Jump to content

May 2020 Observations and Discussion


St Paul Storm

Recommended Posts

Not looking to warm up anytime soon.........

 

814temp.new.gif

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, its a very cool 51F under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Snowshowers possible by weeks end w highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s w record breaking cold on tap. Some locales to my north may not get outta the 30s for HIGHS by weeks end. Man, this blows! :wacko:

 

 

Okay, back to my Zoom Meetings!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I forgot to post that I received 0.75” of rain Monday morning. Things are nice and green. Most trees have now budded, some are farther along than others. My trees are at about 50%.

I just hope the coldspell coming wont damage the leaf growth or perhaps create leaf problems, most importantly the succulent twigs on most trees. I have fruit trees on my property, so I am a little concern about that (although, I do plan on covering them).

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just hope the coldspell coming wont damage the leaf growth or perhaps create leaf problems, most importantly the succulent twigs on most trees. I have fruit trees on my property, so I am a little concern about that (although, I do plan on covering them).

NWS Hastings seems to think there will be several frost chances in the next week. However, wind and clouds might keep things into the mid 30’s. Around here I’ve never really seen much damage to trees due to late frosts, and we can have them into the 3rd week of May. I’m sure those with gardens will be covering them.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models were certainly right to place the system/rain pivot point right over east-central Iowa.  It has been raining since last night.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My rain total is 0.69".  It was not heavy, but it lasted about 24 hours.  We maxed out at 47º, so it was not pleasant.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for the comments about my photos guys. I'm a spring type of guy and always look forward to storm season, but we were lacking those in April and that continues. Actually had better storms in March.

 

In other news... the weather was crummy all day, but we needed the rain. I picked up about 0.16" till midnight last night with light rain and mist continuing practically all day, ending with a total of 0.72" by 8:00pm. Looks like the heaviest was just north and east of my location.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 and cloudy here at this time. Still looks like there could be a hard freeze here over the weekend and with lows in the lower 20's that would do a number on this years fruit crop in SW Michigan.

That's not good. Spring is kind of a scary time for the orchard folks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My rain total is 0.69".  It was not heavy, but it lasted about 24 hours.  We maxed out at 47º, so it was not pleasant.

I figured you'd have more than me, but I guess it kept drizzling and adding up even when radar wasn't showing much since small droplets don't reflect well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The HEAT is ON!  Another Excessive Heat Warning in place here today and tomorrow as some locations in the valley look to top out around 107F!  Twilight is just being to emerge as the suns rays slowly lighten up the night sky.  It's a very comfortable 68F right now....its amazing how volatile the temperature swings are here in the desert.  Once the sun comes up, the temps will surge 30+ degrees...some places may see a 40 degree temp swing today.

 

Fephic050620.jpg?w=497

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rather good model agreement that the pattern will be shifting towards a SW flow aloft by mid month allowing for a trough to build into the SW and usher in more warmth for the eastern Sub that has been stuck in an abysmal chilly pattern.  It finally appears that it will cool down back to normal or even below normal for the desert regions.  Low 90's will feel sooo much better.  Hopefully by then the governor will open up the pools and gyms!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models continuing to show around the 14th for the pattern change into warmer weather.  Both the Euro and GFS in agreement, but the GFS is several degrees warmer.  The GFS even has dewpoints getting into the 70s in the very extended range.  That would be great.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models continuing to show around the 14th for the pattern change into warmer weather.  Both the Euro and GFS in agreement, but the GFS is several degrees warmer.  The GFS even has dewpoints getting into the 70s in the very extended range.  That would be great.  

That's going to feel tropical...rooting for ya'll to final break the trend of what has been a chilly past 30 days...

 

30dTDeptUS.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The HEAT is ON!  Another Excessive Heat Warning in place here today and tomorrow as some locations in the valley look to top out around 107F!  Twilight is just being to emerge as the suns rays slowly lighten up the night sky.  It's a very comfortable 68F right now....its amazing how volatile the temperature swings are here in the desert.  Once the sun comes up, the temps will surge 30+ degrees...some places may see a 40 degree temp swing today.

 

Fephic050620.jpg?w=497

 

Apparently Chicago has moved to NE Ontario?  It is a silly mistake/typo, but still....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This could be a tough weekend for the area fruit farmers and for us the consumers later in the year. The NWS is still thinking that the lows could be in the low to mid 20’s this weekend and even some upper teens look to be in play. The critical temperatures are 28 and below for a lot damage and if it gets below 24 for several hours it could be nearly complete damage to most fruit for this year. It looks like to our north the colder April has held back the budding and thus there looks to be less chance of any major damage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is clear and 39 here at this time. While in the SW it is going to be record heat here in the Great Lakes that is not going to be the case. This is from this mornings GRR discussion and it is not  pretty

"TEMPERATURES  

ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. FRUIT TREES  
IN OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS, FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE MOST  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD AS THESE ARE THE ZONES THAT HAVE THE FURTHEST  
DEVELOPMENT. THE FREEZE WARNING IS FOR ALL ZONES THAT ARE CURRENTLY  
ACTIVE/IN THE GROWING SEASON, ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM  
PENTWATER TO ALMA.  
 
AS A SIDE NOTE ON THE COLD, 850MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT AS COLD AS IT GETS. THE ECMWF IS  
FORECASTING -11 TO -13C AIR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA.  
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WEBSITE THIS WILL BE ABOUT  
THE COLDEST IT HAS EVER BEEN AND SOUNDING RECORDS FOR DTX GO BACK  
TO THE 1940S, INCLUDING DTX/MTC AND FNT AS SOUNDING SITES."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Excessive Heat Warnings in the desert Southwest to Freeze Warnings/Watch's in the MW/Gl's....our nation remains divided (even in the wx dept)...looks like back home a Hard Freeze is in the cards with near record cold.

 

Tab2FileL.png?d91fcda25d7c9d3d2a11a45256

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The JMA weeklies are in this morning and are advertising quite a wet signal for the majority of our Sub.  As average high temps continue to climb, near seasonal norms will start "feeling" much better as we progress through the rest of met Spring.

 

Week 2...

 

Y202005.D0612_gl2.png

 

Y202005.D0612_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...

 

Y202005.D0612_gl2.png

 

Y202005.D0612_gl0.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Freeze Watch in effect for Saturday morning. Freeze Warning in effect here for tomorrow morning. Temps as low as 28F expected. Thankfully the UHI should protect the metro from falling lower than 30F. Additional freeze/frost possible each day into Tuesday.

 

Critical fire weather today with RH as low as 15%. We’re very dry so far this spring, with no big precip chances on the horizon. I’m about to whip out the sprinklers and start watering my lawn. Quite the change from the last few years when we set precip records in April and May.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Freeze Watch in effect for Saturday morning. Freeze Warning in effect here for tomorrow morning. Temps as low as 28F expected. Thankfully the UHI should protect the metro from falling lower than 30F. Additional freeze/frost possible each day into Tuesday.

 

Critical fire weather today with RH as low as 15%. We’re very dry so far this spring, with no big precip chances on the horizon. I’m about to whip out the sprinklers and start watering my lawn. Quite the change from the last few years when we set precip records in April and May.

If this indeed is a trend, the blocking pattern up north could persist throughout the Summer and leave you guys up north high and dry.  I'm pretty sure once the "ring of fire" pattern sets up at times this summer you can score some well-timed bouts of severe wx.  Last night's model trends have gotten cooler and drier for our northern tier and warmer/wetter for our southern members.  It remains to be seen if a well-timed warm up transpires for Memorial Day weekend.  The EPS says "yes", while the GEFS say "no"...CFSv2/JMA also say "no"....I hope it does get warmer and more enjoyable for you guys.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We will have to see just how cold it really gets on Friday and for the next several days after. At this time a high of 43 per the NWS is in the forecast for tomorrow. The record coldest maximum for May 8th is 41 set in 1947 when a trace of snow was also reported. In 2nd place is 44 set in 1974 in 3rd place 47 set in 1945 and in 4th place is 48 set in 1960. The low for tomorrow night is foretasted to be  27. The record low at Grand Rapids is a cold 23 set in 1974 with 27 set in 1966 in 2nd place followed by 28 in 1966 and 29 in 1977 and 1955. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If this indeed is a trend, the blocking pattern up north could persist throughout the Summer and leave you guys up north high and dry.  I'm pretty sure once the "ring of fire" pattern sets up at times this summer you can score some well-timed bouts of severe wx.  Last night's model trends have gotten cooler and drier for our northern tier and warmer/wetter for our southern members.  It remains to be seen if a well-timed warm up transpires for Memorial Day weekend.  The EPS says "yes", while the GEFS say "no"...CFSv2/JMA also say "no"....I hope it does get warmer and more enjoyable for you guys.

Not sure about rain fall but as to temperatures in the past May's that have been cold have tended to cooler than averages summers. Some examples are  1945, 1960, 1974, 1997 but some have been mixed like 1947 that had cool June and July but a hot August. 1947 up and down. So we shall see how this summer goes. For me it will not be as much fun either way as I work for the local minor league baseball team and it don't look like we will be playing this year. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models continue to target a week from today as the beginning of a warmup.  Warmup to normal that is.  The 15th is when temps really get back to season averages around much of the region.  00z Euro for the 15th below.   The average high for May 15th in Cedar Rapids is 71 per the NWS, so we are finally going to be around normal.  I wish that Pivotal had a maximum temperature map.  I'd like to see the forecasted high temperatures per day, but for the life of me I cannot find a good map of this on any weather model website.  If somebody knows of one let me know.  Instant Weather Maps has it, but they only have the 5 degree contour lines and on a national scale, so it's hard to read.  

 

 

sfct.us_mw.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, its 54F under mostly cloudy skies. Possible record low temps likely for both Detroit and my locale as temps drop into the upper 20s in Detroit and 20-25F for MBY. Snowshowers are also possible tomorrow.

 

Much warmer by late next week!!!!!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little bored today and looking up some all time records. And some i find to be truly astounding.  In the month of July in Cedar Rapids, a record high has been broken only ONE single time since 1940.  That was in 2012.  Incredible.  

 

And if you look at Burlington, IA they had 14 consecutive days in 1936 with record highs, and more amazing is all 14 still stand today.  From July 4th through the 17th.  The last record high broken in July in Burlington was in 1988.  Incredible stuff.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/climategraph_month_image_table_cid

 

July Records.PNG

 

Burlington.PNG

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to see the forecasted high temperatures per day, but for the life of me I cannot find a good map of this on any weather model website.  If somebody knows of one let me know. 

 

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/max-temp-2m-6h/20200508-0000z.html

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very gusty winds out there......Wind Speed W 18 G 31 mph. Arctic Air on the move! Crazy!

 

 

Watch your home folks. During a "Pandemic", people tend to do stupid things. Looks like somebody tried to mess w my gates in front of my home last nite as my cameras got them. Punkasses are lucky they did not succeed! They would have NOT made it out!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last time NYC dipped into the 30s in May was in 1978! WOW! Looks like it will happen this weekend for them w possible snowshowers in the city itself.

 

Big snowstorm for New England. As much as a ft of snow will fall in spots. Historic Snowstorm on the way for them.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro once again backing off on the warmup.  It seems the 00z runs are showing the warmth and the 12z runs keeps it cooler.  GFS has been more consistent with the warming trend, I can only hope that the GFS is correct.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 1

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    2. 5707

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 375

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5707

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5707

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...