May 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

The line is coming thru right now. Your routine thunderstorm pretty much. 62.1°F.

Looks like I am in the clear w no risk potential. Too far north. You, on the other hand, could be seeing some nice storms if they hold together. Good luck w those!

[Niko]

Attm, it is cloudy w some very dim sunshine trying to break through. Temps are stuck in the mid 50s. I have a feeling that WF neva made it north of my area.

[Stormy]

Storms seem to be trying to develop off to my west and southwest. Finally one severe warned cell slowly approaching Des Moines and is part of those few storms that were festering in sw. Iowa for the longest time. I'm on nw edge of a flash flood watch as well. The front seems to be hung up right overhead with nearly calm winds.

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like I am in the clear w no risk potential. Too far north. You, on the other hand, could be seeing some nice storms if they hold together. Good luck w those!

I think the biggest potential already passed here in that last line. Sadly I think I'll be too capped for anything significant tonight.

[Niko]

This for my area....

Flood Watch

Flood WatchNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI345 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-150830-/O.NEW.KDTX.FA.A.0003.200515T0200Z-200515T1400Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe345 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING...The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a* Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Michigan, including the  following areas, Genesee, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb,  Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne.* From 10 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning* Heavy rain that occurred this morning through early afternoon is  expected to be followed by another round tonight into Friday  morning. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch occurred today across the  watch area with another 1 to 2 inches likely tonight. Locally  higher amounts are possible.* Flooding of roads and streets may occur, especially in urban and  other prone areas. Small creeks and rivers will rise considerably  with some possibly overflowing their banks.

[Hawkeye]

Storms seem to be trying to develop off to my west and southwest. Finally one severe warned cell slowly approaching Des Moines and is part of those few storms that were festering in sw. Iowa for the longest time. I'm on nw edge of a flash flood watch as well. The front seems to be hung up right overhead with nearly calm winds.

 

The question is will the storms make it up to Cedar Rapids, or will the best storms veer more easterly along I-80?  

[Stormy]

Suddenly a small storm popped just to my north with a c/g lightning strike about once a minute. I like how storms are popping south and west of Des Moines. Hopefully they can organize till they get here. It's very humid outside and mild with some clearing passing just to the south.

[Stormy]

The question is will the storms make it up to Cedar Rapids, or will the best storms veer more easterly along I-80?

 

Many of the CAMS show the heaviest even scraping by just south of me, but it would be my luck for something heavy passing just north as well. Will be fun watching the radar. I might try mowing some grass yet.

[Hawkeye]

The question is will the storms make it up to Cedar Rapids, or will the best storms veer more easterly along I-80?  

 

It appears "veer east" is the answer.

[Stormy]

It's quickly becoming linear. The big cell will probably cross next county south of me.

[james1976]

The entire area of rain/storms has had development on the north edge so now I'm getting steady rain and some thunder. 2 evenings in a row!

[Stormy]

That stationary front is a bit to far south over Washington county now, and that severe cell is moving right along it.

[snowstorm83]

It’s a bit muggy out this evening for the first time this year.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a tame 0.28" this evening, boosting my 24-hr total to 0.72".  I thought we were done, but a cell has popped to the west again.

[Hawkeye]

I thought we were done, but a cell has popped to the west again.

 

Of course, this new red cell appears to be lifting north of me.

[Tom]

What a night of active weather back home as I flip through social media.  I gotta ask my neighbor to check up on my place because there were some nasty storms that blew through last night!  ORD set a new daily rainfall record yesterday and there was a corridor of 3-4"+ of rain right through my back yard.  From Tornado warnings just south of Chicago, severe storms, and lots of flooding..it was quite a 24-36 hour period of weather.

 

The storms were electric and this was a nasty lightning bolt strike!

[westMJim]

There was more rain to the south of me, but here at my house I recorded 1.38" of total rain fall for this system.  With all of this rain that mean it will be grass cutting time this weekend. There was a time yesterday afternoon that it was just misting and at that time I planted my tomato plants as they were getting too big for the containers I started them in. I have only a few and have enough containers to cover them with so unless we get a hard freeze in June I should be good with them. At this time it is 60 here with a DP of 59 with some light fog.

[james1976]

My total this week was 1.12". Today looks to be really nice.

[Stormy]

Of course, this new red cell appears to be lifting north of me.

Well your luck is about like mine. No solid hits. I got only 0.43" last evening for a 24 hour total of 0.82".

 

Edit: Actually had 0.88" as received a bit more rain after midnight. Had brought my other gauges inside as thought it was over, with radar showing clear around midnight. (Saw on my digital gauge that it rained some more.)

[Tom]

Here's a quick summary from the NWS in Chicago...is this going to be a common theme this summer with slow moving stalled fronts???  Based on what I'm seeing from the latest data off the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2, the next 4 weeks will be quite wet over a large area of our Sub.  I'm not to sure we will see any sustained heat if the soils moisten up as an active pattern picks up.

 

 

[Beltrami Island]

A few days ago it looked like a monsoon was coming to the Dakotas and Minnesota for next week with a strong SW flow ahead of an approaching strong upper level and surface low pressure system.  The Euro was churning out bands of 6"+ qpf thru D10 on consecutive runs.   Now a strong ridge looks to occur over the northern plains.  Reading the FGF discussion progression over the last few days is interesting, they  go from mentioning guidance of 99th percentile PWATS to upper level ridging and slight chances of storms for the same time period.  

 

I always feel somewhat validated when large QPF events in the extended fall on their face during the warm seasons.  It makes me feel better to know it doesn't just happen to D6+ snowstorms in the winter.   

[Niko]

Attm, 61F under some hazy sunshine. Picked up some decent rainfall yesterday, roughly around an 1" or so. No severe weather as that WF was unable to make it this far north. Anyhow, a little break now until Sunday. More hvy rain follows into Monday at the latest.

 

Looks like the trough will hang in tough next week and unfortunately, the 80s wont make it IMBY, but at least the 70s will, but not until the end of the week. Looks like 60s will dominate the area through midweek (UGH). Sunshine will be available, so overall, not too shabby of a week, although, will have to keep an eye on some wet weather from time to time throughout that timeframe as that cut-off low will not be moving too much.

[Niko]

Here we go.....

 

Arthur will make weather very interesting down there.....stay tuned!

[Minny_Weather]

Ouch. Both the KLOT and KDVN radars have been knocked out.

[Niko]

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/piQ7KNoyPw7WyQjUIKNuQA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTcyMA--/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/vCSlJmhoTQUap22GxUBxuA--~B/aD0xMjAwO3c9MTYwMDtzbT0xO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/EN/business_insider_articles_888/64b07bc667ec8121610f9fb4f25ca77d

 

New York City

 

Just amazing in how the air cleans up by not polluting it as much. The side-by-side photos you are seeing above illustrate how much cleaner the air feels and looks. The pandemic has greatly reduced the number of planes and helicopters above the city ever since this "Pandemic" started, so the right pic clearly states how much cleaner the atmosphere is, whereas on the left pic, not so much.

In 2019, Bendheim captured air traffic by accident while trying to photograph star trails, which are "the continuous paths created by stars, produced during long-exposure photos,"

In the photo from 2020, the lines are from star trails, with no interruptions from air traffic. What a difference! Wow!

[St Paul Storm]

I've been watching next week's warmup and I hadn't even noticed the soaker coming tomorrow into Sunday. Looks like 1"+ is a good bet based on the current models. That should put a nice dent into the developing drought conditions close by.  

[Niko]

Ouch. Both the KLOT and KDVN radars have been knocked out.

I saw that aggressive line of storms yesterday on radar targeting Ohio. That was a heck of a line.

[westMJim]

At this time Grand Rapids is still waiting for its first 80° Last year we did not have our 1^st one until June 7^th the last time Grand Rapids reached 80 or better was back on September 30^th last year. That means it has been 229 days since the last time it has reached 80 here at Grand Rapids.

[Minny_Weather]

I saw that aggressive line of storms yesterday on radar targeting Ohio. That was a heck of a line.

Yeah. I only got clipped by the far northern edge of it sadly. Had some brief heavy rain and a couple rumbles of thunder but nothing more.

[Tom]

A lot of widespread heavy rain fell across the ag belt of the MW...

[bud2380]

Big change on the models for tomorrow in eastern Iowa. Now models are dry almost all day. Temps get into the low to mid 70s. What was looking like a washout now looks like a really nice day.

[Tom]

Looks like more heavy rain is possible tonight into Sunday for a lot of those who were drenched this past week across N IL and into N IN.  Parts of MN/WI will get a nice soaking in the defo zone.  It's interesting to see such a system in late Spring spinning up into a rather strong storm over the GL's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quite an impressive closed ULL...

 

 

[Tom]

Another deluge of heavy rain (2-4"??) is looking more likely for N IL...most of the Lower Lakes region is going to hit pretty good...

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

^ I like those maps. I hate that it’s happening over the weekend, but beggars can’t be choosers.

[MIKEKC]

Tom,

 

Geez, KC missed all those rain chances this week...again. Drought is expanding across KS and was gotten worse in the last month. I’m 3 inches below average and running 4 degrees colder than average for meteorological spring.

 

Dry summer heading towards KC? Full irrigation will be needed this week as the forecast is dry and warming up by late week.

[Tom]

[CentralNebWeather]

I was very fortunate that my county got about 0.75” of rain this morning. Much more just to my west and northwest. The rain did not keep going East. Drought conditions have been expanding. Floods last summer to dry in places now.

[Niko]

Attm, mostly cloudy w temps at 63F

[Niko]

Yeah. I only got clipped by the far northern edge of it sadly. Had some brief heavy rain and a couple rumbles of thunder but nothing more.

Same here. Just hvy rain. Hopefully I see severe weather tomorrow as that WF is expected to lift north of my area b4 that CF moves by Monday and clear things up.

[Bryan1117]

Tom,

 

Geez, KC missed all those rain chances this week...again. Drought is expanding across KS and was gotten worse in the last month. I’m 3 inches below average and running 4 degrees colder than average for meteorological spring.

 

Dry summer heading towards KC? Full irrigation will be needed this week as the forecast is dry and warming up by late week.

Mike, we are dealing with the same thing in the Omaha metro... we are already a couple inches below the annual average at this point in the year and this pattern continues to do us no favors... while drenching those just east of us.

 

We missed out on the rain on Thursday for the most part, and now the appreciable rains of around a half to one inch for today is looking more isolated in nature. The forecast for the upcoming week is not looking great for rainfall chances as the ridge sets up shop for several days.