty much Saturday well short of
average high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s. The cold front will
also maintain unsettled weather conditions with another period of
light precipitation focused on Friday. It is not completely out of
the question that a few snowflakes may mix in the the rain showers
early Friday morning.   :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There is a mention by the NWS of some snow for next weekend. While it is somewhat uncommon for it to snow in May it has happened in the past. And this may come as a surprise but the dates of next weekend May 8 thru the 10 have the highest snow fall records for Grand Rapids recorded history. For May 8 the record is just a trace and that has happened in 1980, 1954 and 1947. Now for May 9 the record is 5.5” that fell in 1923 and for May 10 the record is also 5.5” and that fell in 1902. The lasts snow fall at Grand Rapids that I can find is a trace that was reported to fall on May 26, 1961.

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I'm happy to see the models all showing more rainfall now with the next system starting later today. It will be a cooler rain, but I'll take it as we need it. Severe storms are firing in the battle zone in Kansas currently.

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The last three days of 70s were pretty nice.  It'll be a while before we see 70 again.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If the GFS is close to right, we will be well below normal for most of May.  Over the next 16 days, temps look to only hit above normal 1 day on May 15th. Average high temperature on May 15th in Iowa City is 71.5.  GFS shows temps in the mid 70s that day.  Otherwise every other day on the 6z GFS shows below normal temps or possibly very near normal on some days.  

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It looks like a fun day down in eastern Kansas, then across Missouri.  I love waking up to storms, with more storms through the day.  We'll likely have to wait til lay May into June for that.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow! Do you eat a lot of potatoes etc or are you a produce farmer and sell at a farmer's market or something? Good luck anyway! Home raised is the best!

Thanks a lot! My wife and I live in my hometown and my parents are really close to our house! Between my family, parents, and a few other close members we finish them up right around this time of the year. I just have a few left from last year's crop. You can't beat a home grown potato I'll tell you that much! My wife then does the canning with everything else I grow in the garden and sells it at our farmers market later in the year! 

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Attm, its 45F under cloudy skies. What a shock to the system this is!

 

Widespread frost tanite w temps falling at or below freezing! Snow/rain mix possible by late in the week! No accumulations are anticipated as for now. Temps by the weekend are expected to crash into the 20s w a hard freeze likely to occur.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI401 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-050900-Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-401 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightWidespread frost will be possible late tonight generally north of theM-59 corridor. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower 30s withsome locations in the Thumb dropping into the upper 20s for a shorttime. A Frost Advisory may be required for parts of the area if skiesremain clear enough to support these cold temperatures.

Discussion:

Models remain very consistent with the handling of this polar low as
it strengthens and drops south into the region Thursday night into
Friday and then pivots through the area on through Saturday. Shower
activity will increase on the front side of this system late
Thursday night into Friday and while a majority of the precipitation
will fall as rain, a mix or rain and snow cannot be ruled out early
Friday morning as the cold air begins to deepen over the area. That
said, precipitation should be rather minor given the dry nature of
this arctic airmass.

This cold air mass will be quite significant for the second week of
May as 850mb temps are forecast to drop through the negative single
digits Friday, record or near record cold at that level per DTX
upper air climatology and then continue to -10c or less within the
core of cold air Friday night into early Saturday. This core of cold
air will bring an increasing risk for a hard freeze to the area to
some extent early Friday morning, but especially by early Saturday
morning as widespread 20s look pretty likely at this point.

Only minor moderation is expected once this upper low shears/pivots
to the east/southeast as the overall upper trough remains in place
on Sunday. In fact, another significant northern stream shortwave is
expected to dig into the region just beyond this forecast period
maintaining the generally cool mid May conditions into next week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What do the years 1903, 1907, 1924, 1917, 1945, 1947. and 1997 have in common? Well they all had either a cold May and record lows in May and all of them had colder than average summers. Well "cooler" than average. Many had frost in Northern lower Michigan and the UP all summer long. But note the following winters some were average and some were warmer than average. But that is the way things go. Do not plant the tomato plants until late May or June this year. and as for the fruit trees?? it depends on how far along they are and just how cold it get this weekend. At this time it is clear and 47 at GRR and 50 here at my house

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Big storms in KC today, mostly on the south side. Pretty good bow echo just formed in the last hour south of KC with 70-80 mph winds. Damage reports are coming in now.

 

KC needed some rain, we were running below average the last 4-5 weeks. Not dry, but not wet either.

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It appears my area will get a decent soaking overnight through Tuesday as a clipper-like disturbance pivots through the state.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cherry tree is on the lower right, apple on the left, (notice my anemometer up on the windmill) plus one other photo from yesterday.

IMG-4853.jpg

 

IMG-4859.jpg

Your area looks to be a little more advanced in the green up than it is here in west Michigan, But there are some fruit tree blossoms out and if it gets down into the low 20's this weekend there could be a lot of damage. 28 is kind of the cut off point.

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Cherry tree is on the lower right, apple on the left, (notice my anemometer up on the windmill) plus one other photo from yesterday.

IMG-4853.jpg

 

IMG-4859.jpg

 

Love the pics!  I just remember seeing you post pictures during the Winter of the snowy scenes and now seeing these photos it sure does look like Spring has Sprung.  I enjoy waking up early in the morning and watching the sun rise with a little dew on freshly cut grass....ahhhh, the simple things in life we all need to enjoy...your back yard reminds me of my mothers side of my family back in Poland that have open farmland.  I miss the smells of the open rural farmland.

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Cherry tree is on the lower right, apple on the left, (notice my anemometer up on the windmill) plus one other photo from yesterday.IMG-4853.jpgIMG-4859.jpg

Man, you guys are in full bloom down there. Those pics look nothing like here in E/C MN. I don’t even have buds on some of my trees yet. Doesn’t help that we are running quite dry here this spring.

 

Great pics though!

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Most of the modeling is pointing towards a warmer and MUCH wetter period starting around the 15th as a very active period ignites.  Good signs for the farmers who have planted and those who will be finishing up.  It's all about timing as they say..

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

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We'll need some consistent warmth later in the month to get the plants going.

 

A solid rain band is parked over my area today.  So far I'm at 0.50".  This would have been a nice snow event a few months ago.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We'll need some consistent warmth later in the month to get the plants going.

 

A solid rain band is parked over my area today. So far I'm at 0.50". This would have been a nice snow event a few months ago.

I was thinking that earlier when I checked out the radar. Would have been great in the winter. Nice slow moving system. Curious what my rain gauge will have in it when i get home later.
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