May 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Courtesy from @BAMWx...

 

 

[Niko]

Rainy conditions currently w temps holding in the 50s

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

341 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020
 

MIZ048-049-054-055-063-070-076-083-182000-

Bay-Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-St. Clair-Macomb-Wayne-Monroe-

341 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
 

A Flood Watch remains in effect tonight. There is a chance for

thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. There is a small potential for

large hail to 1 inch south of I 94 as storms move to the northeast at

40 mph.
 

A Lakeshore Flood Warning is in effect. Please see the latest

lakeshore hazard message for details. A Flood Warning is also in

effect for the St Clair River.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
 

A Flood Watch remains in effect Monday. Low confidence exists on

timing and coverage of thunderstorm activity Monday, however the

potential does exist for strong to severe thunderstorm development

from I 94 south during the afternoon and evening.

 

[Niko]

Looks like the rain will finally come to an end by Tuesday. Temps do warm up slightly and eventually near 80F by the weekend. Some scattered showers will be possible ocassionally. No severe weather expected at this time throughout the week.

 

Also, TS Arthur is expected to clip the North Carolina Outer Banks b4 making a turn for the Bermuda area as a weaker storm ( definitely an impotent system) for them. I guess that is good news.

[westMJim]

I recorded 2.89" of rain for this event so far. At this time it is just cloudy here with a temperature of 57. With all this rain there is going to be a large crop of mosquitoes in a few weeks.

[Hawkeye]

We are also stuck in the low to mid 50s with clouds and a few showers.  This slow-moving system delayed the big warmup for a few days.

[Niko]

Attm, its windy w occasional rain and temps rather cool for this time of the year. Its 55F atm.

[bud2380]

The GFS shows temps hanging in the low to mid 60s all week now, even on Friday, which it previously showed temps close to 80.  It keeps the 70s at bay until Saturday now.  Terrible.  Last night's Euro was much more favorable with temps getting to near 70 by Wednesday.  12z Euro running now, hopefully it doesn't back down on the earlier warm up.  The GFS showed a cold rain moving through Friday, which destroys the warm up.  

[Beltrami Island]

I have quite the contrast from most of this sub today  It's also really weird to have such a dry, strong, easterly wind as well. 

 

...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

Dry conditions are expected this afternoon with minimum relative
humidity values of 20 to 30 percent. Winds this afternoon will be
20 to 30 mph gusting to 40 mph out of the east to southeast this
afternoon, highest in the Devils Lake basin. The combination of
dry conditions and gusty winds will create near-critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon. Please follow guidance from
local authorities and consider moving burning activities to
another day.

[Niko]

A bit of a small break now, but more hvy rain is coming by looking at the radar. This was needed rainfall. Temp now is still in the cool 50s.

[bud2380]

Euro shows high of 70 in Iowa City tomorrow. NAM and GFS have temps in the low 60s.  

 

 

[bud2380]

High Temps forecast this week for Iowa City, IA

 

[Minny_Weather]

Been seeing pretty consistent heavy rain here for the past couple hours. 56.3*F.

[Tom]

There's no doubt that Chicago will smash the May record for rainfall by this weekend.  We are currently sitting in the #3 spot and the recent top 3 years are the previous consecutive years!  Incredible stat.  #MayMonsoon

 

Edit: Just checked the latest info and Chitown did in fact break the record yesterday and tacked on additional rain bringing the monthly total up to 8.22"

 

[Tom]

A rather strong signal that the heartland of the nation that has been abnormally dry will get very WET as MUCH needed rainfall is expected through MDW.  I love it when nature balances things out.

 

 

[Niko]

Hvy rain currently w temps in the 50s. Detroit Metro has picked up so far in 24hrs 1.71" w more to come b4 ended later today. The progression of the low pressure movement is kinda awkward (moving due SE, which is making precip coming from the east). Funny thing is that it might try to move back north a smidge again in the coming days, which could give slight rain chances. Sunshine will be the dominate feature though. A few storms might be possible on (Monday MDW), otherwise, it is looking like a fairly decent holiday weekend (weatherwise).

[Hawkeye]

Another cloudy, breezy, chilly day today.  Welcome to spring 2020.

[Tom]

It appears Chicago added more precip through 4:00am...

 

 

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NWS Chicago

@NWSChicago

 

The May precipitation record for Chicago has been broken with the 0.11" observed today at O'Hare through 4am, pushing the monthly total to 8.30". This passes the previous record of 8.25" set just last year. This also marks three straight years of setting new May precip records.

[Niko]

Detroit Metro Airport broke a record rainfall and thus far has received 1.71",which eclipsed the old May18th daily rainfall record of 1.50", set back in 2000 and Macomb county coastline is 63 to 66 inches above low water datum. Alotta flooding out there. Its wild out there y'all.

 

This month has been all about breaking records in Detroit (from snowfall, rainfall, cold temps, record low high temps, you name it)

[westMJim]

May 2020 started out cool and dry but in the last week it has become very wet. For the month the mean temperature is 49.8° and that is good for a departure of -6.8°. There have been only 3 days with a above average mean temperature. For the month so far just 4 days have had highs of above average and 5 nights of warmer than average lows. And so far 3.76” of rain has fallen at Grand Rapids (3.98” is average for the whole month)  At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 58. For today the average High/Low is 71/49. If the weekends high in the upper 70’s and low 80’s pan out it will feel very summer like around here for a change.

[Bryan1117]

A rather strong signal that the heartland of the nation that has been abnormally dry will get very WET as MUCH needed rainfall is expected through MDW. I love it when nature balances things out.

 

We can use any rain we can get here in Omaha as well as the rest of Eastern Nebraska this weekend, even though of course it will come during the Memorial Day Weekend.

 

We are currently trending around 4 inches of precipitation below average right now.

[Niko]

Looks like the center of circulation is in the far southern regions of Indiana, which means better news for SEMI. Some spotty showers still coming in from the east, but as this LP area continues to move further SE, these raindrops will eventually come to an end.

 

This woulda been a super winterstorm had it been Winter. Probably measuring in '.

[Tom]

We can use any rain we can get here in Omaha as well as the rest of Eastern Nebraska this weekend, even though of course it will come during the Memorial Day Weekend.

 

We are currently trending around 4 inches of precipitation below average right now.

Yikes!  I'm sure many of those across the MW would like to share the wealth and bring you some needed precip.  Hoping that is the case this weekend!  Could be some decent boomers around your region Fri/Sat.

[bud2380]

GFS shows cloud cover all week now. No clearing until Saturday

[Hawkeye]

GFS shows cloud cover all week now. No clearing until Saturday

 

Yep, this big cutoff low ruined a few days, for sure.  We were expecting to be basking in warm sunshine by now.

[Hawkeye]

The temp was in the low 50s when I woke up this morning.  It is still only 56º.  The thick clouds are really doing a job on the warm-up.

[bud2380]

The Euro continues to be overly optimistic with temps.  Shows a high of 66 today, despite the temp being in the  mid to upper 50s still.  Tomorrow it shows 71 again.  I don't see it getting that warm unless this cloud cover significantly decreases. And that doesn't look too likely based on the satellite.

 

 

[bud2380]

All models are showing that by Saturday things should really start to warm up at least (GFS with highs of around 80 and Euro about 78 in Iowa City). So looks like we will finally get our warmup.  Just about a week late though.  Although if we get lucky the weather could be pretty decent as early as Thursday if we can get some decreased cloud cover.  I wouldn't bet on it right now though.  Euro has temps around 70 while GFS has mid 60s and cloudy. 

[St Paul Storm]

Was supposed to be cloudy with a high of 67 today. Instead it’s been mostly sunny and currently 72F. The massive warmup seems to be getting delayed once again, and temps are no where as warm as they once were.

[Hawkeye]

If anyone is interested, there's a PBS show about Ted Fujita on right now (8pm CDT).

[Tom]

It's a very cool 54F this morning, one of the coolest nights in recent weeks...the cold spot in the state is up near the Grand Canyon where its a weee bit chilly:

 

Current conditions at Grand Canyon National Park Airport (KGCN)Lat: 35.94582°NLon: 112.15538°WElev: 6598ft.

Clear

25°F

-4°C

 

 

 

Our brief cool spell won't last to long but at least we'll enjoy temps today in the 80's as they slowly climb into the mid 90's by the weekend (94F is normal).  By Memorial Day, triple digits are back and the hottest temps of the season are in the forecast later next week.

[Hawkeye]

Cloudy, windy, cool.... cloudy, windy, cool.... cloudy, windy, cool.... 

[westMJim]

 Here in Michigan. There is major flooding going on today in Midland. Two dams broke on the  Tittabawassee River. The Tittabawassee River in Midland is 34.72 feet at 8:45 a.m. The flood stage is 24 feet. The river is projected to crest at 38 feet at midnight Wednesday night, according to the NWS. However, city officials expect the river to crest sooner than that, at 8 p.m. Wednesday. M-20 is closed between Main Street and Meridian in both directions. The M-30 bridge near Stryker's Lakeside Marina is washed out. U.S. 10 was closed in Sanford. I take M 20 thru Midland on my way to Bay City so I know this area rather well.

[westMJim]

Has anyone else noticed how some of the trees are late this year in getting all of their leaves on them. And looking at the web cams from the UP.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

and

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

They are really late this year up there.

[bud2380]

Cloudy, windy, cool.... cloudy, windy, cool.... cloudy, windy, cool.... 

 

Yeah it has not been a nice spring here at all.  A day or two here and there have been nice, but more cool than not.  That's why I keep checking the models for the warm up and it just keeps getting delayed, delayed, delayed.  If we can't get these clouds out of here, i'm not sure we'll ever hit 70.  

[Yerf]

90% of the country is covered in clouds.  ugh

 

[Tom]

90% of the country is covered in clouds. ugh

Solar Minimim effects? Increase in cosmic rays cause more cloud cover. Wonder if this is just a temp trend or long term trend.

[Niko]

Lots of sunshine here in SEMI today under deep, blue skies. Temp is hovering at 63F. Absolutely gorgeous outside.

[Niko]

https://www.sciencealert.com/we-re-about-to-experience-solar-minimum-here-s-what-that-really-means

[james1976]

Its gotta be the slowest cutoff low in a long time. Covers a wide area too.