May 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Today turned from washout to nothing.  The HRRR and NAM now don't give us much of anything until Sunday morning.  Rain totals are coming down quite a bit, too, with most of it falling well nw and southeast.

[Niko]

Flood Watch

Flood WatchNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI304 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170800-/O.NEW.KDTX.FA.A.0004.200517T1200Z-200518T1500Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro,Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac,Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe304 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAYMORNING...The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a* Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Michigan, including the  following areas, Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee,  Livingston, Macomb, Midland, Monroe, Oakland, Saginaw, Sanilac,  Shiawassee, St. Clair, Tuscola, Washtenaw, and Wayne.* From Sunday morning through Monday morning* Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring moderate  to heavy rainfall at times from Sunday into Monday morning as low  pressure encroaches on the area. Rainfall totals of up to 2  inches will be possible in many locations during that time frame  with locally higher amounts not out of the question due to  thunderstorm activity or persistent heavy rain in any given  location. This may lead to localized flooding, especially given  the wet soil from recent heavy rain.* Flooding of roads and streets may occur, especially in urban and  other prone areas. Small creeks and rivers will rise considerably  with some possibly overflowing their banks.

Well, bring it on Ma Nature. Its not like we cant use some water around here. Its been dry for quite sometime.

[Niko]

Clouds are on the increase w limited sunshine from what I am seeing. Temp at 66F.

[Stormhunter87]

Just went for a chase. Seconded guessed my decision to leave earlier on that cell that came up out of Lancaster. Still got to see some minor rotation but first t warning of the year.

[Tom]

Another bullseye of precip heading for my backyard???  The radar looks impressive with a stream of gulf moisture heading up from the GOM.  My cousin down in Dallas got soaked yesterday when I spoke to him.  

 

 

 

 

 

In other news, it was nice to be able to do a little bit of shopping yesterday at the stores/malls that opened up.  The only thing that I'd say was not normal is that the fitting rooms remained closed.  So basically, you have to buy your clothes on the spot, take them home and try them on, and if they don't fit you have to return them.  Sorta defeats the purpose of shopping for clothing at the stores, right??  Hopefully that changes soon.

[Stormy]

This is another lame system for here. Getting dry slotted just like models were showing lately. Still decent rainfall to keep things growing at least. But last evening I was in a small hole with nice showers and some thunder all around me. Then the heavy line moved all the way across Iowa overnight crapping out just before reaching here. Thankfully still some decent showers early this morning and might be up to around 0.40" so far.

[bud2380]

.41” reported at the high school just down the road from me. We avoided any heavy rain this week. We certainly underperformed what models showed but we still got some decent rain.

[westMJim]

Looks like there could be a lot of rain on tap for today. That means more grass cutting in the coming days. That will make a lot of exercise for some of us. Here at Grand Rapids there have only been 3 days that the mean temperature has been above average and for the month the mean is now at 49.2° and that is a departure of -7.0. At this time there is light rain falling and the current temperature here is 53°

[Tom]

In other news, the sun remains very quite to date during this solar minimum and after a quick glance, it's very conceivable we will have a 3-peat of years with 200+ days of a spotless Sun.  Hopefully, with a developing Nina and strategically placed warm/cold pools we could finally see some interesting winter seasons.  Could low Solar and colder oceans contribute to a decadal shift in the globe's temp??  It'll be interesting to see what the "Roaring 20's" will bring, yes, I do  believe after we get through this pandemic the future is brighter than ever.  

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 14 days
2020 total: 105 days (77%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)

 

 

In literally a one month period, from April 17th to today, the ENSO 3.4 region has gone from a weak Nino (+0.65C) to  -0.278C which is about a 1 Celsius drop in water temps.  Quite the dramatic flip in temps across the equatorial PAC.

[St Paul Storm]

Just over 2” in the gauge overnight with another 1”+ expected today. Any developing drought just got squashed around here.

 

A few days ago the models showed tomorrow being our first 80F of the season. Now that’s pushed back to Friday.

[james1976]

Just over 2” in the gauge overnight with another 1”+ expected today. Any developing drought just got squashed around here.

 

A few days ago the models showed tomorrow being our first 80F of the season. Now that’s pushed back to Friday.

I'm up in St Paul this weekend and was curious how much rain has fallen. Started around suppertime yesterday and is still goin.

[Niko]

Currently at 55F under cloudy skies

[Niko]

Next week looks sunnier and getting warmer each day, especially after midweek. Temps could be approaching at 80F by next weekend.

[St Paul Storm]

I'm up in St Paul this weekend and was curious how much rain has fallen. Started around suppertime yesterday and is still goin.

Nice pivot point to keep the rain going all day it looks like. Not that you wanted that this weekend I’m sure, but I’ll take it. My grass is finally to the point that it will need to be mowed.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like next weekend might be a washout here again as a trough sets up.

[Tom]

Looks like ORD tacked on a bit over 1.2" of rain thus far with another possible 1-2" on the way this afternoon!  Holy smokes it must be soggy back home.

[james1976]

Nice pivot point to keep the rain going all day it looks like. Not that you wanted that this weekend I’m sure, but I’ll take it. My grass is finally to the point that it will need to be mowed.

I dont mind it! We actually mowed the lawn yesterday up here. All the neighbors have so we knocked it out. This defo band means business!

[james1976]

This would make for a serious Twin Cities snowstorm!

[Tom]

Nice looking spin on viz satellite right over DSM...like you said James, this would be a redic winter storm...only IF!

 

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis_sqrt/goes16_mw_3h.html

[Tom]

I'm about to go hit up the pool for a bit but before I do that I checked the NWS page and LOT posted this graphic.  Another 2-5" of rain??? Rain, Rain, Go away...many people are going to have some serious flooding later tonight, esp those in the city where it could get nasty.

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Bout time.

 

 

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

238 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

 

 

.Moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico region will overspread the

area tonight through Monday night ahead of a cold front that will

move in from the west on Monday. The front will be very slow

moving and will likely focus showers and thunderstorms over the

same area for an extended period of time. This may result in

flooding in the area.

 

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-180245-

/O.NEW.KCLE.FA.A.0002.200518T0800Z-200519T1400Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-

Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Marion-Morrow-Knox-

Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,

Fremont, Sandusky, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Upper Sandusky,

Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Marion, Mount Gilead,

and Mount Vernon

238 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

 

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING...

 

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

 

* Flood Watch for portions of north central Ohio and northwest

  Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio,

  Ashland, Crawford, Erie, Huron, Knox, Marion, Morrow, and

  Richland. In northwest Ohio, Hancock, Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky,

  Seneca, Wood, and Wyandot.

 

* From late tonight through Tuesday morning

 

* Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall to

  the area beginning late tonight. The showers and thunderstorms

  will likely continue Monday and Monday night before moving out

  of the area. From 2 to 3 inches are expected in the area with

  locally heavier amounts possible.

 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.

Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood

warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to

take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding

develops.

[Tom]

Bout time.

It's not often you see almost the entire state of MI under a Flood Watch...

[Minny_Weather]

It's not often you see almost the entire state of MI under a Flood Watch...

Forgot the UP!

[Stormy]

Forgot the UP!

Tom mentioned "almost" though so he might have thought about that.

[Stormy]

Looks like ORD tacked on a bit over 1.2" of rain thus far with another possible 1-2" on the way this afternoon!  Holy smokes it must be soggy back home.

Yes Illinois is getting much more rainfall than Ia. Actually maybe to much now.

[Niko]

Attm, 57F w rain

[westMJim]

I am now up to 0.75" of rain fall. With rain still falling it is now 55° 

[james1976]

That defo band up here in the cities is just relentless

[Tom]

Forgot the UP!

I was thinking about that but I shoulda said the “lower peninsula” to be more clear.

[Minny_Weather]

That defo band up here in the cities is just relentless

Wow. That'd have insane snow accumulations if it were March.

[St Paul Storm]

This would make for a serious Twin Cities snowstorm!

MPX tweeted out the hypothetical snow map just for fun. We’d be approaching 18” of snow right now.

 

Meanwhile the wind chill is down to 47F. Today is a dreadful wx day.

[St Paul Storm]

Should be pointed out that the RAP and HRRR both had the defo band basically south of the metro, more towards Red Wing/Rochester, as late as this mornings hourly runs. Areas down there got caught up in the dry slot instead. Even the rapid refresh models fail with some regularity.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.58" overnight.  This is the way spring has gone.  QC to Chicago gets 1-4", we get a few tenths, maybe 0.75" at best.  I don't mind getting less because I have a lot of garden/yard work to do, but I'd like to get into the heavier stuff once the calendar flips to June.

[westMJim]

The rain has become heaver here and I am now up to 1.16" of rain 

[Niko]

Cloudy rain ended temporarily. Temp at 57F. Not alotta rain today as forecasted.

[St Paul Storm]

Still light rain but looks to be pretty much wrapped up. I have 3.1” in the gauge. Now let’s fire up the warm weather and kick start Spring.

[james1976]

Just got home. Dumped out 1.3" from my gauge.

[Stormy]

Rained 0.20" more overnight for a total of 0.64".

[Hawkeye]

Another couple tenths here last night bumped my final total to 0.76".

[Tom]

No joke, this has been an incredibly wet week for Chicago and another daily record breaking rainfall yesterday (2.72")...I had a bad feeling about this system for the city of Chicago and there are some wild video's on social media showing major flooding in the city proper.  I've never seen the Chicago river flood into the streets!

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1262186406920761344

 

Marina City is completely under water...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1262183503325773826

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The last 3 years in the month of May have been extremely wet....