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May 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

353 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

 

MIZ053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-080830-

/O.NEW.KDTX.FZ.W.0001.200509T0400Z-200509T1300Z/

Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-

Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

Including the cities of Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer,

Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian,

and Monroe

353 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

 

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM

EDT SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan where the growing season

has started, mainly along and south of the I-69 corridor.

 

* WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

 

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other

sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor

plumbing.

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Long duration cold advection/north-northwest winds then kick in
tonight through Saturday morning. Steep low level lapse rates
developing as 700 MB cold pool of -20 to -23 C swings through Friday
afternoon, coupled with moisture flux off the Great Lakes should be
sufficient for scattered shower activity. With 850 MB temps lowering
below -8 C, precip type should trend to all snow, but no
accumulation expected during the daytime hours, as surface temps
still sneak into the low to mid 40s with intervals of sun.

Loss of daytime heating and unfavorable northwest flow for lake
effect should lead to clearing Friday night, with lows falling into
mid/upper 20s across most locations, per 00z Euro MOS. Still could
see some snow showers across THE northern Thumb region with Lake
Superior-Michigan-Saginaw Bay connection which lingers into Saturday
morning. Trough axis exits east during Saturday, with significant
height rises and moderate amount of warm advection taking place as
850 MB temps warm to around -5 C by days end, supporting max temps in
the mid to upper 40s.

Next round of 500 MB height falls already tracking through the
Midwest Saturday night-Sunday morning, with the Euro and GFS
reversing courses, as the 00z GFS and bulk of its ensemble members
show surface low tracking through southern Lower Michigan during the
day Sunday. The 00z Euro is now slower and more compact with the
upper wave, still lingering over Iowa Sunday morning before slowly
dampening out and tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night.
The
UKmet is slower like the EURO, but is significantly farther north,
tracking low along the southern Michigan border. While the Canadian
is weaker and faster, closer to the GFS. Thus, still really can`t go
likely pops or greater for a cold rain until the timing is fined
tuned. Unusually cold air for May standards then follows for early
next week, with 850 MB temps hovering in the mid negative single
numbers.

 

There is a chance for some snow to mix in or change to all snow w this system. Just amazing stuff. The big snow will be way east of my area where  NYS n New England will get the brunt of it. Hoping we can get Spring back after this cold snap. I also have a strong feeling that next Winter season will be severe. I don't have any data or science to prove it. Just a gut feeling! :lol: ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro once again backing off on the warmup.  It seems the 00z runs are showing the warmth and the 12z runs keeps it cooler.  GFS has been more consistent with the warming trend, I can only hope that the GFS is correct.  

I've noticed that difference when tracking winter storms on the Euro's 00z/12z runs.  Glad to hear I'm not the only one that notices this!

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For Saturday night into Sunday morning:

 

...temperatures may fall to near or below freezing Saturday evening

across central MN, changing the precip to all snow. Numerous

ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are showing accumulation,

mostly along and north of I-94, and it is certainly not out of

the question with this occurring at night. There is still much uncertainty beyond this such as where the axis

of heaviest precip will set up, how cold temps actually get, and

the timing of the transition. For now can`t really forecast more

than an inch anywhere with these factors, but it`s looking

increasingly likely 2 to maybe 3 inches fall somewhere near or

north of I-94.

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A little bored today and looking up some all time records. And some i find to be truly astounding.  In the month of July in Cedar Rapids, a record high has been broken only ONE single time since 1940.  That was in 2012.  Incredible.  

 

And if you look at Burlington, IA they had 14 consecutive days in 1936 with record highs, and more amazing is all 14 still stand today.  From July 4th through the 17th.  The last record high broken in July in Burlington was in 1988.  Incredible stuff.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/climategraph_month_image_table_cid

 

attachicon.gifJuly Records.PNG

 

attachicon.gifBurlington.PNG

Part of the reason is rainfall has increased quite a bit across the upper Midwest in the last few decades which increases humidity and humid air doesn't heat up as easily. They say heavy rainfall events are much more common than they used to be. Overnight lows also are warmer as a result, but highs aren't as hot.
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Looking into the extended, the models are starting to point towards a strong SW Flow aloft and an impressive summer like ridge into the central/eastern CONUS Day 10-15 and that will lead us towards Memorial Day weekend.  For those states who are still on lock down, this sorta sucks because all parks/lakes will have bans I'm sure while others will not.  We could really see a flip towards Summer by this time for a majority of the Sub Forum.

 

 

1.png

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Light snow currently w temps at 34F. Highs today upper 30s to barely hitting the 40F mark. Freeze warning for tanite as temps drop to 20-25F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Light snow currently w temps at 34F. Highs today upper 30s to barely hitting the 40F mark. Freeze warning for tanite as temps drop to 20-25F.

This is going to be interesting to see if next Autumn our region see's some early snows and if there is indeed a short period between Last Flake and First Flake.

 

Meanwhile, some record lows being set across the Upper MW/GL's which sets the tone over the next few days.

1.png

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At this time the official reading at GRR is 36. Here at my house it is 38 with partly cloudy skies. The DP is currently in the teens that and the wind just makes it feel that much colder. Today will be one of the coldest maximums for this date. The record coldest high for today is 41 set in 1947. The forecast high for today is at 42. The average high for today is 67. The record high for today is a warm 89 set in 1926. The record low for tomorrow AM is 23 set in 1947. In 2nd place is 27 set in 1966.

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This is going to be interesting to see if next Autumn our region see's some early snows and if there is indeed a short period between Last Flake and First Flake.

 

Meanwhile, some record lows being set across the Upper MW/GL's which sets the tone over the next few days.

I have a strong feeling we will see early snows (although not sure if that bodes well for our entire Winter season) but, very cold temperatures to follow and snowy conditions could be possible. Late season cold and snow usually leads towards that way, or most of the time.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom,

 

What is interesting also is that not only do we break record low temperatures here in Detroit today, but also snowfall record as well.

 

Note: Interestingly, today's record snowfall for Detroit is a trace, set back in 1947, so any snow Detroit gets today, or even flurries for that matter, will tie our daily record snowfall. Today will be a day of broken records in the Metro area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At least over here the temp should only reach the low 30s as sunrise nears.  Michigan may be in the 20s all night.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Nashville area is seeing freezing temps tonight. This HAS to be very close to the record for latest freeze down there, if it isn't the actual record.

Impressive coldspell for this time of the year. This cold air is coming straight from the north pole. Crazy stuff. Lots of records are going to be broken.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 37F under cloudy skies w snowflurries on and off.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At least over here the temp should only reach the low 30s as sunrise nears. Michigan may be in the 20s all night.

Michigan will really bear the brunt of this cold spell and hurt their crop. I’m worried it may be devastating. Europe saw a lot of crop failures last Spring and caused prices to spike and food shortages.

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At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 41 the DP is only 13 at this time and with winds gusting to 30 MPH yes there is a wind chill. And at 2 PM the report from Bellaire. MI was heavy snow with a temperature of 29. And at the Sault it was 31 with light snow falling. Not a nice day for the merry month of May.

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At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 41 the DP is only 13 at this time and with winds gusting to 30 MPH yes there is a wind chill. And at 2 PM the report from Bellaire. MI was heavy snow with a temperature of 29. And at the Sault it was 31 with light snow falling. Not a nice day for the merry month of May.

That is true Arctic origin air my friend!  Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance?  I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

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That is true Arctic origin air my friend!  Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance?  I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

I was wondering this same. No I have not seen him on here for a while. 

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That is true Arctic origin air my friend!  Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance?  I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

I find myself "forgetting" about the forum during periods of boring weather, I hope that's the case with him.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Attm, moderate snow w temps at 29F. Grassy surfaces, rooftops and cartops are all snow covered. Wow! Impressive for this time of the year. It is windy as well. Wcf now in the upper teens.

 

I think we broke a record snowfall today. I will confirm on that. Lows tanite going for the record as well. Here in Macomb, 20-25F and mid to upper 20s for Detroit Metro.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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coldpush.jpg?v=at&w=980&h=551

How often do you see this in May.  Just incredible!

 

Check out the historic snowstorm in the New England states. A Bomb Cyclone! Someone there will get buried under a ft or more.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That is true Arctic origin air my friend! Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance? I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

I asked a similar question awhile back, maybe a few weeks ago by now. He posted regularly, and suddenly quit. But my thoughts are the same as yours!
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It appears we bottomed out in the upper 20s, as expected.

 

The latest Euro is very stormy next Wed/Thu as the warmth tries to return.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It appears there was some light snow reported back home near my place from Lake Effect!  I wish I was there to experience this because it would have been the latest lake effect snow to fall so late in the season.  Just thinking about that is incredible.  #SpringSnow  #PolarVortex

 

 

FEATURE05092020.jpg?w=520

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Who's ready for some legit warmth??? A summer like pattern is looking more and more promising for a lot of our eastern members as we move through the middle and later parts of May.  One of the LRC's signature troughs is aimed to target the west coast later next week and roll out of the Rockies sometime between the 20th-25th and likely spark the seasons first legit widespread severe wx threat for the heartland.  Mult-day storm threat??? I believe so as the 500mb pattern setting up is one I was thinking we would see earlier on this season but the colder air lingered longer into April and pressed farther south than expected. 

 

As the jet continues to weaken, these troughs coming into the west will likely begin to ignite the atmosphere for the 2nd half of May for our central/southern Sub members.  I'm imagining a warmer and much more humid atmosphere to develop later next week and into Memorial Day weekend.  It'll feel like Summer for a lot of folks.  Ya'll finally ready???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Freeze Warning.

 

 

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY...

 

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures between 29 and 32 degrees

expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east

central and south central Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...Late tonight into Sunday morning

 

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other

sensitive vegetation.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

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The overnight low here at my house was 26 and that looks to be the official low at GRR as well. Most locations in lower Michigan had at least a trace of snow fall yesterday and that set records at many locations for May 9th. At this time it is windy but with mostly clear skies with a temperature of 36 here. 

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