Niko Posted May 7, 2020 Report Share Posted May 7, 2020 Freeze Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 MIZ053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-080830- /O.NEW.KDTX.FZ.W.0001.200509T0400Z-200509T1300Z/ Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland- Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 353 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan where the growing season has started, mainly along and south of the I-69 corridor. * WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 7, 2020 Report Share Posted May 7, 2020 Long duration cold advection/north-northwest winds then kick intonight through Saturday morning. Steep low level lapse ratesdeveloping as 700 MB cold pool of -20 to -23 C swings through Fridayafternoon, coupled with moisture flux off the Great Lakes should besufficient for scattered shower activity. With 850 MB temps loweringbelow -8 C, precip type should trend to all snow, but noaccumulation expected during the daytime hours, as surface tempsstill sneak into the low to mid 40s with intervals of sun.Loss of daytime heating and unfavorable northwest flow for lakeeffect should lead to clearing Friday night, with lows falling intomid/upper 20s across most locations, per 00z Euro MOS. Still couldsee some snow showers across THE northern Thumb region with LakeSuperior-Michigan-Saginaw Bay connection which lingers into Saturdaymorning. Trough axis exits east during Saturday, with significantheight rises and moderate amount of warm advection taking place as850 MB temps warm to around -5 C by days end, supporting max temps inthe mid to upper 40s.Next round of 500 MB height falls already tracking through theMidwest Saturday night-Sunday morning, with the Euro and GFSreversing courses, as the 00z GFS and bulk of its ensemble membersshow surface low tracking through southern Lower Michigan during theday Sunday. The 00z Euro is now slower and more compact with theupper wave, still lingering over Iowa Sunday morning before slowlydampening out and tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night. TheUKmet is slower like the EURO, but is significantly farther north,tracking low along the southern Michigan border. While the Canadianis weaker and faster, closer to the GFS. Thus, still really can`t golikely pops or greater for a cold rain until the timing is finedtuned. Unusually cold air for May standards then follows for earlynext week, with 850 MB temps hovering in the mid negative singlenumbers. There is a chance for some snow to mix in or change to all snow w this system. Just amazing stuff. The big snow will be way east of my area where NYS n New England will get the brunt of it. Hoping we can get Spring back after this cold snap. I also have a strong feeling that next Winter season will be severe. I don't have any data or science to prove it. Just a gut feeling! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 7, 2020 Report Share Posted May 7, 2020 12z Euro once again backing off on the warmup. It seems the 00z runs are showing the warmth and the 12z runs keeps it cooler. GFS has been more consistent with the warming trend, I can only hope that the GFS is correct. I've noticed that difference when tracking winter storms on the Euro's 00z/12z runs. Glad to hear I'm not the only one that notices this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 We had a thunderstorm here about 6:45 pm. Video from my Twitter page. https://twitter.com/toddwayneveal/status/1258550790920105984?s=21 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Well its definitely raining Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Omega my rom she’s and I are drunk and playing in rain 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Omega my rom she’s and I are drunk and playing in rainUsually you post in the complaint thread when you're drunk. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 For Saturday night into Sunday morning: ...temperatures may fall to near or below freezing Saturday eveningacross central MN, changing the precip to all snow. Numerousensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are showing accumulation,mostly along and north of I-94, and it is certainly not out ofthe question with this occurring at night. There is still much uncertainty beyond this such as where the axisof heaviest precip will set up, how cold temps actually get, andthe timing of the transition. For now can`t really forecast morethan an inch anywhere with these factors, but it`s lookingincreasingly likely 2 to maybe 3 inches fall somewhere near ornorth of I-94. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 00Z GFS brings in warmer air on the 14th and locks it in for the following 10 days. Prolonged period of temps in the 70s and some 80s in the extended. Hope that is the case 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 A little bored today and looking up some all time records. And some i find to be truly astounding. In the month of July in Cedar Rapids, a record high has been broken only ONE single time since 1940. That was in 2012. Incredible. And if you look at Burlington, IA they had 14 consecutive days in 1936 with record highs, and more amazing is all 14 still stand today. From July 4th through the 17th. The last record high broken in July in Burlington was in 1988. Incredible stuff. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/climategraph_month_image_table_cid July Records.PNG Burlington.PNGPart of the reason is rainfall has increased quite a bit across the upper Midwest in the last few decades which increases humidity and humid air doesn't heat up as easily. They say heavy rainfall events are much more common than they used to be. Overnight lows also are warmer as a result, but highs aren't as hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Looking into the extended, the models are starting to point towards a strong SW Flow aloft and an impressive summer like ridge into the central/eastern CONUS Day 10-15 and that will lead us towards Memorial Day weekend. For those states who are still on lock down, this sorta sucks because all parks/lakes will have bans I'm sure while others will not. We could really see a flip towards Summer by this time for a majority of the Sub Forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Usually you post in the complaint thread when you're drunk.Omg I can't believed I posted here Im dying 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Light snow currently w temps at 34F. Highs today upper 30s to barely hitting the 40F mark. Freeze warning for tanite as temps drop to 20-25F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Waterloo will be flirting with a record low Saturday morning. Record is 27 and the forecast is 28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Light snow currently w temps at 34F. Highs today upper 30s to barely hitting the 40F mark. Freeze warning for tanite as temps drop to 20-25F.This is going to be interesting to see if next Autumn our region see's some early snows and if there is indeed a short period between Last Flake and First Flake. Meanwhile, some record lows being set across the Upper MW/GL's which sets the tone over the next few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 At this time the official reading at GRR is 36. Here at my house it is 38 with partly cloudy skies. The DP is currently in the teens that and the wind just makes it feel that much colder. Today will be one of the coldest maximums for this date. The record coldest high for today is 41 set in 1947. The forecast high for today is at 42. The average high for today is 67. The record high for today is a warm 89 set in 1926. The record low for tomorrow AM is 23 set in 1947. In 2nd place is 27 set in 1966. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 This is going to be interesting to see if next Autumn our region see's some early snows and if there is indeed a short period between Last Flake and First Flake. Meanwhile, some record lows being set across the Upper MW/GL's which sets the tone over the next few days.I have a strong feeling we will see early snows (although not sure if that bodes well for our entire Winter season) but, very cold temperatures to follow and snowy conditions could be possible. Late season cold and snow usually leads towards that way, or most of the time. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Tom, What is interesting also is that not only do we break record low temperatures here in Detroit today, but also snowfall record as well. Note: Interestingly, today's record snowfall for Detroit is a trace, set back in 1947, so any snow Detroit gets today, or even flurries for that matter, will tie our daily record snowfall. Today will be a day of broken records in the Metro area. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Temp got down to 37 this morning and forecast low for Sunday morning is 31. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Anyone want to go to Maine? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 The Nashville area is seeing freezing temps tonight. This HAS to be very close to the record for latest freeze down there, if it isn't the actual record. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 At least over here the temp should only reach the low 30s as sunrise nears. Michigan may be in the 20s all night. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 The Nashville area is seeing freezing temps tonight. This HAS to be very close to the record for latest freeze down there, if it isn't the actual record.Impressive coldspell for this time of the year. This cold air is coming straight from the north pole. Crazy stuff. Lots of records are going to be broken. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Attm, its 37F under cloudy skies w snowflurries on and off. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 At least over here the temp should only reach the low 30s as sunrise nears. Michigan may be in the 20s all night.Michigan will really bear the brunt of this cold spell and hurt their crop. I’m worried it may be devastating. Europe saw a lot of crop failures last Spring and caused prices to spike and food shortages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 41 the DP is only 13 at this time and with winds gusting to 30 MPH yes there is a wind chill. And at 2 PM the report from Bellaire. MI was heavy snow with a temperature of 29. And at the Sault it was 31 with light snow falling. Not a nice day for the merry month of May. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 Still looks like accumulating snow a real possibility for Saturday night. Currently 0.5” of snow in the point but higher totals very possible. The last flakes flew on May 19th last year, so sadly this would be an improvement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 41 the DP is only 13 at this time and with winds gusting to 30 MPH yes there is a wind chill. And at 2 PM the report from Bellaire. MI was heavy snow with a temperature of 29. And at the Sault it was 31 with light snow falling. Not a nice day for the merry month of May.That is true Arctic origin air my friend! Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance? I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 8, 2020 Report Share Posted May 8, 2020 That is true Arctic origin air my friend! Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance? I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.I was wondering this same. No I have not seen him on here for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 That is true Arctic origin air my friend! Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance? I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.I find myself "forgetting" about the forum during periods of boring weather, I hope that's the case with him. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 Attm, moderate snow w temps at 29F. Grassy surfaces, rooftops and cartops are all snow covered. Wow! Impressive for this time of the year. It is windy as well. Wcf now in the upper teens. I think we broke a record snowfall today. I will confirm on that. Lows tanite going for the record as well. Here in Macomb, 20-25F and mid to upper 20s for Detroit Metro. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 How often do you see this in May. Just incredible! Check out the historic snowstorm in the New England states. A Bomb Cyclone! Someone there will get buried under a ft or more. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 That is true Arctic origin air my friend! Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance? I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.I asked a similar question awhile back, maybe a few weeks ago by now. He posted regularly, and suddenly quit. But my thoughts are the same as yours! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 Jaster was last active on 4/22/20. I've admittedly been absent-minded to the weather side of things so I haven't been as detailed as usual. I hope and pray he's doing ok. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 With clear skies the current temperature here is now at 29 and a DP of 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 It appears we bottomed out in the upper 20s, as expected. The latest Euro is very stormy next Wed/Thu as the warmth tries to return. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 It appears there was some light snow reported back home near my place from Lake Effect! I wish I was there to experience this because it would have been the latest lake effect snow to fall so late in the season. Just thinking about that is incredible. #SpringSnow #PolarVortex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 Who's ready for some legit warmth??? A summer like pattern is looking more and more promising for a lot of our eastern members as we move through the middle and later parts of May. One of the LRC's signature troughs is aimed to target the west coast later next week and roll out of the Rockies sometime between the 20th-25th and likely spark the seasons first legit widespread severe wx threat for the heartland. Mult-day storm threat??? I believe so as the 500mb pattern setting up is one I was thinking we would see earlier on this season but the colder air lingered longer into April and pressed farther south than expected. As the jet continues to weaken, these troughs coming into the west will likely begin to ignite the atmosphere for the 2nd half of May for our central/southern Sub members. I'm imagining a warmer and much more humid atmosphere to develop later next week and into Memorial Day weekend. It'll feel like Summer for a lot of folks. Ya'll finally ready??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 Freeze Warning. ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures between 29 and 32 degrees expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...Late tonight into Sunday morning * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 9, 2020 Report Share Posted May 9, 2020 The overnight low here at my house was 26 and that looks to be the official low at GRR as well. Most locations in lower Michigan had at least a trace of snow fall yesterday and that set records at many locations for May 9th. At this time it is windy but with mostly clear skies with a temperature of 36 here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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