May 2020 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim 1863]

This could be a tough weekend for the area fruit farmers and for us the consumers later in the year. The NWS is still thinking that the lows could be in the low to mid 20’s this weekend and even some upper teens look to be in play. The critical temperatures are 28 and below for a lot damage and if it gets below 24 for several hours it could be nearly complete damage to most fruit for this year. It looks like to our north the colder April has held back the budding and thus there looks to be less chance of any major damage.

[St Paul Storm 4028]

The Euro says, Happy Mother’s Day! My wife will NOT be a happy mom if this verifies...

 

Edit: GFS says, let’s do it. Yikes.

[bud2380 3520]

Euro has now backed off on the warmup in the long term.  Only gets temps in the low 60s now on the 14th and 15th.  Hopefully that's an aberration.  

[Tom 16887]

Torching today...tied a record with temps hitting 106F...another hot one mañana befor we see temps step ladder down into the 90’s, maybe low 90’s mid next week???

[Madtown 1092]

Little chilly in the northwoods and only getting chillier!

[westMJim 1863]

It is clear and 39 here at this time. While in the SW it is going to be record heat here in the Great Lakes that is not going to be the case. This is from this mornings GRR discussion and it is not  pretty

"TEMPERATURES  

ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. FRUIT TREES  
IN OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS, FROM GRR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE MOST  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD AS THESE ARE THE ZONES THAT HAVE THE FURTHEST  
DEVELOPMENT. THE FREEZE WARNING IS FOR ALL ZONES THAT ARE CURRENTLY  
ACTIVE/IN THE GROWING SEASON, ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM  
PENTWATER TO ALMA.  
 
AS A SIDE NOTE ON THE COLD, 850MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT AS COLD AS IT GETS. THE ECMWF IS  
FORECASTING -11 TO -13C AIR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA.  
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WEBSITE THIS WILL BE ABOUT  
THE COLDEST IT HAS EVER BEEN AND SOUNDING RECORDS FOR DTX GO BACK  
TO THE 1940S, INCLUDING DTX/MTC AND FNT AS SOUNDING SITES."

[Tom 16887]

From Excessive Heat Warnings in the desert Southwest to Freeze Warnings/Watch's in the MW/Gl's....our nation remains divided (even in the wx dept)...looks like back home a Hard Freeze is in the cards with near record cold.

 

[Tom 16887]

The JMA weeklies are in this morning and are advertising quite a wet signal for the majority of our Sub.  As average high temps continue to climb, near seasonal norms will start "feeling" much better as we progress through the rest of met Spring.

 

Week 2...

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4...

 

 

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Freeze Watch in effect for Saturday morning. Freeze Warning in effect here for tomorrow morning. Temps as low as 28F expected. Thankfully the UHI should protect the metro from falling lower than 30F. Additional freeze/frost possible each day into Tuesday.

 

Critical fire weather today with RH as low as 15%. We’re very dry so far this spring, with no big precip chances on the horizon. I’m about to whip out the sprinklers and start watering my lawn. Quite the change from the last few years when we set precip records in April and May.

[Tom 16887]

Freeze Watch in effect for Saturday morning. Freeze Warning in effect here for tomorrow morning. Temps as low as 28F expected. Thankfully the UHI should protect the metro from falling lower than 30F. Additional freeze/frost possible each day into Tuesday.

 

Critical fire weather today with RH as low as 15%. We’re very dry so far this spring, with no big precip chances on the horizon. I’m about to whip out the sprinklers and start watering my lawn. Quite the change from the last few years when we set precip records in April and May.

If this indeed is a trend, the blocking pattern up north could persist throughout the Summer and leave you guys up north high and dry.  I'm pretty sure once the "ring of fire" pattern sets up at times this summer you can score some well-timed bouts of severe wx.  Last night's model trends have gotten cooler and drier for our northern tier and warmer/wetter for our southern members.  It remains to be seen if a well-timed warm up transpires for Memorial Day weekend.  The EPS says "yes", while the GEFS say "no"...CFSv2/JMA also say "no"....I hope it does get warmer and more enjoyable for you guys.

[westMJim 1863]

We will have to see just how cold it really gets on Friday and for the next several days after. At this time a high of 43 per the NWS is in the forecast for tomorrow. The record coldest maximum for May 8th is 41 set in 1947 when a trace of snow was also reported. In 2nd place is 44 set in 1974 in 3rd place 47 set in 1945 and in 4th place is 48 set in 1960. The low for tomorrow night is foretasted to be  27. The record low at Grand Rapids is a cold 23 set in 1974 with 27 set in 1966 in 2nd place followed by 28 in 1966 and 29 in 1977 and 1955. 

[westMJim 1863]

If this indeed is a trend, the blocking pattern up north could persist throughout the Summer and leave you guys up north high and dry.  I'm pretty sure once the "ring of fire" pattern sets up at times this summer you can score some well-timed bouts of severe wx.  Last night's model trends have gotten cooler and drier for our northern tier and warmer/wetter for our southern members.  It remains to be seen if a well-timed warm up transpires for Memorial Day weekend.  The EPS says "yes", while the GEFS say "no"...CFSv2/JMA also say "no"....I hope it does get warmer and more enjoyable for you guys.

Not sure about rain fall but as to temperatures in the past May's that have been cold have tended to cooler than averages summers. Some examples are  1945, 1960, 1974, 1997 but some have been mixed like 1947 that had cool June and July but a hot August. 1947 up and down. So we shall see how this summer goes. For me it will not be as much fun either way as I work for the local minor league baseball team and it don't look like we will be playing this year. 

[bud2380 3520]

Models continue to target a week from today as the beginning of a warmup.  Warmup to normal that is.  The 15th is when temps really get back to season averages around much of the region.  00z Euro for the 15th below.   The average high for May 15th in Cedar Rapids is 71 per the NWS, so we are finally going to be around normal.  I wish that Pivotal had a maximum temperature map.  I'd like to see the forecasted high temperatures per day, but for the life of me I cannot find a good map of this on any weather model website.  If somebody knows of one let me know.  Instant Weather Maps has it, but they only have the 5 degree contour lines and on a national scale, so it's hard to read.  

 

 

[Niko 7225]

Attm, its 54F under mostly cloudy skies. Possible record low temps likely for both Detroit and my locale as temps drop into the upper 20s in Detroit and 20-25F for MBY. Snowshowers are also possible tomorrow.

 

Much warmer by late next week!!!!!!

[bud2380 3520]

A little bored today and looking up some all time records. And some i find to be truly astounding.  In the month of July in Cedar Rapids, a record high has been broken only ONE single time since 1940.  That was in 2012.  Incredible.  

 

And if you look at Burlington, IA they had 14 consecutive days in 1936 with record highs, and more amazing is all 14 still stand today.  From July 4th through the 17th.  The last record high broken in July in Burlington was in 1988.  Incredible stuff.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/climategraph_month_image_table_cid

 

 

[FAR_Weather 5220]

Beautiful day out. The breeze and mild temp reminds me of being on the beach near San Diego. 64.8°F.

[Hawkeye 4600]

I'd like to see the forecasted high temperatures per day, but for the life of me I cannot find a good map of this on any weather model website.  If somebody knows of one let me know. 

 

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/max-temp-2m-6h/20200508-0000z.html

[Niko 7225]

Very gusty winds out there......Wind Speed W 18 G 31 mph. Arctic Air on the move! Crazy!

 

 

Watch your home folks. During a "Pandemic", people tend to do stupid things. Looks like somebody tried to mess w my gates in front of my home last nite as my cameras got them. Punkasses are lucky they did not succeed! They would have NOT made it out!

[Niko 7225]

The last time NYC dipped into the 30s in May was in 1978! WOW! Looks like it will happen this weekend for them w possible snowshowers in the city itself.

 

Big snowstorm for New England. As much as a ft of snow will fall in spots. Historic Snowstorm on the way for them.

[bud2380 3520]

12z Euro once again backing off on the warmup.  It seems the 00z runs are showing the warmth and the 12z runs keeps it cooler.  GFS has been more consistent with the warming trend, I can only hope that the GFS is correct.  

[Niko 7225]

 

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

353 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020
 

MIZ053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-080830-

/O.NEW.KDTX.FZ.W.0001.200509T0400Z-200509T1300Z/

Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-

Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

Including the cities of Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer,

Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian,

and Monroe

353 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020
 

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM

EDT SATURDAY...
 

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.
 

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan where the growing season

  has started, mainly along and south of the I-69 corridor.
 

* WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
 

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other

  sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor

  plumbing.

 

[Niko 7225]

Long duration cold advection/north-northwest winds then kick in
tonight through Saturday morning. Steep low level lapse rates
developing as 700 MB cold pool of -20 to -23 C swings through Friday
afternoon, coupled with moisture flux off the Great Lakes should be
sufficient for scattered shower activity. With 850 MB temps lowering
below -8 C, precip type should trend to all snow, but no
accumulation expected during the daytime hours, as surface temps
still sneak into the low to mid 40s with intervals of sun.

Loss of daytime heating and unfavorable northwest flow for lake
effect should lead to clearing Friday night, with lows falling into
mid/upper 20s across most locations, per 00z Euro MOS. Still could
see some snow showers across THE northern Thumb region with Lake
Superior-Michigan-Saginaw Bay connection which lingers into Saturday
morning. Trough axis exits east during Saturday, with significant
height rises and moderate amount of warm advection taking place as
850 MB temps warm to around -5 C by days end, supporting max temps in
the mid to upper 40s.

Next round of 500 MB height falls already tracking through the
Midwest Saturday night-Sunday morning, with the Euro and GFS
reversing courses, as the 00z GFS and bulk of its ensemble members
show surface low tracking through southern Lower Michigan during the
day Sunday. The 00z Euro is now slower and more compact with the
upper wave, still lingering over Iowa Sunday morning before slowly
dampening out and tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night. The
UKmet is slower like the EURO, but is significantly farther north,
tracking low along the southern Michigan border. While the Canadian
is weaker and faster, closer to the GFS. Thus, still really can`t go
likely pops or greater for a cold rain until the timing is fined
tuned. Unusually cold air for May standards then follows for early
next week, with 850 MB temps hovering in the mid negative single
numbers.

 

There is a chance for some snow to mix in or change to all snow w this system. Just amazing stuff. The big snow will be way east of my area where  NYS n New England will get the brunt of it. Hoping we can get Spring back after this cold snap. I also have a strong feeling that next Winter season will be severe. I don't have any data or science to prove it. Just a gut feeling!

[Tom 16887]

12z Euro once again backing off on the warmup.  It seems the 00z runs are showing the warmth and the 12z runs keeps it cooler.  GFS has been more consistent with the warming trend, I can only hope that the GFS is correct.  

I've noticed that difference when tracking winter storms on the Euro's 00z/12z runs.  Glad to hear I'm not the only one that notices this!

[CentralNebWeather 4715]

We had a thunderstorm here about 6:45 pm. Video from my Twitter page.

 

https://twitter.com/toddwayneveal/status/1258550790920105984?s=21

[snowstorm83 2042]

Well its definitely raining

[snowstorm83 2042]

Omega my rom she’s and I are drunk and playing in rain

[FAR_Weather 5220]

Omega my rom she’s and I are drunk and playing in rain

Usually you post in the complaint thread when you're drunk.

[St Paul Storm 4028]

For Saturday night into Sunday morning:

 

...temperatures may fall to near or below freezing Saturday evening

across central MN, changing the precip to all snow. Numerous

ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are showing accumulation,

mostly along and north of I-94, and it is certainly not out of

the question with this occurring at night. There is still much uncertainty beyond this such as where the axis

of heaviest precip will set up, how cold temps actually get, and

the timing of the transition. For now can`t really forecast more

than an inch anywhere with these factors, but it`s looking

increasingly likely 2 to maybe 3 inches fall somewhere near or

north of I-94.

[bud2380 3520]

00Z GFS brings in warmer air on the 14th and locks it in for the following 10 days. Prolonged period of temps in the 70s and some 80s in the extended. Hope that is the case

[Sparky 1778]

A little bored today and looking up some all time records. And some i find to be truly astounding.  In the month of July in Cedar Rapids, a record high has been broken only ONE single time since 1940.  That was in 2012.  Incredible.  

 

And if you look at Burlington, IA they had 14 consecutive days in 1936 with record highs, and more amazing is all 14 still stand today.  From July 4th through the 17th.  The last record high broken in July in Burlington was in 1988.  Incredible stuff.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/climategraph_month_image_table_cid

 

July Records.PNG

 

Burlington.PNG

Part of the reason is rainfall has increased quite a bit across the upper Midwest in the last few decades which increases humidity and humid air doesn't heat up as easily. They say heavy rainfall events are much more common than they used to be. Overnight lows also are warmer as a result, but highs aren't as hot.

[Tom 16887]

Looking into the extended, the models are starting to point towards a strong SW Flow aloft and an impressive summer like ridge into the central/eastern CONUS Day 10-15 and that will lead us towards Memorial Day weekend.  For those states who are still on lock down, this sorta sucks because all parks/lakes will have bans I'm sure while others will not.  We could really see a flip towards Summer by this time for a majority of the Sub Forum.

 

 

[snowstorm83 2042]

Usually you post in the complaint thread when you're drunk.

Omg I can't believed I posted here Im dying

[Niko 7225]

Light snow currently w temps at 34F. Highs today upper 30s to barely hitting the 40F mark. Freeze warning for tanite as temps drop to 20-25F.

[james1976 3976]

Waterloo will be flirting with a record low Saturday morning. Record is 27 and the forecast is 28.

[Tom 16887]

Light snow currently w temps at 34F. Highs today upper 30s to barely hitting the 40F mark. Freeze warning for tanite as temps drop to 20-25F.

This is going to be interesting to see if next Autumn our region see's some early snows and if there is indeed a short period between Last Flake and First Flake.

 

Meanwhile, some record lows being set across the Upper MW/GL's which sets the tone over the next few days.

[westMJim 1863]

At this time the official reading at GRR is 36. Here at my house it is 38 with partly cloudy skies. The DP is currently in the teens that and the wind just makes it feel that much colder. Today will be one of the coldest maximums for this date. The record coldest high for today is 41 set in 1947. The forecast high for today is at 42. The average high for today is 67. The record high for today is a warm 89 set in 1926. The record low for tomorrow AM is 23 set in 1947. In 2nd place is 27 set in 1966.

[Niko 7225]

This is going to be interesting to see if next Autumn our region see's some early snows and if there is indeed a short period between Last Flake and First Flake.

 

Meanwhile, some record lows being set across the Upper MW/GL's which sets the tone over the next few days.

I have a strong feeling we will see early snows (although not sure if that bodes well for our entire Winter season) but, very cold temperatures to follow and snowy conditions could be possible. Late season cold and snow usually leads towards that way, or most of the time.

[Niko 7225]

Tom,

 

What is interesting also is that not only do we break record low temperatures here in Detroit today, but also snowfall record as well.

 

Note: Interestingly, today's record snowfall for Detroit is a trace, set back in 1947, so any snow Detroit gets today, or even flurries for that matter, will tie our daily record snowfall. Today will be a day of broken records in the Metro area.

[CentralNebWeather 4715]

Temp got down to 37 this morning and forecast low for Sunday morning is 31.

[bud2380 3520]

Anyone want to go to Maine?

 

[FAR_Weather 5220]

The Nashville area is seeing freezing temps tonight. This HAS to be very close to the record for latest freeze down there, if it isn't the actual record.

[Hawkeye 4600]

At least over here the temp should only reach the low 30s as sunrise nears.  Michigan may be in the 20s all night.

[Niko 7225]

The Nashville area is seeing freezing temps tonight. This HAS to be very close to the record for latest freeze down there, if it isn't the actual record.

Impressive coldspell for this time of the year. This cold air is coming straight from the north pole. Crazy stuff. Lots of records are going to be broken.

[Niko 7225]

Attm, its 37F under cloudy skies w snowflurries on and off.

[Tom 16887]

At least over here the temp should only reach the low 30s as sunrise nears. Michigan may be in the 20s all night.

Michigan will really bear the brunt of this cold spell and hurt their crop. I’m worried it may be devastating. Europe saw a lot of crop failures last Spring and caused prices to spike and food shortages.

[westMJim 1863]

At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 41 the DP is only 13 at this time and with winds gusting to 30 MPH yes there is a wind chill. And at 2 PM the report from Bellaire. MI was heavy snow with a temperature of 29. And at the Sault it was 31 with light snow falling. Not a nice day for the merry month of May.

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Still looks like accumulating snow a real possibility for Saturday night. Currently 0.5” of snow in the point but higher totals very possible. The last flakes flew on May 19th last year, so sadly this would be an improvement

[Tom 16887]

At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 41 the DP is only 13 at this time and with winds gusting to 30 MPH yes there is a wind chill. And at 2 PM the report from Bellaire. MI was heavy snow with a temperature of 29. And at the Sault it was 31 with light snow falling. Not a nice day for the merry month of May.

That is true Arctic origin air my friend!  Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance?  I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

[westMJim 1863]

That is true Arctic origin air my friend!  Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance?  I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

I was wondering this same. No I have not seen him on here for a while. 

[FAR_Weather 5220]

That is true Arctic origin air my friend!  Question, I've been thinking about Jaster lately, have you heard from him by any chance?  I pray nothing happened to him during this COVID-19 outbreak.

I find myself "forgetting" about the forum during periods of boring weather, I hope that's the case with him.