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May 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Miami Intl Airport received 7.08" of rain in just 5 hours. 14.67" in the last 3 days alone!  

What a night of active weather back home as I flip through social media.  I gotta ask my neighbor to check up on my place because there were some nasty storms that blew through last night!  ORD set a

We had a thunderstorm here about 6:45 pm. Video from my Twitter page.   https://twitter.com/toddwayneveal/status/1258550790920105984?s=21

Posted Images

NOAA:

 

An even colder shot of air will advance into the area late in the
week as upper low feature that evolves over Hudson Bay early in the
week eventually sweeps south/southeast through Ontario into the
northern Great Lakes. The air mass associated with this features
will be quite cold for the second week of May and may very well
bring freeze concerns by early Saturday morning after a light frost
or two in spots during the course of next week. Temperature will
struggle to 50 degrees Friday and pretty much Saturday well short of
average high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s. The cold front will
also maintain unsettled weather conditions with another period of
light precipitation focused on Friday. It is not completely out of
the question that a few snowflakes may mix in the the rain showers
early Friday morning.   :lol:

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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There is a mention by the NWS of some snow for next weekend. While it is somewhat uncommon for it to snow in May it has happened in the past. And this may come as a surprise but the dates of next weekend May 8 thru the 10 have the highest snow fall records for Grand Rapids recorded history. For May 8 the record is just a trace and that has happened in 1980, 1954 and 1947. Now for May 9 the record is 5.5” that fell in 1923 and for May 10 the record is also 5.5” and that fell in 1902. The lasts snow fall at Grand Rapids that I can find is a trace that was reported to fall on May 26, 1961.

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After forenoon clouds moved out midday it was simply gorgeous with light and variable winds and the temperature hitting 76°. Likely our last warm day in awhile.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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I'm happy to see the models all showing more rainfall now with the next system starting later today. It will be a cooler rain, but I'll take it as we need it. Severe storms are firing in the battle zone in Kansas currently.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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The last three days of 70s were pretty nice.  It'll be a while before we see 70 again.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If the GFS is close to right, we will be well below normal for most of May.  Over the next 16 days, temps look to only hit above normal 1 day on May 15th. Average high temperature on May 15th in Iowa City is 71.5.  GFS shows temps in the mid 70s that day.  Otherwise every other day on the 6z GFS shows below normal temps or possibly very near normal on some days.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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It looks like a fun day down in eastern Kansas, then across Missouri.  I love waking up to storms, with more storms through the day.  We'll likely have to wait til lay May into June for that.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow! Do you eat a lot of potatoes etc or are you a produce farmer and sell at a farmer's market or something? Good luck anyway! Home raised is the best!

Thanks a lot! My wife and I live in my hometown and my parents are really close to our house! Between my family, parents, and a few other close members we finish them up right around this time of the year. I just have a few left from last year's crop. You can't beat a home grown potato I'll tell you that much! My wife then does the canning with everything else I grow in the garden and sells it at our farmers market later in the year! 

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Attm, its 45F under cloudy skies. What a shock to the system this is!

 

Widespread frost tanite w temps falling at or below freezing! Snow/rain mix possible by late in the week! No accumulations are anticipated as for now. Temps by the weekend are expected to crash into the 20s w a hard freeze likely to occur.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI401 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-050900-Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-401 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightWidespread frost will be possible late tonight generally north of theM-59 corridor. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower 30s withsome locations in the Thumb dropping into the upper 20s for a shorttime. A Frost Advisory may be required for parts of the area if skiesremain clear enough to support these cold temperatures.

Discussion:

Models remain very consistent with the handling of this polar low as
it strengthens and drops south into the region Thursday night into
Friday and then pivots through the area on through Saturday. Shower
activity will increase on the front side of this system late
Thursday night into Friday and while a majority of the precipitation
will fall as rain, a mix or rain and snow cannot be ruled out early
Friday morning as the cold air begins to deepen over the area. That
said, precipitation should be rather minor given the dry nature of
this arctic airmass.

This cold air mass will be quite significant for the second week of
May as 850mb temps are forecast to drop through the negative single
digits Friday, record or near record cold at that level per DTX
upper air climatology and then continue to -10c or less within the
core of cold air Friday night into early Saturday. This core of cold
air will bring an increasing risk for a hard freeze to the area to
some extent early Friday morning, but especially by early Saturday
morning as widespread 20s look pretty likely at this point.

Only minor moderation is expected once this upper low shears/pivots
to the east/southeast as the overall upper trough remains in place
on Sunday. In fact, another significant northern stream shortwave is
expected to dig into the region just beyond this forecast period
maintaining the generally cool mid May conditions into next week.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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What do the years 1903, 1907, 1924, 1917, 1945, 1947. and 1997 have in common? Well they all had either a cold May and record lows in May and all of them had colder than average summers. Well "cooler" than average. Many had frost in Northern lower Michigan and the UP all summer long. But note the following winters some were average and some were warmer than average. But that is the way things go. Do not plant the tomato plants until late May or June this year. and as for the fruit trees?? it depends on how far along they are and just how cold it get this weekend. At this time it is clear and 47 at GRR and 50 here at my house

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Big storms in KC today, mostly on the south side. Pretty good bow echo just formed in the last hour south of KC with 70-80 mph winds. Damage reports are coming in now.

 

KC needed some rain, we were running below average the last 4-5 weeks. Not dry, but not wet either.

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It appears my area will get a decent soaking overnight through Tuesday as a clipper-like disturbance pivots through the state.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cherry tree is on the lower right, apple on the left, (notice my anemometer up on the windmill) plus one other photo from yesterday.

IMG-4853.jpg

 

IMG-4859.jpg

Your area looks to be a little more advanced in the green up than it is here in west Michigan, But there are some fruit tree blossoms out and if it gets down into the low 20's this weekend there could be a lot of damage. 28 is kind of the cut off point.

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42 and cloudy here at this time. Still looks like there could be a hard freeze here over the weekend and with lows in the lower 20's that would do a number on this years fruit crop in SW Michigan.

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Cherry tree is on the lower right, apple on the left, (notice my anemometer up on the windmill) plus one other photo from yesterday.

IMG-4853.jpg

 

IMG-4859.jpg

 

Love the pics!  I just remember seeing you post pictures during the Winter of the snowy scenes and now seeing these photos it sure does look like Spring has Sprung.  I enjoy waking up early in the morning and watching the sun rise with a little dew on freshly cut grass....ahhhh, the simple things in life we all need to enjoy...your back yard reminds me of my mothers side of my family back in Poland that have open farmland.  I miss the smells of the open rural farmland.

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Cherry tree is on the lower right, apple on the left, (notice my anemometer up on the windmill) plus one other photo from yesterday.IMG-4853.jpgIMG-4859.jpg

Man, you guys are in full bloom down there. Those pics look nothing like here in E/C MN. I don’t even have buds on some of my trees yet. Doesn’t help that we are running quite dry here this spring.

 

Great pics though!

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Wind wind wind. 47.9°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Most of the modeling is pointing towards a warmer and MUCH wetter period starting around the 15th as a very active period ignites.  Good signs for the farmers who have planted and those who will be finishing up.  It's all about timing as they say..

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

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We'll need some consistent warmth later in the month to get the plants going.

 

A solid rain band is parked over my area today.  So far I'm at 0.50".  This would have been a nice snow event a few months ago.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We'll need some consistent warmth later in the month to get the plants going.

 

A solid rain band is parked over my area today. So far I'm at 0.50". This would have been a nice snow event a few months ago.

I was thinking that earlier when I checked out the radar. Would have been great in the winter. Nice slow moving system. Curious what my rain gauge will have in it when i get home later.
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Attm, its a very cool 51F under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Snowshowers possible by weeks end w highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s w record breaking cold on tap. Some locales to my north may not get outta the 30s for HIGHS by weeks end. Man, this blows! :wacko:

 

 

Okay, back to my Zoom Meetings!

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I forgot to post that I received 0.75” of rain Monday morning. Things are nice and green. Most trees have now budded, some are farther along than others. My trees are at about 50%.

I just hope the coldspell coming wont damage the leaf growth or perhaps create leaf problems, most importantly the succulent twigs on most trees. I have fruit trees on my property, so I am a little concern about that (although, I do plan on covering them).

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I just hope the coldspell coming wont damage the leaf growth or perhaps create leaf problems, most importantly the succulent twigs on most trees. I have fruit trees on my property, so I am a little concern about that (although, I do plan on covering them).

NWS Hastings seems to think there will be several frost chances in the next week. However, wind and clouds might keep things into the mid 30’s. Around here I’ve never really seen much damage to trees due to late frosts, and we can have them into the 3rd week of May. I’m sure those with gardens will be covering them.

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The models were certainly right to place the system/rain pivot point right over east-central Iowa.  It has been raining since last night.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS shows Cincy getting 2.5" of snow on Friday, May 8. The latest snowfall on record there is 0.2" on May 6.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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My rain total is 0.69".  It was not heavy, but it lasted about 24 hours.  We maxed out at 47º, so it was not pleasant.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Thanks for the comments about my photos guys. I'm a spring type of guy and always look forward to storm season, but we were lacking those in April and that continues. Actually had better storms in March.

 

In other news... the weather was crummy all day, but we needed the rain. I picked up about 0.16" till midnight last night with light rain and mist continuing practically all day, ending with a total of 0.72" by 8:00pm. Looks like the heaviest was just north and east of my location.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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42 and cloudy here at this time. Still looks like there could be a hard freeze here over the weekend and with lows in the lower 20's that would do a number on this years fruit crop in SW Michigan.

That's not good. Spring is kind of a scary time for the orchard folks!

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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My rain total is 0.69".  It was not heavy, but it lasted about 24 hours.  We maxed out at 47º, so it was not pleasant.

I figured you'd have more than me, but I guess it kept drizzling and adding up even when radar wasn't showing much since small droplets don't reflect well.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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The HEAT is ON!  Another Excessive Heat Warning in place here today and tomorrow as some locations in the valley look to top out around 107F!  Twilight is just being to emerge as the suns rays slowly lighten up the night sky.  It's a very comfortable 68F right now....its amazing how volatile the temperature swings are here in the desert.  Once the sun comes up, the temps will surge 30+ degrees...some places may see a 40 degree temp swing today.

 

Fephic050620.jpg?w=497

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Rather good model agreement that the pattern will be shifting towards a SW flow aloft by mid month allowing for a trough to build into the SW and usher in more warmth for the eastern Sub that has been stuck in an abysmal chilly pattern.  It finally appears that it will cool down back to normal or even below normal for the desert regions.  Low 90's will feel sooo much better.  Hopefully by then the governor will open up the pools and gyms!

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Models continuing to show around the 14th for the pattern change into warmer weather.  Both the Euro and GFS in agreement, but the GFS is several degrees warmer.  The GFS even has dewpoints getting into the 70s in the very extended range.  That would be great.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Models continuing to show around the 14th for the pattern change into warmer weather.  Both the Euro and GFS in agreement, but the GFS is several degrees warmer.  The GFS even has dewpoints getting into the 70s in the very extended range.  That would be great.  

That's going to feel tropical...rooting for ya'll to final break the trend of what has been a chilly past 30 days...

 

30dTDeptUS.png

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The HEAT is ON!  Another Excessive Heat Warning in place here today and tomorrow as some locations in the valley look to top out around 107F!  Twilight is just being to emerge as the suns rays slowly lighten up the night sky.  It's a very comfortable 68F right now....its amazing how volatile the temperature swings are here in the desert.  Once the sun comes up, the temps will surge 30+ degrees...some places may see a 40 degree temp swing today.

 

Fephic050620.jpg?w=497

 

Apparently Chicago has moved to NE Ontario?  It is a silly mistake/typo, but still....

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